WNBA Dissected 2023: Mock Expansion Special
With an announcement regarding WNBA expansion looking imminent, we look at who might stock a new roster if old expansion draft rules were used again
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After many, many years of arguments and requests, debates and shortlists, we finally appear to have traction on expansion in the WNBA. The league's social media team has been throwing out barely-cryptic tweets in recent days, and reports suggest that an announcement is imminent sometime today. So this seems like the perfect time to jump into some hypothetical mock expansion.
The WNBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement does have a section on expansion, but it doesn't stipulate very much. It basically says that the league can come up with whatever rules it likes. So we're going to take our lead from the last time they had to come up with expansion draft rules back in 2008 for the Atlanta Dream. Back then, teams were allowed to protect up to six players, preventing Atlanta from selecting them. The Dream were then allowed to choose one player, or player's rights, from each team. Within those selections, they were allowed to select one unprotected unrestricted free agent and instantly apply the core designation to that player in order to retain their rights. That was a new tweak to the expansion rules in order to try to make teams more legitimately protect their top six players. Previously, they could protect six who were under contract, while knowing that certain unrestricted free agents were going to re-sign anyway and were outside the reach of the incoming expansion team.
I've been writing a series of 2023-24 offseason guides for every team, most recently the Connecticut Sun (there are links right at the top of that one to the other nine that have already been published). Those detail where every team's roster stands heading into the offseason, or you can always check out our cap sheets which also have full details of contract situations for upcoming seasons. So you can see where everyone stands. We're now going to go team by team and look at who would probably be protected by each franchise, and therefore who might be available to be selected by a new team in an expansion draft. To be clear, none of these rules are set in stone, and even if they keep the framework they could change something vital like how many players each team gets to protect. We're also a year early if the new franchise (franchises?) starts in 2025 as expected. But it's still a fun exercise, and illustrative of the kind of roster a true expansion team might have to start with. Bear in mind that the Dream also pulled off several trades as part of their expansion draft, including one that shifted their pick in the following college draft, and one that added a pick in return for agreeing not to select certain players. All of this kind of stuff is on the table.
We're going to go in reverse order of the standings from this year, mostly because I tire of going alphabetically and this is the approximate order I wrote the offseason guides in.
Phoenix Mercury
Despite their limited roster, Phoenix immediately raise some of the interesting elements of these drafts. There could've been a question over whether they needed to protect Brittney Griner. Would an expansion team select her and risk the negative publicity if she didn't want to go? Would she threaten to simply retire if picked? But she has already played 2+ years under a contract signed while cored, which is the limit. So presumably she would be immune from being the unrestricted free agent (UFA) pick as she could not be cored (Skylar Diggins-Smith falls into the same category, although she obviously seems much less likely to return to the Mercury). That saves Phoenix a spot. So what about Diana Taurasi? Forty-one years old and again surely a danger to simply retire if chosen, would the Mercury try to save an extra spot by leaving her unprotected? Especially if the expansion team is in California where Taurasi grew up, and given that the Mercury roster isn't exactly packed with players they'd be scared to lose, I think they probably protect her. But I wouldn't be wildly shocked if they didn't. Expansion teams usually lean towards youth in their picks, hoping to build a team that can grow and maybe find a hidden gem who didn't get many chances to play elsewhere. Taurasi obviously doesn't fit that script.
Then there's the other kind of debate we'll see at multiple points in this article - players you might not mind being taken off your hands. Some teams have players on guaranteed money where the prospect of them being selected by an expansion team, opening up extra cap room to chase free agents, might actually be appealing. Brianna Turner has her talents, but do Phoenix actually want to pay her $150,000 in 2024 after scoring 3.5 points per game on fewer than three shots per contest this year? Her counting stats are better than Turner's, but I'm not sure they'd particularly mind the last two years of Moriah Jefferson's deal being taken off their hands, either.
So I have the Mercury protecting Taurasi, Sophie Cunningham, Michaela Onyenwere (cheap for another year), Jefferson (that contract's not too bad), Turner (only one more year on her deal, and someone might trade for her if they need defense), and Sug Sutton's reserved rights (showed some spark off the dribble late in the year). That would leave very little for an expansion team to choose from. Unless they're going to take Megan Gustafson or Shey Peddy as their cored UFA - which seems unlikely, given the supermax deal that comes with the tag - their only option would be Kadi Sissoko. They'd probably take her and have a look, but Sissoko didn't do anything much as a rookie this year to get excited about.
Seattle Storm
Bay Area Team X (I'm going to call them the Amazons from here on - female Warriors, get it?) might actually get a decent player here. The Storm are in a rebuild and signed some free agents last year basically to help them not be too awful (which was only semi-successful). Protecting them might not be high on the priority list.
Obviously, Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor would be protected. Having surprisingly fallen to No. 9 in this year's draft and shown some flashes of talent during the year, Jordan Horston would be as well. Then it gets less definitive, but I think they'd lean towards youth. You protect Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu because of what she might eventually become, and leave Mercedes Russell available if the Amazons want that $160,000 on their books in 2024. Similarly, Kia Nurse didn't do a lot this year and seems entirely replaceable, so if the expansion team wants her, okay. That leaves Sami Whitcomb (crowd favourite and useful veteran) and Jade Melbourne (might still become something) to protect, with one spot left.
There's not much to do with that final spot. There's a small chance that the expansion team might take Gabby Williams and core her, even though she has said she probably won't play in the WNBA in 2024 due to her commitments in France and the stricter WNBA Prioritization rules. But Seattle aren't going to core her themselves, so she's just becoming a UFA instead if she doesn't go to the Amazons. I think I'd put Williams on the end of the list anyway, and if they want to take Russell, Nurse, or the restricted rights to Joyner Holmes, so be it.
Indiana Fever
The Fever are very young and have lots of players under contract, so this is a little trickier than you might expect. Obviously, Aliyah Boston, Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith would be protected. Then it gets slightly more complicated. They signed Erica Wheeler to be their veteran lead ballhandler, but she's 32, overpaid, and only has one year left on her contract. Victoria Vivians got another chance this year and proved very little, so I doubt they'd mind too much if the Amazons took her guaranteed $137,000 in 2024 off their hands.
Grace Berger had some good moments as a rookie, while Kristy Wallace was also useful at times on the perimeter. They're still holding out hope that Lexie Hull will become that '3-and-D' wing they drafted her to be, and there were some upticks in performance this year (albeit there still need to be several more). So I think this is another one of the teams that doesn't necessarily protect their six best players. Add Berger, Wallace and Hull to the three certainties, and let the Amazons take their pick between Wheeler, Vivians, Victaria Saxton, and the reserved rights to either Maya Caldwell or Temi Fagbenle.
Los Angeles Sparks
As with Griner in Phoenix, the Sparks wouldn't have to worry about Nneka Ogwumike being selected because she's reached the core limit (also true for Jasmine Thomas, although they'd be much less worried about her being picked). I think Azurá Stevens and Lexie Brown would be top of their list to protect, expecting Brown to bounce back to her form from earlier this year if she's healthy again next season. Dearica Hamby wasn't great this season but is still only 29 and could well improve next year once she's further removed from giving birth, so she is probably also on the list. Then you start to wonder who they'd actually be worried about losing. Stephanie Talbot coming off a torn ACL? Nia Clouden having missed virtually the whole of 2023 after an unimpressive rookie year in Connecticut? Zia Cooke after a shaky rookie season?
I think the next protected name is actually Jordin Canada, who at 28 and coming off her best-ever WNBA season could well be worth selecting as the UFA pick and instantly coring. The last two spots are a crapshoot, between Talbot, Clouden, Cooke, and the draft rights to this year's second-round pick Shaneice Swain. There's even a chance they could throw Katie Lou Samuelson or Layshia Clarendon on the end of their list, although it seems much less likely the Amazons would want one of them as their UFA pick than Canada. I'd guess Talbot and Cooke, but I could believe any of them.
I presume Chiney Ogwumike would retire if selected by a team she didn't want to play for, although with a franchise in California, you never know.
Chicago Sky
This one's surprisingly tricky for a team that didn't have a great season in 2023. Obviously Kahleah Copper is top of the protected list, and after her performances for them in the paint this year, Elizabeth Williams is likely second. After that, well...
With James Wade gone, do they actually want Marina Mabrey and the $418,000 left on her deal over the next two seasons? Given the slim pickings in free agency, my guess is that they do - unless they're getting something decent back in a trade - so they probably protect her. But I wouldn't be stunned if they left Mabrey available. Isabelle Harrison has a year left on her deal after not playing a minute for the Sky this year. Might they prefer the cap space rather than paying her $160,000 next year? Then there's the promise of Dana Evans and Sika Koné, the possibilities of Li Yueru, reserved rights to Rebekah Gardner, Robyn Parks and Morgan Bertsch, restricted rights to Ruthy Hebard, and the chance that the Amazons might take Courtney Williams or Alanna Smith as their UFA pick to insta-core. I imagine that even the suspended rights to Astou Ndour or Julie Allemand would be possible choices, just to throw on the pile.
My guess is that the Sky see enough potential in Evans and Koné to protect them, and then probably Smith is the sixth protectee because her play this year at only 27 years of age might be enough to see her taken by the Amazons (she'd then be overpaid, but expansion teams usually have lots of cap space to spend anyway). Williams, given her somewhat chequered history off the court, might not be someone an expansion team would be keen to make a cornerstone. They have no idea what they'd get from Harrison, and she's expensive. Hebard has never really cracked the Sky rotation. Gardner, after a breakthrough year in 2022, is now 33 and coming off an injury.
So there are lots of options here for the expansion team, and it's one of the picks they might spend a while deciding who to take. I could also see a deal here, maybe for Mabrey if the Amazons wanted a fun gunner to carry their offense in the early years.
Washington Mystics
Ariel Atkins, Brittney Sykes and Shakira Austin are easy protected picks, but after that it's a little tricker for Washington. Elena Delle Donne is another player in that awkward spot where you wonder what she'd do if selected by a team she didn't want to play for. Instantly retire? Demand a trade? Without too many players they'd be scared to lose, I think Washington protect her and avoid any of those possible scenarios. Even with her injury issues, and as an unrestricted free agent who could walk away if they don't core her themselves, she's too valuable to risk.
Natasha Cloud is the Mystics' emotional leader, but she also turns 32 before next season and remains a career 38% shooter from the field. There's a chance the Amazons would take her as their UFA pick, especially as she'd be a great public face and leader for their new organisation, but I could see the Mystics risking that possibility. Unless they're going to core her, they're already at risk of her walking away as a free agent anyway. But who else to protect instead? Myisha Hines-Allen has one year and $180,200 left on her contract, and only showed brief bursts late in the season where she was worth anything like that amount. Queen Egbo is young and has shown some talent as a big, but will always be Austin's backup. Shatori Walker-Kimbrough and Li Meng are backup rotation guards. I think the final two spots probably go to Hines-Allen (hoping she's finally healthy again next year) and Walker-Kimbrough (reliable guard cover), but I could easily believe Egbo instead of either of them. The Amazons would then be left to choose between Egbo, Li Meng, or making Cloud or Tianna Hawkins their instantly cored UFA pick.
Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx wouldn't have a huge amount of decisions to make. They have six players under contract for next year, a host of UFAs where there'd be very little fear of any of them being selected, plus reserved rights to Nikolina Milić, and draft rights to French prospect Maïa Hirsch from last year's draft. They also have rights to veteran international players Cecilia Zandalasini and Anna Cruz, but it would be even less likely that they'd show up to play for an expansion team than for Minnesota, making them a fairly pointless pick.
So I think they definitely protect Napheesa Collier, Diamond Miller, Kayla McBride, Jessica Shepard and Dorka Juhász. The only question is whether they leave Tiffany Mitchell available in order to protect their rights to one of the foreign bigs. My guess is that they'd protect Mitchell, given Milić is already 29 and doesn't look like ever being more than a backup for them, and no one knows what Hirsch will be even if she ever shows up. But I could believe any of those three being the sixth name. As long as she was willing to show up and play in a new city, Milić could be a fun big for an expansion team who need bodies and aren't expecting to win much for a year or two.
Atlanta Dream
Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyenne Parker would all obviously be protected by the Dream. Aari McDonald presumably would be as well, even though they're still waiting for her to really step forward and grab her role on this squad. After that, it gets more difficult. Any of their remaining players could at least be of some use to an expansion team. Haley Jones and Laeticia Amihere have youth, size and potential on their side, even if their rookie seasons were rather unconvincing. Naz Hillmon already has a defined WNBA role as an undersized energy rebounder, while Iliana Rupert has youth and size as well. AD Durr would happily take lots of shots if given the minutes on an expansion team. Even Monique Billings and Nia Coffey could be outside possibilities as the Amazons' one UFA pick if they don't have better options elsewhere.
Having taken her at No. 6 in the most recent draft, I think they protect Jones while waiting to see if she develops more as a pro. The sixth spot could go to almost anyone mentioned above. My guess is Hillmon as the most proven as a useful WNBA player among those still under contract. The expansion team might well take Amihere in that case, hoping her raw skills can develop with the amount of minutes and opportunities she'd get on a brand new team.
Dallas Wings
Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally, Teaira McCowan and Natasha Howard would all be protected without question. Even if the Wings wanted to shake up their roster somewhat, each would have meaningful trade value so you don't allow them to be taken away for nothing. Then it becomes a question of which of their young pieces the Wings are most attached to. There would then be only two protected spots left, with Awak Kuier, Maddy Siegrist, Lou Lopez Sénéchal, Veronica Burton, Crystal Dangerfield, and the draft rights to Stephanie Soares all still on the table. This is another situation where I wouldn't be surprised if they approached the Amazons with some kind of deal, maybe offering them a pick to leave certain players alone like Indiana did when Atlanta were drafting back in 2008.
If they were to just fill their final two spots, my guess is they'd go with Kuier and Siegrist. They've invested time and effort into Kuier, and there's still so much potential there - even if a lot of it remains theoretical more than consistently visible on the court. Siegrist was this year's No. 3 overall pick and had a couple of nice moments. They still have no idea what Lopez Sénéchal is going to be at this level, Burton still hasn't shown she can shoot well enough to stay on the floor, and Dangerfield lost her spot in the playoffs. Soares could still theoretically re-enter the draft in 2024, which might be more of a risk if she was taken by an expansion team she has no relationship with, so they might be reluctant to take her anyway.
It would, therefore, be a nice dilemma for the expansion team, with several reasonable options. Lopez Sénéchal as a gunner (and an unknown at this level), Burton or Dangerfield as your floor general, a flier on Soares to fill the paint, or - if you can get hold of medical reports and your doctors clear her - Diamond DeShields might even be a reasonable choice as the UFA pick to instantly core. This is what you want to see around the league if you're the expansion team about to draft - rosters filled with players where you're at least going to get someone who can play for you, ideally someone with potential to develop and improve.
Connecticut Sun
If we were actually about to have an expansion draft, this would be one of the most fascinating situations in the league in regards to their protected list. Four of their five highest-paid players in 2023 are now unrestricted free agents. So how many protected spots do you 'waste' on UFAs in case the Amazons might use their sole UFA pick on either Brionna Jones, Tiffany Hayes or Rebecca Allen, rather than protecting the players who are actually under contract?
The Sun wouldn't have to protect DeWanna Bonner because, as discussed with Griner and Ogwumike above, she's reached the limit of years where she could be cored. But the other three are all of a quality where the new team would consider them for their UFA pick - even with Jones coming off a torn Achilles, Hayes being 34 years old and constantly banged up, and Allen a useful piece rather than a genuine max-level player. Obviously, Alyssa Thomas is first on the protected list, and then I think Jones is next. Even if they choose not to core her themselves - that's a separate debate - she's too good to leave open for an expansion team. They'd take her, and happily give her extra time to rehab that Achilles if necessary. With Hayes and Allen, I think Connecticut would be more willing to take the risk. Hayes is still good, but might well be finished by the time the new team were actually becoming good themselves. Allen is a very useful role player, but not someone you particularly want to be paying the supermax, even if you have acres of cap room. There's a decent chance that the Amazons would have better options for their UFA pick elsewhere.
If they were to leave both Hayes and Allen unprotected, that makes the final four spots fairly straightforward. I expect it would be Natisha Hiedeman, Tyasha Harris, DiJonai Carrington and Olivia Nelson-Ododa. If the Amazons wanted to take Leigha Brown or the reserved rights to Bernadett Határ, then the Sun can live with that.
New York Liberty
Fortunately for the Liberty, Jonquel Jones is another player who has reached the limit of years where a player can be cored, so could presumably be left unprotected without fear. That leaves Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Courtney Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney as the obvious first four protectees.
The last two slots aren't quite as clear-cut, but my guess is they would go with Kayla Thornton and Nyara Sabally. Thornton is an important and reasonably-priced role player, while Sabally is a young big with potential who's spent enough time in the U.S. to not have the same likelihood to miss seasons as many other non-American players. That would leave the rights (RFA, suspended, reserved or draft as applicable) to Jocelyn Willoughby, Han Xu, Marine Johannès, Raquel Carrera, Leonie Fiebich, Marine Fauthoux and Okako Adika available for the expansion team to choose between. Or Stefanie Dolson as their UFA pick, which might not be completely crazy either.
I think they'd probably take Han and try to feature her far more than Sandy Brondello did in New York, thereby hopefully making her more likely to stay in town rather than leave to play for China every other week. Johannès, Carrera and Fiebich are all talented, but Johannès's future WNBA participation could be hurt by Prioritization rules, and we're yet to see either of the others show up in the U.S. at all. Willoughby would be the boring choice, hoping that she would show more on a team with more minutes available.
Las Vegas Aces
The first five protected picks here are absurdly easy, with A'ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Alysha Clark going nowhere. Only the sixth spot offers any real questions, and ultimately that seems fairly straightforward as well. Candace Parker is yet another player who has already reached the limit of years played under a core contract, so could not be the Amazons' UFA pick. Riquna Williams is probably gone anyway, given her off-court issues. For all Kiah Stokes's value to this squad as a defender and rebounder, taking her with your sole UFA pick and paying her the supermax on an expansion team would seem wild. So the only real options left to protect are Kierstan Bell and Cayla George.
I'm still yet to be convinced by Bell as a WNBA player, but they have a couple of years invested in her and she occasionally looked like cracking Becky Hammon's rotation during the course of the season. I think they'd protect her, and if the Amazons want Cayla George's restricted rights then they can have them. Or if they want to pay Kiah Stokes $241,984 next year, I think everyone in Las Vegas would be happy for her.
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So there we are. Obviously, in a year's time these lists could be very different. The rules could also change, especially if they're trying to stock two expansion teams simultaneously rather than just one. We haven't seen a multi-team expansion in the WNBA since 2000 when the landscape of the league and its contracts were very different, so that might require a re-think of how some of this works. However, if the hypothetical scenario above was played out, an expansion team might come up with a roster something like:
Kadi Sissoko
Kia Nurse
Maya Caldwell
Shaneice Swain
Ruthy Hebard
Natasha Cloud (who might immediately ask for a trade, but would have value)
Nikolina Milić
Laeticia Amihere
Lou Lopez Sénéchal
Leigha Brown
Han Xu
Cayla George
That's not a good WNBA roster by any means, but it might at least be moderately entertaining. Expansion teams always hope that the goodwill of fans from just having a team lasts a couple of years, giving you some time to stop being dreadful. For the sake of the league and the new fans it could be gaining, let's hope it doesn't take the Amazons (or whatever they're called) and any other newly created teams too long to find their feet.
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Great stuff, as always.
The expansion team likely won't get a lottery pick either, so it's going to be a long, bad season at Chase. My sense is that fans will not make the long and complicated trek to Chase in big numbers until the team wins a lot of games, so Joe Lacob will have to settle for 20 dates at his arena for a while.
And a geographical note: Diana Taurasi played at Chino High School, about 400 miles from San Francisco. Phoenix is actually closer to L.A. than SF is.