WNBA Dissected 2023 Week 12: To extend or not to extend, Liberty challenge Aces, and more
The favorites for the 2023 WNBA title stumble slightly, extension decisions for teams and players, and more from around the league this week
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Deal With It
The WNBA trade deadline hit on Monday night and you could be easily forgiven for failing to notice. To say it passed with a whimper would be granting it an overly-generous level of drama, given there was no activity whatsoever. Outside of the occasional hypothetical article or podcast, there weren't even any rumors or whispers of activity. I've detailed the reasons behind that many times in the past, so we won't dive in again, except to say that I hope the league realizes they should fix this. Trades - and even just the genuine possibility of trades - drive interest and discussion. It's a key part of how the NBA stays in the popular sports discussion even when there are no games being played for several months in the offseason. A minor tweak or two to the rules - don't count hardship deals on the team salary cap, require teams to carry 12 players instead of 11 or 12, count all minimum deals as the same value in cap terms - could significantly increase the possibilities of trades. It shouldn't be hard.
With the trade deadline behind us, there's one significant procedural element remaining that could still provide some interest over the remainder of the season: Extensions. Rookie scale extensions had to be done by May 15 but veteran extensions remain legal until the end of the regular season, and there are a host of players that teams would probably like to lock up for future years. The question in most cases is whether the player feels the same way.
There’s an array of star and near-star players heading for unrestricted free agency in the offseason. Several of them are also ineligible to be cored because they've already reached the limit of two seasons played under a contract signed while cored, so there's no way for their existing team to block them from gaining that UFA status - unless the player agrees to an extension beforehand. Kahleah Copper, DeWanna Bonner, Candace Parker, Nneka Ogwumike, Jonquel Jones, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Brittney Griner and Jewell Loyd are all in this situation. Some are obviously less likely to be interested in extensions than others. The relationship between Diggins-Smith and the Mercury seems to have entirely broken down, so they will presumably be going their separate ways at the end of the year. Parker may well consider retirement again. There's also the element that extensions can only start at a maximum of 120% of the final year of the existing deal. So if the player took a discount to sign their current deal - as Parker, Ogwumike and Griner all did - the amount they could receive in an extension is less than if they wait to become a UFA and then sign an entirely new deal.
Some of the group are probably quite looking forward to the experience of true free agency. The last time Copper and Loyd were heading for free agency there were other stars on their squads who were options to be cored instead, but the teams chose to tag them. Both agreed two-year deals at the time, and both are on rosters that now look vastly different from when they signed those contracts. They probably want to at least hear what's on offer elsewhere. However, in at least a couple of cases, it feels like players might be interested in getting something done. Bonner has had a lot of success in Connecticut, is in the middle of one of the best seasons of her career, and recently got engaged to her frontcourt partner who's already under contract with the Sun through 2024. Jonquel Jones chose New York over various other teams who wanted to trade for her in the offseason, and after a slightly rocky start hampered by injury appears to have settled in nicely. Both Bonner and Jones are on enough this year that an extension could start at anything up to the supermax. However, that could be the issue - the money. Despite her excellent season, Bonner is about to turn 36 and the list of players who've remained elite at that kind of age is perilously short. Both Connecticut and New York have battled tight cap situations and have multiple pieces to worry about fitting in when the offseason hits. So finding the right number that satisfies everyone could be tricky. But don't be surprised if we see one or two deals done before the end of the season. Teams don't like to have too many uncertainties going into the offseason if they can avoid them.
Beyond that uncoreable group, names like Breanna Stewart, Elena Delle Donne, Brionna Jones, Kayla McBride, Betnijah Laney, Gabby Williams, Ariel Atkins and Natasha Cloud are also heading for unrestricted free agency - but all could be cored by their existing teams if the franchises chose to do so. Stewart in particular is in an unusual situation where she may want to be cored. Firstly, if she signed for at least two years after being cored, she could not be cored again for the rest of her career (barring a rule change in a future Collective Bargaining Agreement). So assuming she currently wants to stay in New York, it would be a good time to get those years crossed off. Secondly, being cored is the only way Stewart could become eligible for the supermax. Because she changed team by choice in the last two years, Stewart does not count as a 'Qualifying Veteran Free Agent' under the letter of the CBA, so the only criteria she can meet to be eligible for the supermax is to be cored by the Liberty. Of course, this may not matter to her. She took less than the regular max this year to allow the numbers to work and the pieces to fit in New York and may be willing to do that again. But if that was a one-time discount and she's expecting to receive every possible cent in future seasons, she'd need to be cored.
Some of the other names mentioned above aren't eligible to extend their current contracts. The CBA implies that one-year and Rest-of-Season deals cannot be extended, which would rule out Jones and Williams. In other cases, the teams may want to retain the player but not be sure what they'd be willing to offer until other pieces become clear in the offseason, which could restrict deals with Laney and McBride. Washington seems like a situation where something might happen. The Mystics would probably like to extend at least one of their key veterans because they can't core everyone so there'd be uncertainty around retaining that core, however happy they may all seem to be with the franchise at the moment. Delle Donne, Atkins and Cloud would all draw significant interest around the league and it might even be a tricky decision as to which to core (Delle Donne is the superstar but a constant injury-risk and may be less inclined to leave an organization she chose than Atkins, who's never had the choice). The teams have until Sept. 10 to try to work all of this out.
Clash of the Titans, Again
The biggest game of the last week saw what should've been a preview of the biggest game of the upcoming week, but turned into a demolition when New York pulled away from Las Vegas in the third quarter of their clash, leading to an eventual 38-point blowout win. It was hard to avoid the feeling of it being a 'statement win' for the Liberty, trying to make it clear that they should be considered a challenger to the Aces rather than one of the many potential victims on the inevitable route to back-to-back Las Vegas championships. They have two more regular season matchups on the schedule in August, but before that there's the small matter of the Commissioner's Cup final in Las Vegas on Tuesday night.
While Becky Hammon and the Aces won't be ignoring what happened on Sunday, it's fairly easy to put it down to a bad night when it’s only one game. The Liberty forced A'ja Wilson into a lot of tough shots, but shots that she makes in most games. Whatever you're doing defensively, Wilson and Kelsey Plum aren't going to combine to shoot 6-for-30 on many nights. Sabrina Ionescu has been shooting the lights out from outside all year long, but 12-for-19 from the field including 6-for-10 from three was an exceptional outing even by her standards. It is, to borrow an oft-used phrase, a make-or-miss league. Some nights they make and you miss.
However, the potential adjustments are going to be fascinating. If you watch all her shots back, when Ionescu got rolling early in the game you can see Plum trailing her hip around ball-screens or handoffs on nearly every play. The Aces mixed it up with alternative defenders and more frequent switching as the game wore on, but by then it felt like Ionescu was shooting into the ocean from the side of a boat. Plum's become a good defender in recent years, but they could start Jackie Young on Ionescu instead or change the scheme to give Plum more help from the outset. But then you risk leaving more room for someone like Breanna Stewart or Jonquel Jones to light you up instead. It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Hammon trust that they had the idea right in the first place and just got unlucky. The adjustment could be not to adjust, at least until you have more than one night of evidence.
Perhaps the even more interesting element is the other side of the ball. The numbers say the bigger gap between the Aces and the rest this year is on offense rather than defense, but where they've made their leap from the 2022 championship team is on the defensive end. They've stood above the rest of the league in 2023 not just due to their elite offense but because all their key pieces are genuine two-way players these days. For much of the season New York haven't been able to match that, but on Sunday night they very much did. The contests on Wilson worked, Plum couldn't get going, and Young and Chelsea Gray couldn't produce enough to compensate. It's the defensive activity and energy that can drag New York up to Las Vegas's level if they can have anything close to that amount of success on a repeatable basis.
You also have to wonder if the Aces are wearing down a little. They had a bounce-back reaction win over Dallas two days after the Liberty loss, but the rotation is down to 6 1/2 players that Hammon actually wants to use with Candace Parker out indefinitely and Riquna Williams unlikely to ever play for the Aces again. Even when you limit the minutes somewhat by winning a lot of games in blowouts, that's a heavy load to put on your core players for 40 games. It shouldn't matter much for the cup final next week, but could it matter for a potential Finals matchup in October? Possibly.
The fun part is that even if the Aces win the final on Tuesday, the Liberty have at least shown that they can beat them, and comprehensively too. If you'd already started to lose interest in the 2023 season because it seemed like a one-horse race, maybe you're back to paying a little more attention now. Tuesday night may just be the next chapter in the tale that becomes the story of the 2023 WNBA season.
In the Zone
This is the very first possession of Tuesday night's game between Las Vegas and Dallas:
The Aces are in a 3-2 zone which occasionally wheels around to look like a 2-3, and it wasn't a gimmick like when Cheryl Reeve used to run one possession of zone to open games with the Lynx, before spending 98% of the remainder in man-to-man. Vegas stayed in that zone for most of the first half and dominated the Wings on their way to a 28-point halftime lead.
While teams are likely using it against Dallas because they're not scared of the Wings' outside shooting - which is why opponents would be reluctant to try it against the Aces or Liberty in particular - it's interesting to see an increasing willingness to experiment with zones and use them for extended periods rather than an occasional possession. We've also seen much more variation in types of zone this year around the league than in previous eras. For a long time, most teams had a basic 2-3 zone they could drop into if they had to but would only resort to it if everything else was failing, and they weren't good at executing it due to the lack of practice. This year we've seen everything from 3-2s and 2-3s to 1-3-1s and an occasional box-and-1. The Aces are also in a better position to make it work because the core of their team has been together for years now (and additions like Alysha Clark are smart enough to blend in seamlessly). They know when to rotate and help, when they need to slip into man-to-man if there hasn't been time to set up the zone, and everyone buys into the collective responsibility of defense. You keep your eyes open and fill in the next hole, trusting your teammates behind you to fill whatever gap that leaves. The same basic elements apply regardless of the type of defensive structure.
From a neutral point of view, it simply makes things more interesting to see teams willing to try some variation rather than offering the same two or three possibilities of pick-and-roll defense and man-to-man chasing with some switching. The Wings will get more prepared for zones as teams increasingly use the tactic against them, but that game showed how well a shake-up in approach can work. It doesn't always have to be for that long, but mixing in different options can help throw the other team off. If they're not sure what you're going to do, you've won half the battle.
Shoot till your arm falls off
This is the first column since this happened last Thursday night, where Diana Taurasi eclipsed the 10,000-point mark. Plenty has already been said and written by many people, but it felt like it had to be mentioned. She's so far clear of the pack it's frankly a little ridiculous. No one else has ever broken 7,500, never mind threatened 10k. Only 22 other players have made it to 5,000. When a well-respected WNBA historian updated his statistical projections at the start of this season, only six other players registered any chance at ever reaching 10,000 and none was above a 22% chance. Records are made to be broken, as Taurasi has often acknowledged herself, but some of hers are going to be around for quite a while.
Of course she did it in style with a 42-point explosion, her highest total in over a decade. Would you expect anything less? Her Mercury teams haven't always been great, but they've rarely been boring. Beyond the scoring and the records that will be a central part of Taurasi's legacy. The approach, the attitude, the panache that sometimes upset opposing teams or fans but drew in countless more on her side. 10,000 is just a number, but it's a nice one to recognise. We should pay attention to these legends while they're still around, not just celebrate them when they're heading out the door. Especially when they're setting targets that might not be hit for at least another decade or two.
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With the longer seasons the chances of other current players reached 10k will increase
Thanks, as always, for a very informative article. Your suggestions for improving the league are thoughtful and realistic.