WNBA Dissected: Moves that could swing the semifinals, and more from 2022 Playoffs Week 2
With the season reaching its closing stages, we take a look at the finely poised semifinal series and the gambles coaches could make to gain an edge
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I know I started last week's column with essentially the same sentiment, but isn't this great? Every game we're watching has passion on the floor and in the stands, with meaningful stakes that everyone involved cares about. The best players in the world battling for one of the most prestigious trophies. Can you really blame me for repeatedly suggesting that the WNBA leans more towards extra playoff games rather than expanding the regular season? This is fun. In the spirit of fun, we're going a little off-book today with risky-but-gutsy moves the coaches could make that just might turn the current semifinal playoff series. Some are admittedly more serious than others, and some are definitely unlikely given existing evidence, but you can't make an omelette without breaking some eggs. And some of these teams might need to chuck some eggs around in order to reach the tasty omelette of the WNBA Finals.
Connecticut - bench Courtney Williams for DiJonai Carrington
This one's probably not likely. After her playoff exploits in previous years for Connecticut, and her return to the Sun this year as the supposed perimeter scorer they needed to complement their powerful interior, Williams is the cemented starter. She played in 34 regular season games this year and started them all. After pushing her three-point attempts above three per game last year in Atlanta, she's back under two per game this year and Curt Miller doesn't seem to mind. She also barely ever shoots a free throw (36 in total this season), and apparently that's okay too.
These are things we've come to accept as part of the Courtney Williams package. The endless barrage of long twos that go in at a just-about-acceptable rate are just what you're going to get from her offensively, along with the athleticism that still excites everyone from time to time and the passing skills that we see all too infrequently. The problem is that the ball hasn't been dropping in the playoffs. She's still firing away but is now 14-for-48 in the postseason (29%), and every time another one of those long twos goes up you're wondering how the possession might've gone if Jonquel Jones or Alyssa Thomas had been allowed to touch the ball.
Carrington isn't perfect either. She shot 31% from beyond the arc this season, so she wouldn't stretch the floor much more than Williams, and her usage rate of 20.5% this year is barely below Williams's 21.2%. But Carrington has a tendency to make things happen. She creates chaos. Williams has become a solid defender, using her quickness and athleticism to be where she needs to be, but Carrington is an active defender. The kind that's a constant annoyance, and has her hands in passing lanes at all times. Offensively she attacks more than Williams, not in terms of putting up shots, but driving into the paint, forcing contact and complications.
They could put Carrington on Courtney Vandersloot, giving her greater length to deal with and simply making it more of a pain to get the ball up the floor and initiate the offense. The other potential backcourt change for Connecticut - Odyssey Sims for Natisha Hiedeman - would also present a more physical challenge for Vandersloot, but without the length. And Hiedeman's shooting remains a valuable asset for Connecticut.
Chicago - Trust themselves
I tried to come up with something more complicated for Chicago, I swear. But honestly, if they play like they did in Game 2 and Connecticut don't come up with something extraordinary, the Sky might finish this off in four without having to come home for a decider. The offense worked better in Game 2 because they had patience, and exploited the gaps. Connecticut were aggressive defensively in Game 1, with some ballscreen traps that created early turnovers and led to transition momentum. I'd actually like to see more of that in the rest of the series, as long as the Sun go to it selectively. But in Game 2 Chicago moved the ball. This is a smart, veteran squad with multiple gifted passers. If the defender is denying the ball, go backdoor and someone will find you. If you're about to be trapped, find your outlet and let your four teammates beat the remaining three defenders. This is pretty basic stuff, and it's why Chicago went from losing the points in the paint battle 36-24 in Game 1 to a near-tie at 44-42 in Game 2. They're not posting up much; they're cutting into space and slashing to the rim.
The Sky are probably going to get beaten on the glass. Connecticut are bigger, more physical, and by rebound rate the second-best rebounding team in league history (behind only last year's Sun squad). But Chicago are doing well enough. Between Candace Parker, Emma Meesseman, Azurá Stevens and team help, they're surviving. I don't think it's necessary to contort themselves to try to minimise the gap on the glass. If Jonquel Jones or Alyssa Thomas gets an occasional putback, live with it and move on. So that's more of a non-change suggestion, if I'm honest. Basically, don't overreact to losing on the glass. Play well enough in other areas and, as Game 2 illustrated, they'll be fine.
In fact, that's a pretty general requirement - keep their composure. Connecticut can be a physical, bullying team, and we've seen some wild variations in how tight these playoff games have been called by the officials. James Wade can get very animated and upset on the sidelines if things aren't going Chicago's way, and sometimes his players follow that lead. Passion is good, but they can win this on talent. They need to avoid being drawn into the complaining and histrionics that can take their minds away from simply executing on the floor.
Las Vegas - bench Kiah Stokes
The reasoning behind this one has been glaringly obvious to anyone watching these wildly entertaining Aces-Storm games: Seattle don't guard Stokes. Like, virtually at all. The defensive three-seconds rule means whichever post is nominally on Stokes can't just stand in the middle of the paint, but they're only paying vague attention to where Stokes is when other Aces players have the ball. It's all about being in help position to rotate onto anyone else who gets by their defender or has room to shoot. If the ball ends up in Stokes's hands, unless she's literally under the rim, the Storm still won't react much. If she wants to shoot, they're happy for her to do that as often as she likes. If someone happens to be nearby they might contest it, but they aren't too bothered if she's as open as she would be in an empty gym. Her taking that shot is still a win for the defense.
We saw a certain level of reaction to this from Becky Hammon in Game 2. Las Vegas broke out the small lineup which was barely seen at all in Game 1, where perimeter players Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, Riquna Williams and Jackie Young are all on the court together. Those four were on-court simultaneously for nearly half of Game 2. Obviously, against a team with two of Breanna Stewart, Tina Charles and Ezi Magbegor on the court at virtually all times, this comes with risks. They could've tried some zone defense, which we've seen plenty of from Las Vegas over the course of the season, but apparently Hammon thinks that's a bad idea. We've seen very little zone from the Aces in this series, presumably because they think Seattle's ball movement and perimeter shooting would work too well against it. Instead, they essentially trusted Jackie Young to guard Stewart, along with help when they could get it there in time. Stewart posted up several times in the first half, and drew two immediate fouls on Young, but that concerted effort to feed Stewart inside faded as the game went on. She still piled up points, finishing 12-for-23 for 32 points, but she’s capable of doing that to anyone. For most of the second half, it didn't feel like Las Vegas were having to contort themselves too much to survive having four guards on the court. They even finished the game ahead on the glass 38-34, including eight from the 5-foot-7 Williams.
The other alternative for Hammon is going deeper down her bench than she seems willing to go. Iliana Rupert is the other center option, someone who can actually shoot from outside that the Storm might pay at least a little attention to. Hammon tried her very briefly in Game 2, and after one miss and one illegal screen quickly pulled her back out. As with the rest of her bench, she doesn't really seem to trust Rupert, and appears to feel that the drop-off defensively between her and Stokes isn't worth the potential offensive upgrade. The regular season numbers actually back her up - beyond the core group, Stokes has comfortably the best on/off stats of anyone on the roster - but those are obviously boosted by a big chunk of Stokes's minutes coming with the stars. Also, playoff series are different. It's much easier for opponents to absorb the game plan and know how to treat each individual player when they're playing the same team several times in a row. It's not quite the same as running into Stokes and the Aces on a random Tuesday night in June when you've played three other teams in the previous week.
Of course, this all gets much easier for Hammon and the Aces if Dearica Hamby returns from her injury and can play a meaningful part in the rest of the series. They said recovery from her right knee bone contusion would take 2-4 weeks, and it will be nearly four by the time Game 3 tips off. If her body's ready to play her regular minutes I'd be sorely tempted to remove Stokes from the equation entirely. The combination of Hamby and A'ja Wilson inside could play most of the minutes, with the small lineup filling out the rest. Stokes (or Rupert) might get a few if Wilson needs a quick breather.
Defensively, Stokes is good. She makes things more comfortable for the Aces because they have help inside beyond asking Wilson to do absolutely everything, and gives Vegas another true big to rebound. But it's not like Stokes is doing some kind of peak Sylvia Fowles impression back there. There's every chance that Tina Charles could brick just as many long twos and contested jump hooks with someone else on her. The Aces showed they could rebound without Stokes in Game 2. Even if Hamby isn't ready or is limited, I'd be scaling Stokes back even further. The positives don't outweigh the negatives anymore.
Seattle - Get weirder
There were basic options here. Feed Jewell Loyd early to involve her in the offense and avoid her having to step up out of nowhere when they need scoring late. Stop letting Tina Charles take quite so many shots, especially when it takes the ball out of the hands of dangerous shooters and keeps Magbegor off the floor (a player who could help Seattle's defense if she was ever given enough time to find her rhythm). Even something about Gabby Williams, whose return might inject extra energy into the Storm (although she's less crucial than Hamby because Seattle actually have viable backups their coach is willing to use). But no. I want to see Seattle shake things up a little.
The Storm are very good. They execute well, and their primary chance in this series was always that Las Vegas's defense wouldn't be good enough to contain them even if the Aces were lighting up the scoreboard at the other end. But when you're a smart team you can try something a little outside the box without necessarily throwing yourselves off. Put Stewart on Chelsea Gray for a few possessions, either via man-to-man or the box-and-1 zone we've seen the Storm use occasionally this season, just to upset Gray's rhythm with size and length. Gray's barely missed in recent weeks - she's 13-for-20 from three in the playoffs, 32-for-48 overall from the field - so they have to do more to disrupt her. Especially if Gabby Williams is back they could trap more, trusting their rotation behind to help and recover where necessary (something they were good at in Game 1, and which is exponentially easier if Stokes remains on the floor).
They put Sue Bird on Stokes to open Game 2 (something I mentioned they might do occasionally in my preview) and both Rebecca Lobo and I jumped all over it. However, it lasted two possessions before they flipped back to the regular matchups, where Bird's been chasing after Kelsey Plum as best she can. So it was a gimmick to mess with the Aces, but at least they tried it. We need more stuff like that from Seattle to mess with Las Vegas. We're not going to see another game like the series opener where the Aces almost forget that A'ja Wilson exists.
Offensively, please attack the mismatches. They should've been ready for Las Vegas's small lineup - Kevin Pelton and I certainly envisioned the distinct possibility - and the way Stewart immediately posted up Young on multiple possessions suggested they had a plan ready. But the plan seemed to fade. Yes, Stewart can shoot over Young whenever she wants, and the ball will frequently go in. But it's often a pretty difficult shot, even for Stewart. It's also a shot she can get basically whenever she wants, at any point in the shot clock. You have about 20 seconds to find something better. So keep punishing that lineup with Stewart inside. Either you get layups, Young picks up more fouls, or Vegas have to send help and you rotate the ball out to open shooters. These were the two best three-point shooting teams in the league by percentage, but only Seattle were top of the list in holding their opponents to a low figure. Teams shot 36% from three against Vegas, the third-worst figure in the league. Seattle have a lot of players who can hit that open look. Attack the mismatch, move the ball, and you'll find them.
On a similar note, ask Stewart to go up through Young or towards the rim if she's going to take the shot herself. We've already established that the Aces are desperately thin. They have maybe six players that Hammon ever wants to see on the floor. So foul trouble would be fantastic for Seattle. Two free throws after another foul on Young is way more useful than the clean look Stewart would get on a 10-foot fadeaway when she turns around away from her defender.
What a series, though. If both teams just want to carry on doing the exact same stuff and offering this level of entertainment, I think we'd all be fine with that. More please.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.