WNBA Dissected: Numbers becoming noteworthy, a half-empty Cup, tiny rotations, and more from 2022 Week 5
From intriguing stats to the need for rest, closing a chapter in LA to shutting a door in Minnesota, we take another look at everything around the WNBA this week
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Medium Sample-Sized Theatre
It feels like we've barely gotten started, but today is Day 35 of a 101-day WNBA regular season, which means we're already over a third of the way through. That means that while still acknowledging that small sample sizes are having an effect, it's time to start paying attention to some of the statistics from this season. In alphabetical order, we're going to take a look at some of the interesting numbers that have cropped up so far for each team. Half this week, half next week. All with the caveat that the season is still young. Well, 35 seems young to me, anyway…
Atlanta
To start off on an incredibly basic level, the shocking statistic in Atlanta is that they're 7-5 and have looked like a decent team. Virtually everyone had this squad projected to be back in the lottery and counting their ping-pong balls; instead, first-year head coach Tanisha Wright has them above .500 and playing some solid, hard-nosed basketball.
Dig a little deeper and you see a dichotomy of a basketball team. Their offensive and defensive ratings are almost identical, which in this case is great defensively and a disaster at the other end. Statistically speaking they're comfortably the best defensive team in the league, and equally far clear as the worst offensive team. The good news from that is it looks like Wright can coach a defense. Next year when they add more talent, offense should come more easily.
Chicago
The Sky have to be pretty happy with where they are, compiling a 7-4 record despite players filtering back in, leading to disrupted lineups in the early weeks of the season. That juggling means they only have one five-player lineup that's played more than 28 minutes together this season. The good news is that their current starting five of Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, Kahleah Copper, Emma Meesseman and Candace Parker has a net rating of 11.4 in 94 minutes. That's a figure that would be challenging Connecticut and Las Vegas for the league lead if it was for a full team (and they were at 16.2 before last night’s game in Washington, just as an indicator of how quickly these numbers can change).
There are also some interesting numbers in Chicago if we switch to three-player lineups. I wrote a couple of weeks ago about hoping the Sky's big lineup with Parker, Meesseman and Azurá Stevens hadn't been dumped for good due to Copper's arrival - and groups with those three together have a net rating of 21.9. It's only in 58 minutes, but that's a number that continues to suggest the big lineup shouldn't just be thrown to the wayside.
Connecticut
Alongside Las Vegas, Connecticut have been one of the two standout teams so far this year. The numbers back that up, with the Sun and Aces right next to each other in net rating and well clear of the pack.
An unusual statistical pairing that the Sun have put together is a strong defense (albeit 4th in defensive rating maybe isn't as high as you might expect) and an exceptional offensive rebounding rate. Modern basketball coaching often eschews offensive rebounding in favour of getting players back quickly to set up on defense, but Connecticut's 33.7% would be the highest mark any team has set in the last decade. Being able to stop your opponent and add lots of second-chance opportunities seems like a good recipe for winning.
Dallas
In net rating, Dallas sit at an almost identical number to Atlanta, although the teams arrive at their near-zero in different ways. The Wings are much closer to the middle of the pack at both ends of the floor, rather than the Dream's extreme numbers. However, there's recent promise for Dallas in the lineup data. Satou Sabally hasn't set the world on fire individually since arriving, but their recent starting five with Sabally and Kayla Thornton inside and the regular perimeter of Marina Mabrey, Arike Ogunbowale and Allisha Gray has a net rating of 12.6. Only in 33 minutes together so far, but maybe they've found a lineup that Vickie Johnson might stick with for a while.
Indiana
The Fever's numbers aren't great, but when you're giving meaningful minutes to at least four rookies and leaning into your rebuild, they're not supposed to be. It's progress that they're tenth in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating, rather than falling off the end of either scale. Also, after multiple brutal years, it’s a significant step that they’re actually fun to watch.
The numbers are particularly complimentary to perhaps the biggest surprise of their season, Queen Egbo. She's the only player on their roster with a positive net rating when on-court (0.4), and they collapse without her (-23.0). That may say as much about the performances of her backups as Egbo herself, but any kind of success story with a shock pick at No. 10 in the draft is good news.
Los Angeles
The Sparks have been a bizarre case this year. Not just choosing this week to make a coaching switch, but in their complete change of personality from last season. In 2021 they were the worst offensive team in the league, propped up by a surprisingly competitive defense. In 2022 - admittedly after making several roster changes - they've risen to third in the league in offensive rating but fallen like a stone to dead last defensively. Players like Jordin Canada and Lexie Brown, who arrived with strong defensive reputations, should've helped them on that end. The on/off-court numbers do suggest they get much worse defensively when Brown sits, but generally speaking they've not been able to stop anyone.
As with Egbo in Indiana, only one Spark has a positive net rating when on-court, and that's Chiney Ogwumike. She's significantly above her teammates at 4.1, with most of the gains coming on the defensive end. They are 10 points better defensively per 100 possessions with her on the court than they are when she sits. As with all these numbers, some of that is noise - there's no one player who drops the same amount as Chiney goes up, to make an easy direct comparison - but Fred Williams has a job on his hands to figure out groupings that work. Derek Fisher was still trying when everyone 'mutually decided' it was time for someone else to try.
Fun stats for the rest of the league's teams to come next week.
Closing the Door
Among all the great passes and outstanding shooting, this little gem was my favourite play of the week.
New York are trying to run an 'elevator doors' set for Rebecca Allen, cutting back up the lane to dart between Natasha Howard and Stefanie Dolson before they close the gap and leave her open for three. However, either Minnesota had this scouted and knew exactly what was coming, or Bridget Carleton made a really smart play on her own. She just blocks the door! It blows up the whole play, simply standing in the gap between Howard and Dolson, forcing Allen to take the stairs and go all the way around the outside of Howard. The Liberty turned the ball over on the inbounds, and the game was over.
So simple, but so clever.
It's Still Not A Cup
Did you know that we're over halfway through the Commissioner's Cup? No? That's fine, neither did anyone else. The league does keep trying to remind us that Commissioner's Cup games are being played, via their social media posts and making sure questions are asked about it in every interview, while fans and journalists alike thoroughly ignore it due to the nonsensical system.
Given the structure is the same as last year, the problems remain the same. You can't just designate a load of regular season games to also count for something else and expect people to pay any attention. That's not a cup. You have tournaments in America - you know what these things are. March Madness is exciting because it's one-and-done, there's pressure and peril in every game, and the potential for upsets where the best team doesn't necessarily win. That's why people pay attention and actually care.
Instead we're deciding the Commissioner's Cup finalists essentially via a league, just a mini-league made up of games they'd be playing anyway. Why not dump a couple of regular season games and play this as an actual knockout competition? They could even have used it as a curtain-raiser to the season, in which case it would both draw attention to the start of the league year, and encourage players to arrive on time due to the prize money on offer (the proverbial carrot instead of the stick they're using with the upcoming WNBA Prioritization rules).
The whole competition continues to need a re-think.
Keeping Things Tight
While Las Vegas and Connecticut are top of both the regular standings and any 'power rankings' you can find, they also have a slightly concerning element in common - very tight rotations. Since Jasmine Thomas's injury, and increasingly in their recent road trip, Connecticut have leaned on their veteran core. The rotation has come down to their starters plus Brionna Jones, with an occasional appearance from DiJonai Carrington. Anything beyond those seven has been rare and brief.
In Las Vegas, playing without Riquna Williams virtually all year, they've also been down to seven in the rotation, with Kiah Stokes and Theresa Plaisance the only ones spelling the starters. When Jackie Young turned her ankle recently, that core group came down to six, and even Becky Hammon was forced to go a little deeper and see if Sydney Colson or even rookie Kierstan Bell were acceptable backups.
Players generally want to play, and coaches want to win games, so the best players being out there for a lot of minutes isn't a surprise. But these aren't the games that matter, and sometimes coaches need to protect players from themselves. This season in particular - when they've reformatted the playoffs to remove the valuable byes of recent years - regular season games are even less important. We all know that Connecticut and Las Vegas are going to make the playoffs; the rest is all jockeying for position and maybe an extra game at home. It's going to be far more important to be as healthy and whole as possible in August and September than to eke out that extra win or two in June.
There's also significant value to developing your bench and finding out who can play in the event of foul trouble or injuries at a crucial time. Maybe you work out whether Bell and Aisha Sheppard are even worth keeping around in Vegas. Maybe Nia Clouden or Yvonne Anderson get the crucial WNBA experience they need to be ready to contribute when needed for Connecticut. Maybe the likes of Bonner, Thomas, Jones, Plum and Wilson just get to keep a little extra tread on their tires for when it really counts.
Even if you lose a random game you shouldn't have in June, no one's going to give a damn if you're winning in September.
Los Angeles and Lineup Minutiae
Now that Derek Fisher is gone, maybe there's not much point analysing his lineups, but his final games in charge of the Sparks were interesting. Jordin Canada got her starting spot back on Sunday against Phoenix, even though LA has beaten both Minnesota and Dallas with Chennedy Carter starting in her absence. Liz Cambage started as normal in the Phoenix game but only played 13 minutes, including being left on the bench for the final eight minutes when the Mercury made their winning run.
There was plenty of drama in Los Angeles during Fisher's time in charge, including both front office upheaval and heavy roster turnover. The additions of Cambage and Carter in the offseason were both risky moves that were only ever going to add to that drama. Ultimately, Fish is now gone fishing, and Fred Williams is left to pick up the pieces. It'll be interesting to see what changes are made. With their 2023 first-rounder already traded away in the Carter deal there's no advantage in losing, so the franchise must've felt this year was more likely to be salvaged after a change in head coach. We'll see if they were right.
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