WNBA Dissected 2023 Week 4: Teams start to separate, Phoenix fault lines and more
Another journey around the world of the WNBA
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Tiers are Falling
As you may have gathered from my years of resisting the easiest of sports article tropes, I am not a fan of 'power rankings'. Everyone plays everyone anyway - we have the results of the games and the actual standings to tell us where teams are in relation to one another. I'm also reluctant to use too many stats this early in the season, when one brief hot streak or a couple of lucky bounces can change implications dramatically because sample sizes are so small. With all of that said, after just 8-10 games played for each team, it's interesting how tiers already look to be developing.
On a visceral level - which teams have felt like they belong in the top group - we have a top three. Las Vegas, Connecticut and New York, not coincidentally also the top three in the standings, have all looked strong and capable of taking over games for meaningful stretches. The simplest of 'advanced' numbers - looking at current net rating, rather than wins and losses - puts the Aces comfortably into a tier of their own, before the Liberty and Sun follow a long way back. Las Vegas started off very strong but also benefitted from a relatively easy early schedule, which is one of the pitfalls of early numbers (and of paying too much attention to the standings early on).
Then it's a case of how many teams you want to include in the next group. LA's comfortable win over Dallas yesterday moved them into a solid lead for fourth on net rating - illustrating how much one good result can swing things this early in the year - but if we go back to how it feels, that middle tier is pretty broad. Anyone among the Sparks, Mystics, Wings, Fever, Sky and Dream looks entirely capable of beating each other on any given night, looks capable of challenging the top three in the right game, and should be favourites against the teams we'll talk about in a minute. What's interesting is how differently those teams would feel about being included in the same tier, even at this early stage. With a healthy Elena Delle Donne, Washington would've hoped - or maybe just expected - to be considered among the top group, at least on a par with the Sun. However, their offense just hasn't shown up yet, leaving them down with a crowd of middling teams that they'll hope to leave behind as the season wears on. For Dallas, Chicago and Atlanta, this is probably about where they'd have expected to be. Not also-rans, not title-contenders, but competitive. For Indiana, it's a sign of significant progress to be part of a middle tier, rather than getting steamrolled on a nightly basis. Although as I wrote last week, actually achieving the results of a middling team might not be the best idea in the world for the Fever.
Finally, both in visible performance and by the numbers, we have a pretty clear bottom three. Minnesota and Seattle being down there isn't much of a surprise to anyone, both thrown into a rebuild by the loss of franchise cornerstones. Some might've been expecting more from Phoenix - probably including the people at the Mercury themselves - but it's not all that surprising to see them down there as well. Father Time continues to wear at Diana Taurasi. Skylar Diggins-Smith played a huge part in keeping them afloat in recent years, and she's played just as many games for the Mercury this season as Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart have played for the Storm, or Sylvia Fowles has played for Minnesota. A returning Brittney Griner - even if her play was barely affected by nearly a year in a Russian prison and her body somehow held up through the rigours of a WNBA season - always looked like it might not be enough to prop up the Mercury, unless she got significant help from unexpected corners. That hasn't arrived yet. (Plenty more on Phoenix below, for those interested.)
We'll see movement between these groups as the season wears on, and potential separation into smaller factions - like I said, it's still really early - but it hasn't taken long to see some stratification developing. Now everyone has to try to make sure their movement is upwards rather than sinking further down.
Let 'em Play
This is a silly little thing, but I liked it so you get to listen to me go on about it.
Phoenix were up three and advanced the ball with a timeout with 28.9 seconds left on the game clock. Too many teams would foul here. Yes, you extend the game, but the likely result is falling behind by at least four and leaving yourselves chasing a two-possession deficit. Christie Sides went the other way. She knew as well as anyone else that's watched basketball in the last millennium that teams don't usually run the 24-second shot clock down to the final dregs. Exactly as Taurasi does here, the shot usually goes up several seconds too early. Even with a little bit of a scramble for the rebound that gave Indiana to chance to corral to ball and call timeout, then set up a shot to tie the game in the 5.5 seconds remaining. It was the right call and it worked, even if the three they got off on the final possession was ugly and missed. It still would've been the right call even if Taurasi made that off-balance leaner. Judge the process, not necessarily the results.
Mercury failing to rise
One of the wilder team stats of the early season is that Phoenix have shot a higher percentage from the field in every game they've played so far bar one - and that single exception was against Indiana in one of their two wins. Their effective field goal percentage puts them third in the league behind only the Aces and Liberty, and true shooting percentage is the same - they're third, with a big gap before you make it down to the teams below them. All of this despite Diana Taurasi shooting an ugly 35.5% from the field and 25.4% from three on high volume.
So where is it going wrong? There are some familiar issues. Their rebounding is dire, which has been a common thread through many recent Phoenix seasons, even the ones where they've won plenty of games. If you can't end opposition possessions, and you don't create second chances, then the advantages of shooting a high percentage get washed away. They've been playing smaller a lot, using Michaela Onyenwere and Sophie Cunningham at the forward spots to offer more offensive threat than they're ever going to get from Brianna Turner, but that hurts their rebounding and their defense. They're also turning the ball over repeatedly, with a current 20.1% turnover rate which would make them only the second team since 2004 to break the 20% mark. Some of that comes from trying to force the ball to Griner, which is obviously also part of the high field goal percentage - so to a certain extent you live with it. But it can't be consistently that high if you want to win games. They also don't force many takeaways - they're fighting with Indiana for worst in the league in opponent turnover rate - so again that high percentage scoring is being wasted. More of your shots going in doesn't matter much if you let the other team take a bunch more shots.
How much of this is fixable? It would be nice to offer Mercury fans hope, but it's hard to see where too much quick improvement is going to come from. Griner has never been a great rebounder considering her size and length, so it's hard to see that changing. Also, the acceptance that Turner's lack of offense hurts more than her positive traits help seems unlikely to reverse. They can cut out some of the sloppy, unnecessary turnovers, and the return of Shey Peddy offers another ballhandling option, but that's hope more than expectation. It might be considered heresy, but one option would be playing Taurasi less. Her shooting numbers might slide upwards a little, and the team still responds to her leadership (and defenses still worry about her and bend towards her), but fewer shots at those terrible percentages could help. Maybe rather than fixing what's wrong, you lean into the strengths and try to shoot even better to compensate for the negatives. That said, Griner and Taurasi have been relatively healthy so far, until Tuesday night when a hip injury took Griner out of the game. Expecting that to hold up through 40 games might be overly optimistic. At least they still own their 2024 first-round pick.
Lineup Minutiae
They've been in this space plenty already this season, but it's time to go back to the Dallas Wings. From a roster usage perspective, the interesting element of their rotations recently is that two hardship signings - Kalani Brown and Odyssey Sims - are both seeing heavy minutes, ahead of many of the players on the main roster. Some of this is down to the type of players they are. Brown gives them a direct replacement for Teaira McCowan, who was initially injured and then left to play for Turkey at EuroBasket Women. Sims gives them a primary ballhandler to replace Crystal Dangerfield. But when players like Ashley Joens, Jasmine Dickey and Awak Kuier are only receiving occasional spot minutes while hardship signings are core parts of the rotation for game after game, it rather jumps out at you.
The question becomes what happens when players return. Hardship players have to be released when the conditions for the hardship no longer exist, but we've seen plenty of situations over the years where teams have found ways to bring those players back if they've impressed enough as replacements. Brown has moved into the starting lineup in recent games and produced, but the Wings have also had success this year with smaller lineups featuring Natasha Howard at center and Satou Sabally at the 4. If McCowan is back to take the minutes when they're going big, is Brown surplus to requirements however impressive she is on the temporary deal?
None of Sims, Dangerfield or second-year point guard Veronica Burton has been perfect, but all have shown their strengths at different times. Dangerfield is the best shooter, Burton the best defender, and Sims brings experience and leadership, especially in the pick-and-roll. They probably only keep two of them long-term, but exactly which two could still be up in the air.
When McCowan returns, one of the replacements will have to go. Then it's a question of whether they're willing to sacrifice one of those bench players to bring Brown or Sims back on a regular contract. Joens looks expendable right now but they're presumably expecting future development from all these youngsters, or they wouldn't have retained them in the first place. How much do you sacrifice from a theoretical future to offer yourselves better options in games right now?
Clark's Corner
This is a classic Clark's Corner, so while I'm typing from Ljubljana you get a moment from someone I wish was here.
That's Karlie Samuelson spotting up in her usual position behind the 3-point arc, before illustrating how she's made herself into a useful player beyond just that skill. She responds off the shot, hunts the ball, takes the contact, and earns a couple of free throws. Many years ago, I was not a Karlie believer. I thought she was a 3-point gunner who would be at worst a liability in every other area of the game, or at best a passenger. Then you watch her play, and you witness the work rate, the hustle plays, the deflections, the surprisingly effective and versatile defense. Is she ever going to be a superstar at this level? No. Has she earned her place on a WNBA roster? Absolutely. Effort is a skill, and so are instincts. Any time you want to come back and play for Great Britain again Karlie, we'll have a spot waiting for you.
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Completely agree on playing Taurasi less. I think even last year she’s overstayed her welcome. She’s often a malign presence on the court when things aren’t going well, getting T’d up, cussing everyone out, pushing and swinging out, in addition the the well known arguing with teammates. I get the sense that she runs the team more than the coach, and that has led to conflict. The coach appears weak and the team is dominated by DT’s moods