WNBA Dissected: Fiercely fought Finals finely balanced
After Wednesday's overtime classic tied the 2021 WNBA Finals at 1-1, we take a look at how the series has reached this point and where it might be heading
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Sorry Sky fans, but for us WNBA neutrals Wednesday night - eventually - went the right way. If Chicago had won, this article was going to be a near-postmortem. What can Phoenix do to turn the tide? What chance does any team have from 2-0 down in a best-of-five, especially after losing two at home? Is Parker, Vandersloot or Copper your likely Finals MVP? Is Diana Taurasi about to play her last ever game? Instead, we're at 1-1 and we've got a serious contest on our hands. So what did Phoenix do differently in Game 2 that's made the 2021 Finals a whole lot more interesting?
Not a whole hell of a lot, frankly. They got a better offensive game from Brittney Griner, who carried them at that end of the floor for much of the contest, and they made some key clutch plays down the stretch. Otherwise, most of the schemes were the same and so were many of the flaws - we're talking about very fine margins here. The return of Sophie Cunningham gave Sandy Brondello an extra player that she actually trusts, taking that total from five-and-a-half to six-and-a-half (Kia Vaughn is the partial credit). They also had an extra day of rest with the two-day break between games. Given that the contest went 45 minutes and they asked Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith to play over 41 of them (and a gimpy Taurasi over 39) that little bit of extra depth and recovery time may well have been vital.
Defensively, Brondello still won't be happy. The straight-line drives and lanes to the hoop were still far too open for Chicago. The Sky scored 48 points in the paint in Game 1, and followed that up with 50 in Game 2 - all without a real low post scorer, apart from the occasional Candace Parker post-up (which usually only come these days when she has a smaller defender switched on to her). There were only 11 times in the entire 2021 regular season that teams had more than 50 points in the paint, and they won 10 of those 11. None of those came against the Mercury. The Sky aren't getting too many of those back-breaking transition layups that Kahleah Copper killed Connecticut with in their semi-final series - Chicago only has 10 fastbreak points in total across the two Finals games - but their movement, screening and quickness off the dribble is repeatedly getting them to the rim. If they keep giving up this many layups the Mercury won't win this series.
I'd like to see Phoenix concede more threes. That might sound dangerous, or even ridiculous given Chicago's almost five-out style and how much discussion there's been over the Sky's multiple threats, but hear me out. Chicago has a lot of players who can shoot from the perimeter, but they don't have many who genuinely scare you out there. Allie Quigley is one of the best gunners the league's ever seen, but beyond her everyone else is pretty ordinary. Vandersloot, Copper, Parker, Stevens and DeShields all shot somewhere from 30-35% this season (league average is 34%). Dolson cracked 40% but on pretty low volume and needs time to set herself, so defenders have more time to recover and get out to challenge her. The Mercury players have to be willing to give up an occasional look at a three to some of these mediocre shooters in order to protect the paint. Griner talked about it in the in-game interview between the third and fourth quarters of Game 2 - you have to help on penetration if the initial defender gets beaten, trust your teammates to help-the-helper behind you, and then rotate to fill in the gaps and recover. Obviously, it would be great if the perimeter players could stay in front of their assignments on their own, but defense is always a team responsibility. Things change if someone gets hot, but they have to force more kick-out and rotation passes from the Sky, and then challenge them to hit those shots. You're genuinely unlikely to lose the series to Copper, Stevens and DeShields hitting threes.
On the offensive end, Griner is still going to need more help. Chicago is defending her pretty well and she's still 19-34 for 49 points across the first two games. The defense has been much more coherent and consistent than she saw against Las Vegas in the previous series. The Aces started off with heavy double-teaming, which was easy to read because it never changed, and Griner could pick it apart by finding open teammates. Then they went to single-coverage which - apart from one bad game where nothing would drop - she was more than happy to attack. The Sky have been more considered and less predictable. They're trapping or hard-hedging a lot on the perimeter, but the doubles inside are only coming very selectively. Griner was more aggressive in Game 2, and it worked well for Phoenix. But it took Taurasi a while to get going, and while she made some big buckets at crucial times there were a lot of bricks and ugly misses along the way. Diggins-Smith had a great game as a distributor - and if Chicago keeps trapping her that will remain a central part of her role - but went 5-18 in Game 2. They're both forcing difficult shots at times, because that's all that's on offer (and because both will often make them anyway). But if the Mercury's other scorers don't start hitting shots then extra defenders are going to creep ever-closer to Griner, and everything becomes more difficult for her.
Despite the series being tied, it doesn't feel like Chicago has nearly as many things to worry about heading into the remaining games. Most of what they're doing is working, and with one lucky bounce or different call they could easily be heading home up 2-0. Courtney Vandersloot is generally doing whatever the hell she wants, from wherever she wants to be on the floor. Shey Peddy in particular got sliced, diced and fricasseed in Game 2 (which is probably why Brondello went with Cunningham instead down the stretch). The presence of Cunningham made life a little more difficult for Copper in Game 2, but she was still fairly effective. Copper jumpshots are something to watch in general in this series. If she's taking too many of them, especially from mid-range, Phoenix are doing something better defensively. While her outside game has improved she's still not a great shooter, so if they can get her to settle for those it's a win.
The combination of Parker, Stevens and Dolson - the three posts that James Wade actually trusts, however many times ESPN trots out that quote about him trusting and using all of them - has worked well for Chicago. They're different enough that it mixes up the looks that Griner sees, and all have enough range to drag both her and Brianna Turner away from the paint. Parker in particular has done a good job of barely guarding Turner at all, staying close enough to not give up too many lobs or easy cuts but basically playing center-field and helping wherever necessary. The fact that Phoenix has several players who don't really scare Chicago at all has already been a glaring difference in how the teams have to defend in this series. Turner, Peddy, Vaughn and even Cunningham don't bother Chicago, so they can trap and rotate without much fear about the second or two they may need to recover. Meanwhile, at the other end, Taurasi has nowhere to hide. Not the greatest defender in the world even at full-strength, 39-year-old Taurasi on one leg is doing the best she can. The Mercury switch and rotate a lot to help her out, but they don't want her at the point of attack against Vandersloot, or trying to keep up with Copper's athleticism, which means she has to chase Quigley around a million screens. That's exhausting, but there aren't any good alternatives.
Some other random notes from the opening games:
Diggins-Smith is so good with her right hand now, it's unreal. She's left-handed, and could barely wipe her nose with her right hand coming out of college, but it's reached the point now where she often finishes with her right even on the left side of the hoop (which isn't always a good thing, but shows how strong and confident she is with it now). All her vital finishes at the hoop late in Game 2 came with her right.
That WNBA possession rule that Ryan Ruocco and Rebecca Lobo discussed with 90 seconds left in regulation in Game 2 is something that the officials have rarely utilized in recent years and it was a shock to see them, presumably, bring it into play there. Turner clearly appeared to be the last player to touch the ball before it went out of bounds, but in the WNBA officials are allowed to take uncalled fouls into account on replay and give the ball to the team who should have it, rather than just the team that wasn’t the last to touch it. Credit to Ruocco and Lobo for knowing the rule and explaining it - we have countless broadcasters around the WNBA who wouldn't have had a clue what was going on - but it was startling to see possession given to Phoenix. Vandersloot probably caught a piece of Turner's arm, but it's not like it was a barge or violent hack.
I feel like I have to address this because of the Twitter furor, but I didn't think Game 2 was particularly poorly refereed. The officials largely stayed out of the way and let everyone play, which meant fewer calls than in Game 1, but it was pretty even. Taurasi did push referee Tiara Cruse during the scuffle between Copper and Cunningham, trying to get to her teammate on the floor, and it was a little surprising that she got away with that without a technical (although Copper could also easily have received a tech or a flagrant for her part in the initial skirmish, and didn't). Personally, I hope the league doesn't suspend Taurasi or anything drastic like that. I don't even think the Sky would really want that. Let the players decide the outcome on the court.
Going forward, I'm not expecting any dramatic changes in approach for Game 3. Both teams will think that if they execute as well as they can, they can win the game with essentially what they've been doing so far. Maybe Quigley shoots better than the 6-23 she's put up so far from outside, maybe Diggins-Smith finds her range, or maybe Taurasi has one of those games. Neither team is deep - both are playing about six-and-a-half-player rotations - so fatigue could definitely play a factor with both Games 3 and 4 being played on one day's rest. The Sky are heading home to a sold-out arena, but they were much worse at home this season than on the road, and Phoenix was much better on the road. Everything's nicely in balance with a counter-argument on the opposite side. As a neutral, I'm thoroughly looking forward to the rest of the series, and my nerves are delighted that I don't particularly care who wins. Game on.
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