WNBA Dissected: FIBA say no to Nigeria and more from Week 9
WNBA Dissected: FIBA say no to Nigeria and more from Week 9
Requests to switch nationality denied, Team USA lose out to Team WNBA, trying to judge teams more accurately than the standings and more from the world of women's basketball
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1. Nigerian No-Go
According to reports from ESPN, requests from the Nigerian Basketball Federation to allow Nneka Ogwumike and Elizabeth Williams to play for them in the upcoming Tokyo Olympics have been denied by basketball’s international governing body FIBA. The appeals are already underway, but given how close we already are to the Games and the fact that it would've essentially taken special dispensation from FIBA’s secretary general to let them in, I personally don’t expect the decision to be overturned (even if they take it all the way to the Court of Arbitration for Sport).
Before I explain my opinion on the situation, I want to acknowledge that there are various reasons why so many people would like to see Nneka Ogwumike in particular make it to Tokyo. Mechelle Voepel laid out the case nicely at ESPN immediately after the decision was reported. You can also just take a quick look at social media and see all the people arguing how wronged Nneka has been. I happen to completely disagree.
There has to be some level of definition and structure to international sport. If you let anyone play for any country they choose then it basically becomes club basketball with reordered teams, and the top countries would potentially become whoever's willing to spend the most cash. Different sports have different eligibility rules, but with minimal variation FIBA's have said for quite a while that each country can only use one naturalized player, and that once you play in a major competition for one country you then can't switch (apart from very occasional exceptions). We've seen a lot of Americans gain the passports of other countries and fill their naturalized spots, but it's been kept somewhat under control via that one player rule, and the fact that the player had to pick. If you play for Team USA at a major competition, you can't then wander off to play for some tiny foreign state. Similarly, if you take up the opportunity to play for a different country - and a European passport can be very valuable in making extra money at club level in Europe - then you wave goodbye to playing for the US.
This situation is admittedly a little different. All the Ogwumike sisters and Williams have Nigerian heritage and dual nationality, so it's not quite the same 'gun for hire' move that we often see. That said, Nneka played for many years for Team USA, including at multiple World Cups, and Williams played for the US at the FIBA AmeriCup only two years ago (which makes an appeal even less likely to succeed for her, given the IOC’s own rules say people can switch nationality after a three year gap). Under FIBA's rules that basically blocks them from switching to Nigeria, with the caveat that "in exceptional circumstances the Secretary General may authorise such a player to play for the national team of his or her country of origin, if this is in the interest of the development of basketball in this country."
That's the clause that the players and the Nigerian federation were hoping would work in their favor. As Voepel argues, the potential success of Nigeria with added firepower could draw extra interest in Africa and potentially help spread the game. That said, what about the countries that have fed millions into developing their basketball structures (Belgium, Serbia, Japan, and plenty of others) and earned the right to challenge for international medals with the resulting squads? What about encouraging future national federations to develop internally like that, rather than hope that some talented Americans happen to have some ancestry that allows them to swap over and help out?
In making their decision, FIBA likely will also have been concerned about setting a precedent that would encourage future nation-swapping. The further you break down the boundaries between countries and national teams, the less likely it is that the international structure will hold up and remain somewhat meaningful. They want to encourage the development of basketball as a global presence, but they also need the competitions to continue to draw interest and be seen as worthwhile by both the players and the public. This is perhaps where my perspective leads to a different viewpoint than Voepel or a lot of the primarily-American voices online. Despite the popularity of the US Women’s National Teams in basketball and soccer, relatively speaking the US really doesn't pay much attention to international sport. Americans care about the Olympics for two weeks every four years, but even World Championships in their various sports tend to draw a limited percentage of American eyeballs. Much of the rest of the world takes this stuff pretty seriously. The performance of national teams at various senior level competitions in whatever sport you follow is a big deal. England basically shut down in recent weeks as everyone lived and died with the men’s national soccer team's performance in the European Championships, and I just spent £500 on tickets for the women's version next year. International competition matters to people across the globe and isn't just an avenue to get players you feel were 'snubbed' by one team into the Olympics for another.
FIBA have allowed Chiney Ogwumike to join her sister Erica on the Nigerian roster, albeit only as a naturalized player, presumably because while Chiney represented the USA at youth levels she never made it onto the senior squad at a major competition. This makes sense to me. It's not someone who made a host of appearances for one country switching over to another - it's someone who played for one place as a kid, and has grown up and wants to use her other passport. Fine, go for it. But don't try to convince me that blocking Nneka Ogwumike from representing Nigeria is some huge injustice. After a decade of playing for one country, you shouldn’t be able to just run off to someone else when they've decided you don't make the team any more. That's not discrimination or unfairness - it's the rules, and an effort to stay fair to everyone else.
2. Is this just fantasy?
So we're halfway through the regular season. Well, actually we're more than halfway through. In days, we've played 59 of 95 days (62%); in games, we've seen 119 of 192 (also 62%). However, my point here is that we use some rough numbers and terminology to describe the current state of the season - and those rough numbers include the standings. So can we find a more realistic view of the teams than their win-loss records?
There are various other assessments of performance. Net rating is mentioned a lot here, because it adjusts for pace and provides a more realistic value than simply points scored and points allowed. Different websites calculate it slightly differently, so there's some variation in the resulting numbers, but there's general agreement that Las Vegas have been the best team in the league over the first half by that metric. It's then a close battle between Seattle and Connecticut for 2nd, with Minnesota and Chicago tight for 4th, and Dallas practically in a category of their own in 6th. The bottom half of the league starts with a close fight between Phoenix and Washington for 7th, Atlanta and New York then right next to each other for 9th, before Los Angeles in a clear 11th on their own and Indiana a distant last. Obviously these numbers don't care about any injuries or absences different teams have had, who might be showing up post-Olympics or how many minutes of garbage time you've played already this year. But history tells us that these numbers tend to be a useful depiction of true performance, without the significant variation in record caused by luck (good or bad) in close games.
Similarly, there's something called Pythagorean Record, which uses points scored and points allowed to calculate what a team's record 'should' be. Again, Vegas are top with an expected record of 17-4, albeit only a game ahead of Seattle at 16-5, with Connecticut right behind them at 15-5. Chicago and Dallas both take a big leap up from their actual win-loss records, sitting at 12-8 and 12-9 respectively, right behind 12-7 Minnesota. Then, as with net rating, there's a clear gap between the top and bottom six. Washington are top of that pack, just ahead of Phoenix, with similar groupings as with the ratings.
One other way we could try to judge the real quality of the teams would be to remove some of the earlier games, where players hadn't arrived or teams were still settling in. Switching to net rating for just the last ten games, for example, it's interesting that Las Vegas are still a clear No. 1, despite a couple of losses just before the break which dropped them off the top of many 'Power Rankings'. That same gap between the top and bottom six is still there, although Connecticut drops back a little - understandable considering their last ten games includes the five Jonquel Jones missed while in Europe. It does help out Indiana, who move all the way up to 9th, illustrating their recent shift into being a fairly typical bad team, rather than one threatening all-time records for badness.
Of course, there are imbalances in all these numbers. Some teams have played tougher schedules, and if this was the NBA we'd be talking about how 20 games was a small sample size (which in some ways it is, but in most ways the NBA just plays way too many games). The Olympic break always creates a strange season every four years, where things can change in unexpected ways for the stretch run and the playoffs. Sometimes teams lose their way with their momentum broken, or new injuries, trades or arrivals can swing teams in either direction. But regardless, it's always worth looking a little beyond what the basic standings are telling you. Looking at numbers like net rating often provides a more accurate reflection of performance than you’ll see in the regular standings.
3. All-Star Spots
As regular readers will be aware, I'm not the biggest fan of All-Star games. The basketball tends to be virtually unwatchable, and the sideshows aren't enough to keep me entertained. This year was a little different. It still wasn't quite a proper game - there were 19 fouls called all night, and only 17 free throws - but the Team USA vs Team WNBA structure made it a contest. Both sides gave a damn, and the fact that it stayed close helped as well. If either side had been up 20 in the final quarter, we might've seen paths cleared for attempted dunks; instead we had both sides battling it out to the finish, until Team USA realized they'd run out of time to bridge the gap.
The loss in and of itself isn't a huge deal for the USA. On a pure talent basis Team WNBA was comfortably the strongest squad they'll face all summer, plus the US are obviously still in the process of trying to coalesce into a team. However, there were some interesting indications of what might be to come, and a few mildly worrying concerns for the US.
Despite the move to add an extra wing player to the squad rather than another post (like, say, Nneka Ogwumike), Breanna Stewart still started the game at the 3. She spent the vast majority of her minutes at that spot over the course of the game, playing as essentially a perimeter player. Stewart can certainly perform that role - she won MVP at the World Cup three years ago as a 3, and played there a lot for UMMC Ekaterinburg this year. She'd be one of the best players in the world as a full-time 3. But it's still not her most effective position, or where she's been playing for Seattle all season. Once Diana Taurasi is healthy maybe we'll see her as a de facto 3 alongside two other guards, sliding Stewart more to the 4, but Wednesday night was an indication that Dawn Staley still seems to view Stewart as a regular wing option. It would be a stretch to call the position a 'hole', but the US haven't really played with a natural 3 at a major tournament since Tamika Catchings retired (and Angel McCoughtry started picking up major injuries).
The other primary element that Wednesday night seemed to highlight about Team USA was their lack of a player like the MVP of the game, Arike Ogunbowale. The US obviously have a lot of people who can get their shot whenever they want. But they have a lot of guards who are willing to sit back and wait, or pick their moments. Jewell Loyd, Ariel Atkins, Sue Bird, Chelsea Gray and even modern-day Diana Taurasi are often willing to play a secondary role offensively to high-scoring teammates - Ogunbowale wants the ball and wants to shoot. This obviously comes with negatives as well - when the ball isn't dropping, that kind of player can shoot you out of games just as easily as they can win them - but Ogunbowale is the sort of player who forces the action. Team USA sometimes feels just a little bit too nice. Everyone recognizes how good everyone else is, and wants to make the extra pass or the 'right' play. Sometimes you just want them to illustrate that they're the best basketball players on Earth and go get a bucket.
Of course, none of this is likely to matter. There are some good teams going to Tokyo, and on a bad night for Team USA an upset isn't beyond the realm of possibility. But typically, talent wins out. And player-for-player, as usual, the Americans are comfortably the most talented team heading to the Olympics. However, as Wednesday night illustrated, a motivated opponent can be a dangerous thing, even against a team that's won the last six Olympic gold medals.
4. Lineup Minutiae
Okay, admittedly more roster and cap minutiae this week, but close enough. First up, there have been reports in Italian media that Cecilia Zandalasini could be returning to the WNBA after the Olympics for the closing stages of the 2021 season. I'm always in favor of talented players from around the world being added to the pool of talent in the WNBA. However, it's hard to see how this would be achieved at the moment. Zandalasini isn't under a WNBA contract, but her exclusive negotiating rights are held by Minnesota. The Lynx are already over the salary cap, and have 12 players under contract (so no open spots). Given that we're past the midpoint of the season, all standard contracts have become guaranteed for the season, so they can't just cut someone to create cap space. It looks like the only way to create space would be to make a trade, but even those are tricky to construct. They could also trade Zandalasini herself, but what's the value of a very talented 25-year-old wing who hasn't played in the WNBA since 2018 and could have future summer commitments? She may want to play in the US in 2021, but may find that she's forced to wait until next year.
A small note that I failed to mention on Kiah Stokes and the Las Vegas Aces last week. Stokes and Layshia Clarendon were signed on the same day and therefore had the same prorated minimum salary - the $33,914 that Minnesota signed Clarendon to. Vegas instead gave Stokes $35,200, a nice little bump which meant she drew closer to the amount she would've made on her original deal with New York before agreeing to a buyout with the Liberty. The interesting part here is that 35,200 is neither a round number, nor every cent that the Aces had remaining. Instead, it leaves Las Vegas with $820 in cap space. The only reason that I can come up with for actively leaving themselves a sum like that is that the one-day minimum salary for a veteran player (i.e. someone with at least three Years of Service in the WNBA) is $737. And with 11 players on the roster, the Aces have an empty roster spot. So technically, Vegas has left themselves the option of signing someone on September 19, the last day of the regular season, who would then be eligible for the playoffs. They do also happen to have someone on their coaching staff who was a player as recently as last season, who probably still acts as a practice player when they need one. I'm not saying that any of this is necessarily the plan, just that it could be the plan. Especially when Bill Laimbeer's in charge.
Clark's Corner
Allow me to close out the first half of the season with another player I have a distinct fondness for. I fully accept that I misjudged Karlie Samuelson initially. I thought she was one of those players who just hung around the arc jacking threes and was a passenger in every other aspect of the game. Then you start to pay a little more attention and see a whole lot more. Samuelson does the grunt work. She digs for steals, she takes charges, she dives on the floor after loose balls. All the dirty work your superstars don't want to bother themselves with, she'll be in the trenches getting it done, all with a smile on her face and a hop in her step. Plus she's a three-point sniper, obviously.
At 6-13, the Sparks have been a poor team this year, and she's not the kind of player who's going to change that on her own. But like a Carleton, Bradford and other players who've appeared in this space all season, she'll make the extra little plays that teams need. It's those kind of plays that keep you hanging around on the fringes of the league when you're on the margins. Coaches know you'll give them everything, and that's exactly what they want.
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