WNBA Dissected: Format improvements, World Cup clashes, chess match moves, and more from 2022 Playoffs Week 1

With the postseason well underway, we continue to look at moments and topics of note from around the WNBA, and look forward to the semifinals

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Well these are the proper games, aren't they? You remember why I keep saying the WNBA should expand the playoffs instead of the regular season now, right? And why, despite some fans not particularly enjoying the turn of phrase, I occasionally refer to the regular season of US sports leagues as an incredibly long preseason. These are the games that matter. These are the games with feeling. Even when they turn into extended blowouts - and we've had several of those in the 2022 first round - they have a little spice to them, because they mean something. So what else have we learned from the WNBA playoffs so far?

Format Matters

While there's been the inevitable griping from certain corners, there's almost universal agreement that this year's playoff format is an improvement. One-game, winner-takes-all games are exciting, but they’re just not fair on good teams that have finished as high as third in the standings over the full regular season. Chicago finished second, so would've avoided the single-game playoffs under the previous format, but the Sky against the New York Liberty could easily have been the 3-6 series rather than the 2-7. These are the levels of teams and performance discrepancies we were looking at in those single-game playoffs. They illustrated nicely why we play best-of-three (or, ideally, best-of-even-more) to decide the winner. Basketball has enough randomness that a lesser team can win one game. Five guys from my local park aren't going to beat the Warriors if you gave them 1,000 tries, but any given WNBA team can beat any other on the right night. New York pulled off the upset, Chicago regrouped, and showed which was actually the better team. Game 3 in particular wasn't actually as one-sided as the final scoreline suggested, but the Sky won those last two games by a combined 56 points. If the opener had been winner-takes-all, then half their squad would've already been in Europe by Wednesday night, not earning their place in the semifinals.

Personally, I would happily shift to a combination of the last two playoff formats. If you're in the fifth-to-eighth area of the standings, I wouldn't mind seeing you involved in a one-game playoff round. It was only ever forcing teams that finished high in the standings into those games that seemed unfair to me. We could have No. 5 vs No. 8 and No. 6 vs No. 7 to decide who goes through to best-of-threes against the third and fourth finishers, while the top two seeds get their byes back from the previous format. That would also mean only two best-of-three series, so less overall league expense for travel, and fewer arguments against the 1-1-1 format that everyone would ideally like to see in best-of-threes.

Photo Credit: Chris Poss

The 2-1 format didn't lead to too many complaints, but only because everyone was happy that they were at least playing a series. If Chicago had lost on Tuesday night, you can bet the unfairness of playing a deciding game on the lower seed's floor would've come back up. At time of writing we don't know the result of the Dallas-Connecticut Game 3, but someone will ask the question there as well if the Wings close it out. It feels like a win for Dallas (or New York) would've been far more justified than in a one-game playoff - if you beat a team twice out of three, you've earned it. That would be much less of a fluke. But we've all grown up with other leagues where part of earning home-court advantage is also earning the right to host the decider, should it prove necessary. This doesn't feel entirely right, even if the lower seed has already had to force a split on the road to earn that decider.

The lack of a home game for the lower seed could be an even bigger issue for some of the ownership groups. Washington were the fifth-best team in the league, comfortably made the playoffs, and ultimately didn't host a single postseason game. That's something else that would be rectified by my hybrid format above, because No. 5 and No. 6 would host in the first round. It doesn't feel fair on the fans, more than anything. They were there all season, they know their team made the playoffs, but they only got to experience the games on TV. Given we don't use conferences any more, even travel to the other city for the games is far less likely to be a realistic option.

So we've improved matters, but not quite perfected things just yet. I expect they'll probably stick with this for another year, given no one seems to completely hate it, although there'll be a push from some for 1-1-1 rather than 2-1 in the first round. If expansion comes in 2024, then they'll have the perfect excuse to re-examine the situation again. Yet more playoff teams? A return to an East/West split? A realization that we should be maximising playoff games over regular season? That last one's unlikely, because everyone always has 11 months to forget how much fun these games are. But we can dream.

A Potential World (Cup) of Awkwardness

In case you were unaware, the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup starts on September 22. In the US it actually starts on September 21, because somewhat inconveniently for the WNBA, this year's World Cup is being held in Sydney, Australia (14 hours ahead of US Eastern time). The final possible date for the WNBA Finals is September 20. Anyone who has to play in a culminating Game 5 on that Tuesday night is going to struggle to even be in Sydney for tip-off on the Thursday, never mind be physically ready to play.

This is already creating issues. Li Yueru was listed as 'Not With Team' for a little while in Chicago before they eventually admitted that she'd left to join the Chinese national team to prepare for the World Cup and make sure her visa was ready to get her to Australia (anyone else with visa issues would obviously struggle even more to arrive in time if they're involved in the WNBA Finals). USA Basketball announced a huge 28-player squad for a training camp from September 6-12, which covers the scheduled dates for the end of the WNBA semifinals and opening game of the Finals. So obviously several players won't attend, or will arrive late. We'll see how USA Basketball feels about selecting players who didn't make it to camp, and who might even be late to Australia for the competition itself. They might make exceptions for stars like Breanna Stewart or A'ja Wilson, but players lower down the pecking order will probably find themselves left out if they aren't in camp.

Of course, the USA would be favourites to win the World Cup even if they selected a squad from the players who've already been eliminated from the WNBA playoffs. The bigger issues are for the non-American players. Li left Chicago partly because she was barely getting off the bench anyway, so you can understand why her priorities would shift elsewhere. But other players are absolutely vital for both their WNBA and national teams. Emma Meesseman and Julie Allemand are crucial elements in the Belgium team; Gabby Williams and Iliana Rupert are both important pieces for France; Ezi Magbegor and Steph Talbot are key elements for Australia; and Jonquel Jones is the superstar expected to carry Bosnia and Herzegovina's challenge. Hopefully, all these players are invested enough in their WNBA team's success that they'd stick around for as long as necessary, but you can understand why they might be frustrated by the potential clash - or even consider leaving. It's hard work making it to a World Cup, and they only come around every four years. American audiences have always seemed to view it well below the importance of the Olympic Games, but for many in other nations this competition is on a similar level.

The WNBA didn't have to make the timing so close, of course. We didn't have to play 36 games this season, or they could've packed the schedule a little more tightly. We could've had the four-team international tournament I've been suggesting for many years as a replacement for the All-Star Game, which would've allowed both Team USA and three other major nations to get together for a training camp and competitive warm-up games during the WNBA season. Li leaving Chicago passed without anyone paying much attention given her lack of importance to the Sky, but what if Meesseman or Jones left their WNBA team during the Finals to make sure they were in Australia in time for their World Cup opener? And could you blame them that much for prioritising representing their country in a major tournament over playing for their club team? Apparently the Australians have said they'll stay, even if it means missing the opening games of their home World Cup. The WNBA can only hope that other international players feel the same way, should the choice need to be made.

A Series Business

Apologies for going back to more format discussion, or at least a tangent from it, but there's another reason to love the best-of-threes over the one-game playoffs: the chess match. Yes, there's inherent excitement when you know it's win-or-go-home from the opening night, but the ebb and flow of teams and coaches responding to the previous game is part of what's fascinating about the playoffs. Respond and react, and if something went badly last time, you have a chance to fix it.

In the Sky-Liberty series, Chicago trapped on ball screens from the very start of Game 1, especially on Sabrina Ionescu. It didn't go particularly well, as New York moved the ball away from the traps and exploited the holes left behind. Most famously, there was this one, which ultimately turned the game:

WNBA @WNBA

MARINE JOHANNES YOU'RE KIDDING 🤯 @MarineJ5 📺 ESPN2

Azurá Stevens tries to join Allie Quigley in pressuring Marine Johannès, which leaves space behind them that Candace Parker doesn't cover because she's worried about Stef Dolson on the perimeter. Johannès makes an otherworldly pass to get the ball there, but Natasha Howard was essentially open in the same way the screener is always going to be left momentarily open against that kind of defense. Chicago didn't change their approach very much throughout Game 1 (possibly because up until the 13-0 New York streak that pass ignited, the Sky were still winning).

After a couple of days to think about it, the first Chicago change was glaring from the opening tip-off of Game 2. Kahleah Copper was the initial primary defender on Ionescu, rather than Courtney Vandersloot who'd been guarding her for much of Game 1. The Sky made other alterations and played with much better energy, but putting a longer and more athletic defender on Ionescu made those traps more effective, and rolled into everything else that went right for Chicago over the rest of the series.

Over in Connecticut, neither game was particularly competitive, but in opposite directions. Dallas got blown out in Game 1, and with their season on the line head coach Vickie Johnson had the guts to make a major move. Teaira McCowan was a huge part of their success over the second half of the regular season but Johnson benched her, moving the more mobile Isabelle Harrison into the starting lineup instead. Harrison hadn't been hugely effective in Game 1 - and only played 12 minutes - but removing McCowan from the floor made Dallas more fluid and quicker across the board. It also possibly surprised Connecticut a little, who were probably expecting continued efforts to feed McCowan in the paint. The change allowed Johnson to match McCowan's minutes with when Brionna Jones was on the floor, letting the two of them battle it out deep in the paint without asking McCowan to deal with Jonquel Jones or Alyssa Thomas too often. Dallas won in a blowout.

At time of writing, I don't know what's going to happen in Game 3 of the Sun-Wings series. But I know it's going to be interesting. Does Curt Miller make greater efforts to force McCowan to guard someone other than Brionna Jones? Does Johnson have another trick up her sleeve to surprise the Sun? Could the return of Arike Ogunbowale upset the balance, in either direction, or could listing her as 'probable' be a complete smokescreen from the Wings? All of this stuff is fascinating. And look, we've ended up with the excitement of a winner-takes-all game even without the best-of-one format - just with lots of intriguing basketball along the way.

Aces-Storm Preview and Clark's Corner Combo

Las Vegas against Seattle is set up to be a hell of a series. We have the 1-2 for MVP going head-to-head, two young head coaches who are still proving themselves, and a host of talented players on either side trying to step up. Never mind that one of the legends of the game could be closing out her career if the Storm can't come out on top.

A few things to look out for. Firstly, how aggressively are the teams going to search out and exploit potential weak spots in their opponent's lineup? Seattle often try to hide Sue Bird a little on defense - hence sliding her over to guard Alysha Clark against Washington, rather than asking her to survive against Natasha Cloud or Ariel Atkins - but the perimeter of Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young doesn't offer much in the way of hiding spots. So where does she go, and do the Aces force-feed the ball to whoever she's trying to cover? The one Aces player who poses a very limited offensive threat is Kiah Stokes, who spends most offensive possessions setting screens and otherwise trying to stay out of the way. It wouldn't be completely unprecedented for Seattle to put Bird on her occasionally, asking Breanna Stewart to guard one of the perimeter trio, but it could lead to some awkward situations and scrambling on the glass.

Inside, Tina Charles may well start as the primary defender on A'ja Wilson, allowing Stewart to maraud more due to the minimal danger of helping off Stokes. Noelle Quinn will have to balance how much to use Charles and when to go with Ezi Magbegor instead, as she has ever since Charles arrived in Seattle. There were stretches of the Washington series where the Storm looked much more effective with the speed and rolling of Magbegor rather than the individual offense of Charles. On the opposite side, can Seattle wear down Wilson? While she always carries a heavy load for Seattle, defending Stokes (or Iliana Rupert) will give Stewart some possessions where she can rest a little. Wilson will virtually always be guarding someone who carries a threat (and if Dearica Hamby's still out, Wilson will also get very little rest). Five games of that could grind her down at least a little.

Both of these teams have used some zone and some junk defenses over the course of the season, and we'll definitely see some of that during this series. Las Vegas use their standard 2-3 zone fairly frequently, but Hammon has other options in her bag of tricks as well. Seattle can go to something basic like that too, or we've seen a 1-2-2 where Stewart uses her length to disrupt the offense from that solo spot at the head. Both teams like to shake things up coming out of timeouts, to hopefully show something the offense isn't expecting - but obviously both also know that about the other. So the chess match continues.

Depth seems like it's on Seattle's side. Noelle Quinn has actually been willing to use her reserves during the season, while Hammon has barely gone seven-deep all year, and we still don't know if Hamby will play any part in this series after her injury. However, Quinn shortened her rotation significantly against Washington, and Gabby Williams was forced out of Sunday's game due to concussion. The Storm have more players they might at least be willing to throw on the floor for a few minutes to see if they have something for that particular night, but the core rotation may well play nearly as many minutes as Las Vegas's.

Should Williams be missing, Seattle will likely turn to Steph Talbot, which is where this becomes your regular Clark's Corner segment. As I've mentioned many times on Twitter, Talbot is exactly the kind of role player you want. Doesn't complain if she doesn't play much for a couple of games, but if you suddenly need her to step in and play 25 minutes, she's ready and does the job. A solid defender, a better shooter than Williams, and with a knack for making important hustle plays, Talbot may not have the dynamism of Williams but she'd be a thoroughly competent fill-in. Look at the crucial plays she made in the fourth quarter of Game 2 against Washington to help close out that series after Williams was hurt:

Three vital offensive rebounds to keep possessions alive and take the heart out of the Mystics. Ideally, she'll be Williams's backup and give Quinn the option of whichever is performing better on a given night (similar to the Charles/Magbegor decision). But Talbot can step up and play bigger minutes if she needs to. Which players step up and which coach wins the battle of wits is going to be fascinating. I can't wait.

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