WNBA Dissected: Fake Trade Special
With the WNBA season about to restart, we suggest some deals that could happen before the upcoming trade deadline
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As the WNBA season prepares to restart, another important date is fast approaching - the trade deadline. This year it's been set at 8 p.m. ET on August 21, less than a week after the regular season starts up again (and the exact tip-off time of a Minnesota-Chicago game, so if anyone's glaringly missing from the lineups, become immediately suspicious).
We don't tend to see too many deadline deals in the WNBA, primarily due to the small number of teams offering a very limited pool to trade with. Also, the fact that two-thirds of the league makes the playoffs means that, at this point, virtually everyone thinks they're still in with a chance. You need buyers and sellers for good deadline drama, teams that are looking for a final piece to make a push and teams that are already looking to the future. There has, however, been the occasional big move in this league. Long-time fans may remember the Detroit Shock acquiring Taj McWilliams-Franklin in 2008 after Cheryl Ford got hurt, then going on to win a championship that year with McWilliams-Franklin as a key piece. So meaningful deadline moves can happen and, regardless of likely reality, there's nothing to stop us having some hypothetical fun.
So let's take a look at what some teams could do before next Saturday night. The closest thing to a blockbuster doesn’t come until the final deal, so stick around for the big finish.
Proposal #1: Seattle Storm trade Kennedy Burke and New York's 2022 second-round pick to the Atlanta Dream for Monique Billings
The Storm need a backup post. With Candice Dupree having been an expensive bust in Seattle they've essentially been left with three bigs, and if any of Breanna Stewart, Mercedes Russell or Ezi Magbegor were to get hurt (or even just in foul trouble) they'd have problems. The difficulty is in finding someone to trade for. With Dupree's buyout on the books and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan's full salary counting on the cap while she's pregnant, the Storm don't have a lot of cap space left. When you make trades in the WNBA, the full year's salary transfers to the new team (not just the part for the remainder of the season), so unless the Storm are willing to make Epiphanny Prince's $115,000 salary part of the deal, they have to bring in someone relatively cheap. The player also has to be better or more proven than someone like Cierra Burdick (currently on a 7-day deal in Seattle) or Emma Cannon (on a 7-day of her own in Indiana). Otherwise what's the point?
Monique Billings is a little more proven than those options, having flashed some skills as an energetic rebounder over 3+ seasons in Atlanta. She's been sidelined a little in with the Dream this year after they added Cheyenne Parker and Tianna Hawkins, coupled with Crystal Bradford emerging out of nowhere. Parker is now out due to her own pregnancy but the Dream recently added Dupree as another interior option. As a result, Billings feels expendable for the Dream. She's also out of contract at the end of this season, so Seattle wouldn't be tying themselves into any future salary.
Kennedy Burke hasn't really worked out in Seattle after signing this offseason and finding herself behind Katie Lou Samuelson and Stephanie Talbot for minutes on the wing. Burke may need to transition to play as a 4 if she wants to stick in the WNBA long-term, but Seattle probably needs someone who understands that role already. Atlanta could take a look at her for the rest of this year and see if she's worth keeping around.
The pick, which could end up pretty high in the second round, would be to help talk Atlanta into the deal. Whoever it is probably wouldn't make the Storm roster next year anyway.
Proposal #2: Connecticut Sun trade Stephanie Jones and their 2022 second-round pick to the Indiana Fever for the right to swap third-round picks
Okay, you have to go with me for this one. Connecticut needs a backup post that Curt Miller actually trusts. Earlier this season, when Jonquel Jones was overseas, they signed Emma Cannon on a hardship contract and she immediately leapfrogged Beatrice Mompremier and Stephanie Jones in the rotation to become the Sun’s first post off the bench. Unfortunately, when Jonquel returned, by rule they had to release Cannon and weren't in a position to re-sign her.
They're now more than $13,000 over the salary cap, which makes trades rather difficult. What they'd be doing here is sending Stephanie Jones into Indiana's remaining cap space (where the Fever would likely waive her), and handing over their second-round pick as the price. Connecticut would then have $45,595 in cap space, more than enough to sign... Emma Cannon, currently on a 7-day deal with Indiana that she could allow to expire before leaving for Connecticut. The swap of third-rounders is in there purely because by rule Indiana have to send something the other way in the deal. It’s virtually nothing. In summary, this is really a salary dump for the price of a second-round pick, opening up roster and cap space to sign a free agent upgrade.
This one could be a little awkward in the real world, considering Stephanie Jones is the sister of Connecticut's starting center Brionna Jones, but with a little conversation could hopefully be smoothed over. There'd be nothing to stop the Sun from inviting Stephanie back for training camp next year to fight for a roster spot again.
Proposal #3 (sort of): Las Vegas Aces trade for Nobody
I tried, but the Aces don't have much in the way of holes, so it's hard to find a worthwhile move. They added an extra backup post before the break when they signed Kiah Stokes, which gives them some insurance inside. Some extra backup on the wing could be useful - there's not much behind Jackie Young, which is part of why she's played so many minutes this season. But it's hard to find anyone who'd be available that would be a better option than more minutes with both Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum on the floor together, and/or more time with the big lineup where Dearica Hamby plays the 3.
They're also tight to the cap, so any move would probably be for someone cheap whose salary is close to that of Destiny Slocum's - the most likely option to be sent the other way. JiSu Park might draw some better offers, but even then there aren't a lot of attractive wing options that teams would be willing to let go. Maybe they'd be interested in Burke, and the Storm deal above could be turned into a three-teamer, but you don't usually see title-contenders making deals with each other at the deadline. He may have once been referred to as Trader Bill, but I don't see Laimbeer making another move this week.
As mentioned in a previous article, their $820 of remaining cap space is enough to sign a player for one day, though. Their most likely route to a new player might be signing a free agent on the final day of the regular season with that smidgen of space and having them available for the playoffs.
Proposal #4: Minnesota Lynx trade Cecilia Zandalasini somewhere, maybe?
We've addressed the three teams who looked like genuine title contenders in the first half of the season, so now we're on to the teams that might think they have a shot at the championship if everything breaks right in the second half. The Lynx are another team already over the salary cap, and also out of roster spots. In fact, it took a great deal of maneuvering to get Layshia Clarendon and Rachel Banham back on the roster under standard contracts. However, there have been reports in the Italian press of Zandalasini returning to the WNBA this season, and the Lynx currently hold her exclusive rights.
The problem is that this is tricky from whatever angle you approach it. Minnesota doesn't have anyone obvious to trade away to create space to sign Zandalasini. Banham would seem the most likely perimeter player to give up, but if they had any designs on doing that then they wouldn't have re-signed her a week before the break. Jessica Shepard is the only post who they might move on from, but given the top-heavy nature of their roster Shepard's cheap contract next year has value to them. Bridget Carleton would draw interest from other teams, and Zandalasini plays a similar position, but Carleton has been a distinctly useful part of Minnesota's rotation.
The other option would be to trade Zandalasini herself to somewhere she could play, but what's her value? She’s an international player with undoubted talent, who wants to play in the US and is only 25, but hasn't actually played in the WNBA since 2018. The Lynx would probably want a first-round pick, maybe even one projected to be at least in the middle of the round, to give up on her talent. Other teams seem unlikely to be willing to pay that much for someone who hasn't set foot in the US in three years, and who may have overseas responsibilities in future seasons as well.
So this one is up in the air, and Zandalasini may just have to wait until next year. Or in the "Wait and Ceci" category, if you will.
The Untradables: Dallas, New York, Phoenix
Just a quick note for some of the teams that don't appear in this piece. Dallas easily could make a deal (or two) before the deadline. They have the second-most cap space in the league, a whole bunch of young players and an extra first-rounder in 2022 (which given it's coming from LA, looks like it could be pretty high). The problem is that they've been trying to make this deal for years. What they should want to do is consolidate multiple pieces into a star to play alongside the likes of Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally, but they haven't been able to find anyone who wants to be on the other side of that deal. The other problem is that those multiple pieces haven't exactly been setting the world alight in Dallas. Which means the more likely Wings deal would be giving up on a Chelsea Dungee or Bella Alarie for whatever they can get before they just end up moving on and losing them for nothing. The problem is that the return probably wouldn't be great.
Like Dallas, New York's roster is crowded. They also have a lot of players they seem to like, so it appears unlikely that they'd move on from someone like DiDi Richards or Leaonna Odom just to shore up a spot like backup point guard or reserve post. Not impossible, but unlikely. Someone like Lindsay Allen from Indiana would give them an extra primary ball handler and could well be available, but if they felt the need to make a deal like that it could've been done a while ago. At this point they seem likely to stand pat.
Phoenix just doesn't have the pieces. What are you going to do to upgrade when Kia Nurse and Megan Walker haven't increased their value since the Mercury themselves overpaid for them in the offseason, and everyone else is either crucial to the Mercury or has no real trade value? They could maybe get a late second-rounder from someone to take a look at Sophie Cunningham or Alanna Smith, but that hardly seems worth it. They'll be hoping that Diana Taurasi gets healthy and maybe Bria Hartley returns and that their improvement comes from there.
Proposal #5: Washington Mystics trade Myisha Hines-Allen to the Atlanta Dream for Chennedy Carter
Finally, my favorite hypothetical deal of the lot. Carter was suspended by the Dream for 'conduct detrimental to the team' and nothing has changed in regards to that over the break, despite a change of head coach in Atlanta. As you'd expect, when a talented player appears to have fallen out with both her teammates and the hierarchy at her franchise, trade possibilities begin to be discussed.
It feels like Hines-Allen might be the best player anyone would be willing to give up for Carter. A suspension and stories of disruptive behavior inevitably lowers a player's trade value and makes it more difficult to construct a deal. Hines-Allen is only 25 and showed what she's capable of when placed in a more significant role in the bubble last season. She produced as a combo-forward who could score both inside and out, and would also improve Atlanta's poor rebounding efforts. The reason Washington might be willing to give her up is that after this season they may well not be able to keep her. She'll be a restricted free agent, but with Elena Delle Donne, Natasha Cloud, Ariel Atkins and Alysha Clark already under expensive contracts, and the possibility of adding Tina Charles and Emma Meesseman to that group, they'd struggle to retain Hines-Allen as well. Even if Meesseman decides not to play next year, it might be difficult to match what Hines-Allen could find on offer elsewhere.
So for Washington they'd be giving up a good player, but one they may well lose soon anyway (and who'd primarily become a backup if the rest of the roster is healthy). They'd be betting on Mike Thibault and a veteran roster to manage Carter and whatever personality issues she may bring with her, thereby getting the most out of her talent with less of the drama. Carter's certainly shown the talent in Atlanta, and with over two years left on her rookie scale deal she also has the relatively cheap contract that Washington needs alongside all those expensive deals. Atlanta should be able to keep Hines-Allen at whatever her market value proves to be, while also trying to re-sign their various unrestricted free agents at the end of the year - some of whom may be significantly more likely to re-sign if Carter is elsewhere.
Which side might have to throw in anything extra would be up to negotiation. Given Carter's rookie scale contract and star potential the Dream might feel that they need more, but Washington's response to that could easily be "good luck finding a better offer". Both sides have their own 2022 first-rounder if they really wanted to push through a deal, but a genuine straight swap of the players doesn't feel too far off the mark. How realistic any of this is largely depends on exactly how broken the relationships are in Atlanta, which is always difficult to know from the outside.
We'll find out whether any of these possibilities come to fruition by 8 p.m. ET next Saturday night.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
Great article. I'm in favor of the Hines-Allen/Carter trade. Im a Mystics fan and LOVEEEE Hines-Allen, but Chennedy is a star and I agree our vets can keep her focused.
We can't afford H.A after this szn and we gonna need a more dynamic playmaking lead guard than Cloud gives us. 🤞🏾🤞🏾the deal gets done.