WNBA Dissected Special: Let's Trade Skylar Diggins-Smith Everywhere, Part One
Last week, we explained why trades are very difficult in the WNBA. But difficulty just makes something worth doing, right?
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Last week I wrote about how difficult it is to make trades in the WNBA right now, with tomorrow's deadline sitting there just waiting to drift past while we all wave it on by. I stand by everything I said - with the lack of cap space league-wide and the WNBA's restrictive rules, there are so few options for WNBA general managers that trades become exponentially less likely. NBA GMs can go "so how about a 2027 first, top-20 protected, converting to two second-rounders in 2029, plus the best of your three picks in 2028, and $2 million?" WNBA GMs can go "well, we have next year's second-rounder left and that kid we signed a month ago."
However, I also decided that I wasn't trying hard enough. So we go the other way. Even having been reliably informed that no WNBA player has ever been traded in the same week that they put up 30+ points, I'm taking this year's hot topic of deadline discussion - Skylar Diggins-Smith - and trading her everywhere. Then we’re going for my holy grail of hypothetical WNBA trading, the mythical 12-team deal. But more on that in Part Two.
I'll discuss each suggestion individually, but some general elements to remember. If you think I'm not giving up enough for Diggins-Smith, bear in mind that:
She's about to turn 32, which means for the vast majority of athletes you're tipping into the downslope of the career trajectory.
She only has one more year on her contract after this season.
She cannot be cored anymore, so will be an unrestricted free agent after that unless you talk her into an extension beforehand.
Phoenix are the ones reportedly calling around trying to move her, and value goes down once you become a 'motivated seller'.
If you think I'm giving up too much for Diggins-Smith in a given deal, then bear in mind:
She's been one of the two or three best guards in the league this year, and will be All-WNBA again.
She can play either guard spot, so fits in a variety of situations.
She has continued to improve in recent years, especially defensively, so her career may not be tailing off just yet.
You get this year and next to both try to win a title and convince her to stick around for future seasons.
On to the scenarios, in alphabetical order as is now customary.
Atlanta Dream
As I've said many times, I think Atlanta were set up to use this as a recovery year. New coach, new GM - time to change the atmosphere and the environment, then kick on next season with additional talent. Outside of their rookie scale deals and one remaining year of Cheyenne Parker, everyone is out of contract at the end of this season, leaving them lots of room to attack free agency hard. Of course, the season has ultimately gone better than that approach would anticipate. As I said last week, I'm still not convinced making the playoffs would actually be a positive, but they are definitely in the race. Diggins-Smith could be seen as getting a jump-start on that free agency charge, just a little early via a slightly different route.
We run into a small technical issue here with our very first team - both Atlanta and Phoenix are over the salary cap. As you can imagine for someone who regularly deals with annoying little WNBA numbers and rules, I want every deal in this article to be theoretically legal, and that now becomes hard. Typically, both teams have to finish a trade under the cap for it to be legal. When both are over to begin with, and we're past the midseason guarantee date for contracts, that becomes something of an impossibility. However, now we get to Phoenix's unique situation (which I'm going to use as infrequently as possible in this article, I promise). They were given salary cap and roster relief this year due to the Brittney Griner situation. As I understand it, that meant they were given an extra roster spot at anything up to the veteran minimum and could go over the cap to pay that player. Originally, Kristine Anigwe was designated as filling the spot, and since she was waived it's been Reshanda Gray. But exactly how Phoenix can shift the designation and the resulting numbers has never been particularly clear. So allow me a little leeway on this one.
Phoenix would ask for Rhyne Howard first, and be laughed off the phone. Once they called back, I think both sides would agree that Cheyenne Parker wouldn't make much sense for either team. The picks get interesting. Atlanta own two 2023 first-rounders, their own and one that will likely be Washington's once the Mystics exercise their swap rights on LA's pick. Given the limited number of years Diana Taurasi has left, Phoenix presumably want immediate help from a deal - but they have to have some kind of eye on the future at this point. Washington's pick won't be great because they're a dead-cert for the playoffs. Atlanta's should be a little better, and there's always a chance that they struggle to integrate Diggins-Smith and lose more than anticipated post-trade. If they somehow missed the playoffs, the pick would likely have the second-best lottery odds for the No. 1 pick.
The other Dream piece that might be interesting to Phoenix is Aari McDonald, who made her name at the University of Arizona and has had a pretty nice sophomore WNBA season. But do Atlanta still cough up their own pick if the Mercury want McDonald as well? I think they settle on the other pick instead.
So it's Erica Wheeler - who's traded again to make the money work, but would also help Phoenix this year - Aari McDonald, and the LA Sparks 2023 first-rounder that likely becomes Washington's pick when they exercise their swap rights, all for Diggins-Smith. Phoenix would then release Reshanda Gray and designate someone like Megan Gustafson as the Griner-replacement player. Atlanta would be under the cap, and Phoenix would be under the cap as long as Gustafson then didn't count. If that's not legal, there may be no possible two-team trade between these franchises right now.
Offer: Erica Wheeler, Aari McDonald, 2023 first-rounder (likely Washington's) for Diggins-Smith
Chicago Sky
This is close to impossible in a two-team trade that makes any sense whatsoever. To begin with, we have the same salary issues just discussed above with Atlanta. Also, Chicago are rolling. Why would the Sky contort themselves to add Sky(lar) when they're already flying high? But beyond that, Chicago don't have many big salaries that they'd be remotely willing to move, which makes it very hard to fit the numbers together.
Azurá Stevens would essentially have to be involved. The Sky have no one else with a significant salary who makes any sense at all. Others are all key starters, or too old to make any sense to Phoenix. Even Stevens would be a gamble for the Mercury because her deal's expiring, so unless they get her to extend she'd be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. But even if you add Ruthy Hebard to Stevens that's $213,211 total, still below Diggins-Smith's $227,900 (which doesn't work because Chicago is over the cap).
My next option was to make-believe that we're living in a world where Chicago would split up the Vanderquigs in what is probably Allie Quigley's final season. Her $135,000 goes into the deal instead of Hebard, and Chicago give the Mercury back their 2023 first-rounder because a month of Stevens and Quigley really isn't enough. They then have to do that same thing with shifting the Griner designation that maybe made the Atlanta deal legal. The problem is that even this cloud-cuckoo land deal is illegal because Phoenix currently have the limit of six protected contract (both Tina Charles’s waived deal and Brianna Turner’s yet-to-kick-in extension count). They’d be sending one out but bringing two back in Stevens and Quigley, so no dice.
So Stevens gets to be joined by Hebard and Dana Evans instead, and Chicago probably keep that pick. This one really isn’t happening.
(Never happening) Offer: Azurá Stevens, Ruthy Hebard, Dana Evans for Diggins-Smith
Connecticut Sun
Okay, finally we're on to teams with at least a tiny bit of cap space, so I can make deals that I'm confident are genuinely legal. Even if you think one team or the other would be insane to agree to them.
The Sun actually make a little sense as a Diggins-Smith destination. They're post heavy, their starting point guard got injured during the season, and they've cooled off so much in recent weeks that you could understand why they might be willing to deal. Brionna Jones is the name that's been thrown around most frequently because most people are aware by now that Connecticut is going to struggle to retain her after this season, without making a big move elsewhere to remove somebody. However, she's going to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. If she's the centerpiece and you're Phoenix, you better be ready to core her at the end of the year and pay her a lot of money.
Jones and Nia Clouden works, or even Jones and Natisha Hiedeman, where they'd just turn the point guard spot over to Diggins-Smith. Even sending Courtney Williams back to where her WNBA career began in Phoenix would work. If I'm Phoenix, I think I want Hiedeman (although again we’re hypothetically splitting up a couple, in this case Hiedeman and Jasmine Thomas). She hasn't exactly excelled since taking over as the starter in Connecticut but she's far more proven than Clouden, eight years younger than Shey Peddy, and they'd have her restricted rights in the offseason.
Connecticut would then end up with three players filling out their roster on 7-day deals and would eventually have to go over the cap with hardships to stay at 11 players. However, the league allowed Minnesota to do that recently so I don't think they could justifiably say the move was illegal.
Offer: Brionna Jones and Natisha Hiedeman for Diggins-Smith
Dallas Wings
Dallas has a little scrap of cap space, but they're lacking in big salaries to match with Diggins-Smith and help the maths. Two of their four biggest earners this season are Moriah Jefferson and Astou Ndour-Fall, players who are no longer on their roster. No, you're not allowed to trade previously waived players to make the numbers work.
Doesn't Marina Mabrey already feel like she could be a Phoenix Mercury player? Alongside Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham, both her attitude and her gunning would fit right in. Isabelle Harrison has also been grumbling about playing time lately, so you throw her in and you're at $231,141 in total salary. That's a little too high, so Jasmine Dickey and Megan Gustafson end up in the deal as well to fix the math.
No pick for Phoenix in this one, but Harrison's a useful player whom they might be able to convince to stick around after her contract expires. Mabrey is one of the better young guards that might be available in a deal and would only be a restricted free agent at the end of the season, so the Mercury would have control of her rights.
Dallas also owns Chicago's 2023 first-rounder, which given it'll be a late pick they might be willing to include as well to get this done. The Wings would get a veteran presence who could settle them on the perimeter and maybe help this team do the last bit of growing up which they still seem to need.
Offer: Marina Mabrey, Isabelle Harrison, Jasmine Dickey (and maybe Chicago's 2023 first-rounder) for Diggins-Smith and Megan Gustafson
Indiana Fever
This might not seem to make a lot of sense. The Fever are bad, young and rebuilding, so why do you trade for a 32-year old all-star? However, Diggins-Smith has links to Indiana. She was born and grew up in South Bend, then went to Notre Dame. And there have been a whole lot of empty seats in the variety of buildings the Fever have called home this season. A local legend to lead them through the rebuild might not be a bad idea.
The seemingly easy switch is star-guard for star-guard with Kelsey Mitchell going the other way. Mitchell isn't the same level of distributor or defender that Diggins-Smith has become, but she's on a similar level as a scorer and could easily have been an all-star this season. The problem for Phoenix is that Indiana don't need Diggins-Smith - this isn't the final piece for a title push - so I don't think you'd get much more than Mitchell in the deal.
The other Indiana option would be trying to get some of their youth, maybe building a deal around someone like Emily Engstler. But given that I really don't think you're prying NaLyssa Smith away from the Fever, it's hard to see enough potential to really intrigue Phoenix.
If they just want a player to try to replace Diggins-Smith straight-up, Mitchell might be the best possibility. Emma Cannon, Khayla Pointer and Sam Thomas are in the deal to balance out the numbers.
Offer: Kelsey Mitchell, Emma Cannon, Khayla Pointer for Diggins-Smith and Sam Thomas
Las Vegas Aces
We're back in the same realm as Chicago here. Given the way their results have dropped off lately, I could imagine the Aces considering a deal, but it's hard to see who they'd be willing to give up (with a significant enough salary to make the deal work) that Phoenix would have interest in. Riquna Williams is a good player, but you're not building a Diggins-Smith trade around her.
But if you're Vegas, are you giving up Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum or Jackie Young for Diggins-Smith? As good as Diggins-Smith is, I don't make any of those deals. They can't afford to give up Dearica Hamby for another guard when they're already so thin in the paint behind Hamby and A'ja Wilson. A two-team trade is a virtual non-starter here, so we're going to skirt pretty quickly through Las Vegas (as is generally a good policy for your health).
Non-Offer: Kelsey Plum, Iliana Rupert, Sydney Colson for Diggins-Smith and Sam Thomas
Come back tomorrow for every remaining team, and the mythical 12-team deal.
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