WNBA Draft Day Surprises
Recapping recent draft picks that were selected higher than their mock draft average
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In 2021, the Indiana Fever shocked the world by taking Kysre Gondrezick with the 4th overall pick in the WNBA Draft. Seasoned draft analysts and casual women’s basketball fans alike were surprised by the selection since the West Virginia product had been projected as a second or even third round pick in many mock drafts. So what did public analysts miss that the Fever were so excited about? In Gondrezick’s case, maybe nothing, as the Fever chose to waive her in January. Draft evaluation is one of the most difficult tasks in any sport with so many factors that influence a player’s future success. Let’s take a look at some recent draft surprises year-by-year and see how the selections have panned out in the WNBA so far.
2021
Last year was, of course, the Kysre Gondrezick pick. The West Virginia guard was perhaps the biggest surprise in recent draft memory, going from a second to third-round pick on most boards to 4th overall. Unfortunately, she was drafted to an Indiana Fever team that had many internal struggles, and after an underwhelming start to her rookie season, Gondrezick left the team for personal reasons. While she was a dynamic scorer in college, her production was often a result of high volume shooting and usage, and her inability to adapt as a role player in the WNBA was evident from the start. However, Gondrezick is still very young, and after being released by the Fever this offseason she will get a fresh start at Chicago Sky training camp to prove she was worth that lottery selection.
2020
The biggest surprise in 2020 was Mikiah Herbert Harrigan, who was drafted by the Minnesota Lynx 6th overall after being a consensus 10th-15th best available player in the public mocks. MHH took a while to blossom at South Carolina, not becoming an efficient inside scorer until her senior year, which may have hurt her draft stock with the media. Nonetheless, a 50.6% clip from the field in a competitive SEC is no small feat, and her 1.8 blocks per game was in the 98th percentile in 2019. After her rookie season, the Lynx traded Herbert Harrigan to the Seattle Storm, but she missed the entire 2021 season due to pregnancy. It is too early in her career to determine whether the Lynx reached or whether we underrated her potential.
2019
Many of the players that will be mentioned in this article went to schools that are not typically highlighted as women’s basketball powerhouses, but the 2019 draft was a different story. While the lottery played out as expected once Jackie Young declared early, NC State guard Kiara Leslie and Young’s Notre Dame teammate Brianna Turner were drafted 10th and 11th respectively after not appearing in the first round of any major mock. Turner being projected low was probably a result of her production being lower while playing alongside Young and the 5th overall pick Arike Ogunbowale. While you could attribute some success to her teammates, Turner’s advanced statistics were off the charts, with an insane 1.14 points per possession her senior year. The Atlanta Dream immediately traded her to Phoenix, where Turner has shined as an interior defender and role player. Leslie on the other hand played two seasons for the Washington Mystics and is currently a free agent.
2018
There are not always high-risk prospects or teams willing to take those risks, and in 2018 the first round went largely as expected. Some people were comparatively low on Ariel Atkins as her selection at #7 was a few picks higher than anyone predicted, but that has turned into a great investment for the Washington Mystics.
2017
We have observed two success stories so far, but not every bold choice has a happy ending. In 2017, the only consensus among mock drafts was that Kelsey Plum was the #1 pick, but everything after her was a complete mystery. Leave it to the Dallas Wings to take a player at #3 who was not on a single first-round mock. Evelyn Akhator was a physical beast in her final year at Kentucky, scoring 16 points and grabbing 11 rebounds per game on 56.8% shooting. Her rebounding metrics were even more impressive, with offensive and defensive rebound rates in the 98th and 99th percentiles. However, she rarely got on the court her rookie year in Dallas, and was released after just one year. Ahkator went on to make contributions to the Nigerian national team, but would certainly be classified as a failed attempt to make a splash by the Wings.
The 2017 draft did feature another surprise, when Syracuse guard Brittney Sykes was taken 7th overall after only appearing once on any first-round mock (where she was projected 12th). Sykes made an immediate impact in Atlanta, but the defensive intensity she had at Cuse did not translate immediately. Since joining the Los Angeles Sparks in 2020, she has been one of the best on- and off-ball defenders in the WNBA, leading the league in steals last season.
2016
Kahleah Copper was drafted 7th overall by the Washington Mystics in 2016, and was subsequently traded after her rookie season in the blockbuster Elena Delle Donne deal. Copper took a few years to fully develop, but over the last two seasons has shown that she has the talent of an up-and-coming superstar. The Finals MVP during the Sky’s 2021 WNBA Championship run, Copper has been lighting up Europe in the offseason, which begs the question: why didn’t people see her selection coming? Well, espnW did. The site was close in their prediction, having Copper going 8th, whereas no other major news organization even had her in the first round. A key reason for this omission could be that her college team of Rutgers struggled in her senior year, failing to make the tournament a year after Betnijah Laney led the Scarlet Knights to the second round. Separating team success and individual talent is very difficult in a team sport, but the Mystics knew that there was something special in Copper and made a surprising selection that has since been justified.
2015
In 2015, Cheyenne Parker was projected 16th in one mock draft, was a post-first-round honorable mention in another, and didn’t make the cut in Bleacher Report’s mock at all. Naturally, Pokey Chatman and the Chicago Sky turned heads by drafting her 5th overall (and then Laney at 17, quite the draft class). Parker was a high-upside but risky selection, as she put up a dominant 17-point and 10-rebound per game stat line at Middle Tennessee State but was dismissed from the program before the end of the season. It was the second time she had been kicked off of a collegiate team for a failed drug test after a similar situation with High Point in 2013. The other concern was that MTSU did not have the high-caliber competition that a Power 6 center might face night in and night out. However, with Delle Donne leading the Sky and all-star Cappie Pondexter joining the team via an offseason trade, Chicago could afford to take a risk on a high ceiling player. While it also took a while for Parker to develop as a prospect, she averaged 13 points and 6 rebounds in the 2020 bubble season, which earned her a lucrative deal with the Atlanta Dream. She has yet to play in the WNBA since that contract was signed as she missed the 2021 due to being pregnant with her first child.
2022?
While many of these players are still on rookie contracts and thus hard to evaluate, some of these surprise picks have been successful gambles in a league that is brutal to break into. The best part about tonight’s draft is that there is no pattern to which players fall into this category. Speculation about what teams look for most in a pick is becoming increasingly difficult as roster crunches persist across the league. Teams also have far more resources than individual media companies to make these franchise-altering decisions. The moral of the story: do not be shocked when a name you have not seen all over mock drafts the past few weeks gets taken early.
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