WNBA Dissected 2023 Week 9: Second half outlook for every team
Now we've crossed the midpoint of the 2023 WNBA regular season, our writer picks out one thing he wants to see and one he doesn't from every team in the remaining games
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We've now crossed the midpoint of the 2023 WNBA regular season and escaped the non-basketball of the All-Star weekend, which means it's time to take stock. Below is one thing I want to see, and one thing I don't want to see from every team in the league over the remainder of the season. Bear in mind that these may not necessarily be the same as what the teams themselves would be hoping for or hoping to avoid. We're going to go in order of the standings, because occasionally I need to change it up from following the alphabet.
Las Vegas Aces
What I want to see: Chase every record. Purely from the perspective of trying to maximise their chances of winning back-to-back titles, this probably doesn't make much sense. Becky Hammon should be resting her stars more than she has in the first half of the season, nursing them through in an effort to have everyone at 100% for the playoffs, and maybe even developing a little more depth. But I'm a neutral. So screw that. Let's see a team that has numbers to back up a claim of being the best team this league has ever seen, even before the playoffs begin. Finish 37-3 to beat out the 1998 Houston Comets for the highest winning percentage ever (or at least 36-4 to match them at .900). Stay ahead of that same Comets team for the best ever net rating (Vegas are currently at 19.7 to Houston's 17.4). Finish No. 1 in both offensive and defensive rating this season. When history's on the table, pursue it.
What I don't want to see: Injuries. This is the case for everyone, obviously, but it looks like the primary element that could derail the Aces. They're not a particularly deep team, and Hammon has shown no faith in the last three players on an 11-player roster (plus Riquna Williams hasn't played all year). Candace Parker is already a little banged up. The rest of their core has generally been pretty healthy during their pro careers, but you never know when disaster might strike. A'ja Wilson has the longest active streak in the league of consecutive games played, but that also means that we don't know how they'd cope without her. Let's hope we don't have to find out.
New York Liberty
What I want to see: The real Jonquel Jones. Honestly, most of the anticipated 'superteam' has shown up as expected this season. Inevitably, there have been some growing pains. But Breanna Stewart looks like the best player on Earth. Courtney Vandersloot is leading the league in assists. Sabrina Ionescu is firing at will and hitting plenty, and everyone else has filled their role and had their moments (outside of Han Xu, who's barely been seen even when she's been in the country). Their perimeter defense has been porous and shaky on a regular basis, which remains a key flaw that's going to be difficult to fix when Vandersloot, Ionescu and Marine Johannès are your rotation guards. But Jones hasn't been the two-way superstar we saw at her peak in Connecticut. Her percentages have been fine, and she's part of the successful whole in New York, but they were hoping for more than that. She's cut a frustrated figure at times, and having her and Stewart behind those guards hasn't been able to make up for the defensive holes. However, Jones came into the year carrying an injury and playing limited minutes. Hopefully, she's still working her way back to peak condition, so there's more to come. That looks like their primary area for growth. Barring those injuries we talked about in the previous paragraph, that's growth that looks necessary for a chance of chasing down the Aces.
What I don't want to see: Too many more games where Breanna Stewart has to carry the offense. She can do it, we all know that - but this isn't Jewell Loyd in Seattle or Napheesa Collier in Minnesota. Stewart has plenty of help, and a team that's likely to blow away the all-time record for assist percentage. She shouldn't need to carry them. If she gets 30 within the flow of the offense, which is perfectly possible, fine. But don't turn into a "give it to Stewie, get out of the way" team. You're too good.
Connecticut Sun
What I want to see: With the self-imposed rule that I'm not allowed to wish for a new Achilles for Brionna Jones, I'd like to see increased fluidity from the Sun and Stephanie White. Not in their play, but in their choices. This is a team that genuinely has options in how it can play and how they line up. Alyssa Thomas has essentially been starting at center since Jones went down, but Olivia Nelson-Ododa is capable enough to play meaningful minutes as a true 5 to make them much bigger. They have the choice between Natisha Hiedeman and Tyasha Harris at point guard, or neither of them thanks to Thomas's talents as a ballhandler and distributor. They have a lot of smart, flexible players, which needs to be a strength. Test all those options, so they're all available for September and October.
What I don't want to see: Alyssa Thomas being worked to the bone. Thomas has a decent shot at the Most Valuable Player trophy this year if Vegas's stars split their votes and Stewart is considered to have too much help in New York. Even if she doesn't win MVP, she might well get Defensive Player of the Year as a consolation prize. But neither award should be the target for the Sun. As mentioned above, they do have plenty of talent and can put solid lineups on the floor even without Thomas or Jones. She's averaging 36.4 minutes per game, and that's too much for a player who carries such a heavy load when she's out there. Find her a little more rest, so that she has those reserves of energy for the postseason.
Atlanta Dream
What I want to see: The easy answer is more of Rhyne Howard playing like she has ever since Kevin Pelton and I agreed on the Her Hoop Stats podcast that she wasn't an All-Star this year. Howard has flipped a switch lately and that's been a big part of Atlanta's current seven-game winning streak (and also led to Howard being added to those All-Star rosters as an injury replacement). But I'll add that I'd still like to see Howard shoot slightly fewer threes. She's hitting at over 38% from outside so they're hardly bad shots, but she's fully capable of breaking teams down and creating opportunities at the rim, or kicking out to open shooters when defenses collapse on her, or just getting to the line. Sometimes it's a little too easy to settle for that three. And that wing tandem of Howard and Allisha Gray is big for a pair of perimeter scorers. A lot of teams don't really have the players to defend them both. So if teams try to cover you with someone who isn't big enough, punish them inside.
What I don't want to see: More of the “matchup decision” nonsense we were given on Tuesday night when Cheyenne Parker was benched for the game against Minnesota, eventually entering early in the second quarter and playing barely 13 minutes. Maybe Tanisha Wright felt she needed extra rest after the exertions of All-Star weekend. Maybe there's something else going on behind the scenes that they don't want to tell us about. That's fine. But when it makes very little sense, we're all going to query it and not appreciate being asked to buy what they're selling.
Dallas Wings
What I want to see: Okay, this time I am going for the easy answer - I want to see this version of the Wings show up in the playoffs. Simple as that. The team that went toe-to-toe with both the Aces and Liberty recently, showed absolutely zero fear of the supposed 'superteams', and has beaten them both. They're not the finished article, but between Satou Sabally staying healthy and Natasha Howard offering increased grit and threat in the frontcourt, and Latricia Trammell managing to coax a more cohesive defensive effort from the group, this squad is dangerous. They've proven they can beat anyone. They may not even be too bothered about their playoff seeding, considering those competitive wins over top teams have been accompanied by a loss to sorry Seattle and three losses to Los Angeles. If you're going to play to the level of your competition regardless, may as well face the best and give us all a show.
What I don't want to see: I think we're already seeing this given recent roster moves and Trammell's rotations all season, but I don't want to see too much deference to 'development'. Yes, this franchise has made a lot of draft picks in recent years, and several haven't worked out. Players like Maddy Siegrist and Awak Kuier can get into games against the right lineups and play the minutes they earn, but there's no need to lean too far towards playing the youth. This team is good enough right now to see what they can be with the current group. The youngsters who are good enough will keep coming through anyway.
Washington Mystics
What I want to see: More ball movement. Washington's team assist percentage is right in the middle of the pack, just above Las Vegas, but outside of Elena Delle Donne they don't have the isolation scorers to survive offensively like that. Or the offensive rebounding of teams like Dallas and Indiana to create second chance points. They have people who can shoot, and people who can get to the rim, but when "toss it to Elena" isn't available the ball has to move. Brittney Sykes is a perfectly capable secondary ballhandler, but she's not a natural passer and the ball tends to stop more when she's running the offense. The whole squad, inside and out of the paint, has to keep shifting the ball into space. Then their offense won't always have to rely on Delle Donne being healthy or Sykes having one of her hot scoring days.
What I don't want to see: 'More injuries' would again be the easy answer. Washington have lost key players, and it's hard to play through. Maybe what I really don't want to see is this shadow version of Myisha Hines-Allen that's been on the court this year. Since her breakout season in the bubble in 2020, Hines-Allen has been consistently banged up and struggling to recapture that form, but this year has been even worse than the last couple. She looks relatively mobile moving around on the floor, but the same burst isn't there and the production has been nonexistent. Tianna Hawkins has comfortably passed her in the rotation, and recent addition Queen Egbo isn't far behind. Unless the real Hines-Allen starts to show up sometime soon, hardship signee Cyesha Goree might be taking minutes from her as well. Hopefully that 2020 version of Hines-Allen is still in there somewhere, and all the injuries haven't wiped her away for good.
Minnesota Lynx
What I want to see: More of the youth. I fully understand Head Coach Cheryl Reeve wanting to win games. When it comes down to it, that's her job. But as President of Basketball Operations Cheryl Reeve would likely concede under the influence of truth serum, this team is going nowhere this year. Yes, Napheesa Collier is very, very good. But she doesn't have the help. While they're around, the Lynx should be finding out whether the likes of Emily Engstler and Kayana Traylor are good enough to be worth bringing back. They should be letting Diamond Miller make every mistake she needs to make in order to learn (something Reeve has basically been doing most of the year, to be fair). They should maybe be playing Collier a little less, to see how some of their younger players cope without having her to rely on all the time. This is a year for figuring out which of these players can still help you in a couple of years when you might be threatening to actually be good again.
What I don't want to see: We're going to get to this with Indiana in particular, but it applies to most of the remaining teams - for their sake, what I don't want to see is a finishing position above ninth in the standings. Is there a universe where the Lynx finish around seventh and pull a first-round upset? Sure. Are they winning two rounds in anything but the most extraordinary timeline? I would be gobsmacked. They'd be much better off with a lottery pick. That truth-serumed President of Basketball Operations would likely agree.
Chicago Sky
What I want to see: Run. There's not a huge spread across the league, but the Sky are one of the slowest-paced teams in the WNBA this year. That's despite having players like Kahleah Copper and Courtney Williams who thrive when they can get out and run, and gunners like Marina Mabrey who have no interest in running 23 seconds off the shot clock if there's a half-decent look available after five. They have bigs who can move and shoot as well, so it's time to step up the pace and just increase the overall tempo of their games. If nothing else, it'll provide more entertainment for the crowd, but it could also lead to a few wins.
What I don't want to see: This is the one team around this area of the standings where ninth would be a horrible place to finish. The Sky's 2024 first-round pick is going to Dallas as part of the Mabrey deal, so the last thing they want to see is ping pong balls rattling around that lottery machine with 'their' name attached to many of the combinations. Even an eighth-place finish and showing a little spirit while getting swept by the Aces would be distinctly preferable to that.
Los Angeles Sparks
What I want to see: Enough health to see where they might be going. The Sparks have a significant list of players hitting unrestricted free agency at the end of the year, but given their history with the organisation and California in general, it seems likely that Nneka Ogwumike and Jordin Canada may well return. Add them to players who are under contract through at least 2024 (Azurá Stevens, Dearica Hamby, Lexie Brown, Zia Cooke) and you have a realistic core of a decent team, albeit one they'd hope to add to. So a few weeks, maybe even a whole month, where that group is intact and on the floor would be interesting to see. Can Ogwumike, Stevens and Hamby all play together successfully, or do they need to be 4/5s who sub in and out? Is Canada/Brown their long-term starting backcourt, or do they need to look elsewhere? Different pieces of this squad have looked frisky on any given night, but for real value for the future they need to learn something about the core group as a whole.
What I don't want to see: Honestly, I can live without seeing anymore of the Stevens-at-the-3 experiment. She's a big who can move and, on the right day, shoot. Let her lean into that. See if Hamby can work at the 3 if you're going to try the triple-big lineup. If the rest of the guards get healthy I think you're going to see less and less of Jasmine Thomas as well, which makes sense for this squad. That deal was always more about the pick that came with her than Thomas herself.
Indiana Fever
What I want to see: More Aliyah Boston. That may sound ridiculous for a No. 1 overall pick who played her way into being a starter in the All-Star game and has been ridiculously efficient for a rookie, but Boston's usage percentage is 19.1%. For a star player, that's strikingly low (given five players are on the court for a team at any given time, 20% is the base average). Even if it means sacrificing a little of that vaunted efficiency, I want to see Boston demand the ball more, attack with purpose and look to score more than she has so far. It's even more imperative with her frontcourt partner NaLyssa Smith currently injured, removing Indiana's highest-usage player from the lineup. Some of it is down to the team and the coaching, of course. They have to look to get her the ball as much as possible, and in position to do damage. But it's also on her to actively take this team on her shoulders to a greater extent, even in her first season as a pro.
What I don't want to see: As I've made clear in previous articles and tweets, don't finish higher than ninth. Boston and Smith are both good already, and are going to be very, very good. Kelsey Mitchell is (finally) an all-star. But this team isn't done. They need at least one more major piece, and they have a history that suggests they're going to struggle to attract that player in free agency. What they have banked already is their 5-31 record from last season which, given the WNBA's two-year system for deciding lottery odds, means they have at least an eight-game advantage over any other competitors for lottery positioning - as long as they miss the playoffs. I'm not asking anyone to play or coach to lose. They've played an incredible amount of close games already this season and lost the vast majority, so they're getting the job done anyway so far. But if it gets close in the final week or two of the season and maybe Mitchell has the sniffles or Boston trips over her dog, maybe give them a game or two off to recover. That's all I'm saying.
Phoenix Mercury
What I want to see: Brittney Griner enjoying herself? As was repeated ad infinitum over All-Star weekend, it was great to see Griner back on the big stage and having the time of her life. Maybe that's the main thing to take away from the Mercury's season in 2023, regardless of all the rest. Because there hasn't been much else to celebrate. In fairness, they showed signs of life against Connecticut on Tuesday, but it's hard to see it turning into a full-season turnaround. This already feels like a team hoping for lottery luck, and maybe to make some noise in free agency once Skylar Diggins-Smith's contract is off their books.
What I don't want to see: Their rebounding. It hurts my eyes.
Seattle Storm
What I want to see: Just lean in to Loyd. Let her chase the scoring record, let her take as many shots as she likes, and let her entertain the hell out of us. In an ideal world, let her enjoy it so much that she signs a contract extension rather than entering free agency again at the end of the year. Beyond that, keep watching the youth. Give Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu every opportunity to learn the ropes as a WNBA post. See what Jordan Horston can do as a wing after all those minutes earlier in the season where you asked her to survive at the 4. Try to work out if Ivana Dojkić and/or Jade Melbourne are going to be part of the future at the point. This is one team where I don't think I have to worry about them making the playoffs.
What I don't want to see: Noelle Quinn get fired. When you've been mostly healthy and you're 4-16, it's usually going to cross a general manager's mind to make a coaching change. But we all knew this was going to be a difficult transitional year for the Storm with Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird both walking away. Assuming they'll be adding reinforcements in the offseason, both via the draft and free agency, I'd like to see what Quinn can do when given a bit more to work with. But I'm not going to be surprised if the Storm decide otherwise, especially if their former point guard fancies walking back through the door again.
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