WNBA Dissected: Charles makes a move, Aces lock up another piece, all-star snubs, and more from 2022 Week 8
From players changing teams to players sticking around, questionable all-star picks to inconsistent officiating, we take another look around the world of the WNBA this week
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Charles in Charge
With all due respect to the likes of Crystal Dangerfield and Asia (AD) Durr, we had the first big-name player to switch teams during the 2022 season this week, when Tina Charles navigated her way out of Phoenix and landed in Seattle. Opinions have ranged wildly on this switch, from anger to disappointment, excitement to fear, so it's worth taking a closer look.
From the very start, Phoenix's 'superteam' didn't go as planned due to Brittney Griner's ongoing wrongful detainment in Russia. Then, according to ESPN's reporting, Charles apparently expected to become a featured part of the offense without Griner around. Wanting to be more featured than the 14.8 shots per game she was getting seems a little ridiculous. That's seventh in the WNBA, and second on the Mercury behind Skylar Diggins-Smith. Maybe she wanted more plays to be designed for her, or more touches inside, but it's not like she was lighting it up or dominating in the paint. Minnesota work hard to feed Sylvia Fowles because she's shooting 65.4% from the field, Los Angeles are talking about needing to find Nneka Ogwumike more shots because she's at 57.8% - Charles's 36.4% from three-point range was useful, but the 44.1% overall from the field wasn't getting anyone excited. It also wasn’t demanding that they take the ball away from Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi or Diamond DeShields to get it to Charles.
Also, teams that have put Charles in a featured role over the last five years have gone a combined 35-83 (31-78 in games where Charles played). She can pile up raw numbers, but it's become clear that if you want to win there better be alternative options. So while Vanessa Nygaard may not have gotten everything right in her first season as a head coach, there's very little evidence that she should've been giving in to what Charles wanted. Whether you condemn Charles for asking out or argue that the team in Phoenix didn't end up being what she signed up for is up to you. But if the reports of her whining for more shots are accurate then that's pretty unprofessional. If you'd played better and deserved them then you'd have received them.
None of which means much to Seattle. Apparently, they were one of Charles's final two options in the offseason, and she picked Phoenix because she wasn't happy about how she was told she'd be used in Seattle. Hopefully there have been discussions since then and Charles has moderated her stance. Because surely the Storm wouldn't have agreed to be her landing spot if Charles's demands were still the same. It hasn't been a perfect season for Seattle so far but they're firmly in the playoff mix and one of the five teams that look like realistic championship contenders. They don't need to give in to Charles to give themselves hope. It's Charles who was running out of options.
If she's coming in with realistic expectations, Charles can help Seattle. Due to Mercedes Russell's atypical headache syndrome they're thin in the post behind Breanna Stewart and Ezi Magbegor, so there are minutes available for Charles as, essentially, the deluxe version of Jantel Lavender. Charles can be the first post off the bench, give their second unit some extra scoring punch, and play a useful role. Noelle Quinn also hasn't been afraid to finish games with different lineups from the five that start, so when Charles is rolling she'll have a chance to stay in. The issues will come if she's expecting anything else. There's no way she should be starting unless someone gets hurt, and while the Storm may try out big lineups with Stewart at the 3, they shouldn't be contorting themselves to fit Charles in (and Stewart as a perimeter player is something we've only seen very rarely in Seattle).
As long as there have been further discussions about her role, this is a reasonable gamble for Seattle, especially at the pro rated veteran minimum. I've had disagreements with some of the decisions made by the Storm front office in the past - the doomed Candice Dupree experiment last season, for example - but I don't think they're dumb. Charles has likely been told what to expect, and in her hunt for a ring is now willing to accept it. As for Phoenix, they're 2-0 since she left and look happy going small. Maybe $108,000 for Tina Charles wasn't quite the home run that most people thought it was when she signed.
Stat of the Week
Well, kind of a stat...
I admit that I stretched the truth a tiny bit. Dallas are paying Jefferson $180,200 this season after waiving the final year of her contract without agreeing any kind of buyout. The Lynx currently have her on a deal for the pro rated veteran minimum at $67,141. Some might argue that 2.7 times as much is a fair way off 3. Also, due to the WNBA's right of set-off rules, Dallas's liability is likely to be reduced a little at the end of the season. You're not allowed to earn more than $10,000 over the max salary, and Jefferson's combined total is too high.
However, you have to admit that a triple-double against the team that couldn't find any minutes for you so cast you to the wayside, but is still paying you 180k for the year, is pretty damn sweet. Temeka Johnson's out-of-nowhere night back in 2014 - the only game in her entire career with double-digit rebounds, in a season where she was Sue Bird's backup playing 17 minutes a night - remains the most improbable of the WNBA's 15 triple-doubles. But achieving it against the team that's still paying your bills (and then some)? That's special.
Another Ace in the Hand
As of yesterday, the Las Vegas Aces have another member of their core signed up for future years, thanks to Dearica Hamby agreeing to a multi-year contract extension. It's just the latest in a string of deals for the Aces over the last six months, turning them from a franchise with a host of question marks heading into 2023 to a team with the majority of their key pieces locked up. First, there was the two-year deal with A'ja Wilson at the standard max, when she could've signed for one year in order to become an unrestricted free agent eligible for the supermax in 2023. Then, there were extensions with both Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, with Young taking a two-year deal starting at $165,000 that looks like a steal, and Gray adding two more years at this year's max value of $196,267 (less than she might've demanded as well, considering the supermax figure will be above $240,000 by the second year of that contract). All four of those players have taken less money than they might've asked for or been able to get on the open market if they waited for free agency.
That leaves one big name unaccounted for. You have to imagine the Aces have made overtures towards Kelsey Plum about an extension, but to this point there's been no deal. At time of writing details of Hamby's deal are still being confirmed, but it's reported to be two years for $169,000 per season. If that's accurate, they'd have eight players under contract in 2023 for $1,081,696. That leaves $338,804 of cap space for at least three players. Fill two of those spots with absolute minimum salaries and you're left with $214,234 for the final spot. That's more than any of Las Vegas's signed group are scheduled to make, and more than next year's regular max of $202,154 - the most Plum could be offered by another team as an unrestricted free agent. However, it's also significantly less than the supermax of $234,936 that she's eligible for. So would it be enough to get the deal done?
You'd think it might well be, considering everyone else in Vegas has taken a little below their ceiling in order to stay where they're happy and keep the gang together. But everyone has their own priorities and has to make their own decisions. Maybe she wants to maximise her earnings after a season where we may well be seeing her at her absolute peak. Maybe there's another city she'd rather play in. Maybe she wants to be the headline act, rather than one of the Supremes.
If all she wants is more money, Vegas can create extra space. Obviously anyone could be traded, and they could create small scraps of additional space by switching out Kierstan Bell, Aisha Sheppard or Iliana Rupert for players on the rock-bottom minimum. But the primary source of further space would probably be removing Riquna Williams from the equation. She's signed for $149,350 next season, a deal that is likely tradeable as long as she stays healthy for the rest of this season. It's also unprotected, so they could also simply cut her if they wanted to. Then, they could give Plum anything up to the supermax if that's what it took, and they were willing to go there. Only the people within the organisation would know whether that would upset the other Aces players who've already agreed to deals for less.
It's also worth noting that without making a move like trading Williams away very early in free agency, the Aces cannot core Plum. To use the core designation you have to possess the cap space for the core qualifying offer, which is at the supermax figure, and once you include cap holds for the ninth and 10th roster spots they'd only have that $214,234 mentioned earlier. So they'd be forced to allow Plum to become a true unrestricted free agent.
Hopefully by then, they'll have an even greater understanding of their own situation and Plum's thinking. Or maybe they'll have a contract in hand. She can still sign an extension at any point until the end of the regular season, starting at anything up to 120% of her current contract. She's on $180,250, so the extension could start at $216,300, in theory. So far, all the evidence suggests that people like playing for the Aces and this group likes playing with each other. Adding a new Plum deal to their pile of signed contracts may well be just a matter of time.
Gray Areas
The all-star reserves have been announced, and like I said last week, there were plenty of worthy names on the outside looking in. Among others, Allisha Gray, Chelsea Gray, DeWanna Bonner, Elena Delle Donne, Kelsey Mitchell, Natasha Cloud, Marina Mabrey, Ezi Magbegor, Tina Charles and Diana Taurasi were all left out. I thought both Grays thoroughly deserved to be there, and very good cases can be made for Delle Donne and Mitchell at the very least.
Of course, the issue when people talk about 'snubs' is who you would've left out of the players who made it. You can watch or listen to last week's podcast to see who I picked, but the Copper selection seems a little based on her performances and reputation from last season rather than the early stages of this year. Plus I'd definitely have had a pair of Grays before a pair of Howards. But anyway, it's done now. Always nice to have too many players who feel like viable all-stars rather than get to the mid-teens and find yourself searching for names to put in those last few spots. That's definitely been the case in a couple of past years.
Reckless Endangerment of My Sanity
All these plays happened on the same night, across two games last week.
Two of them were reviewed - but in one case only to check the shooter was behind the arc - two of them were not. The one that was reviewed for a "reckless closeout" was ruled a flagrant foul. I'm not telling you which was which because it's absurd, isn't it? They're the same damn play.
This call is swiftly becoming my least favourite rule in the game and not because I think there's anything wrong with the call or the intent, or even that I dislike shooters being able to jump forwards several feet to create contact and draw a whistle (much as that can be annoying too). It’s not even that we desperately need a time limit on official reviews to prevent the referees watching endless tape while we all lose the will to live. It's the wild inconsistency. One officiating crew can decide they're calling it on a given night, while another forgets it even exists. Or they review one instance and entirely ignore others, even during the same game.
It's a rule or it isn't. Make up your damn minds before someone calls it in the fourth quarter of a playoff game out of nowhere and drives everyone completely insane.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Richard, I thoroughly enjoy your analysis and honest opinions. Thanks for your work.