The Weekly Roundup: Chicago’s Dominance in Game 1, Takeaways from the Commissioner’s Presser, and GOAT Vote Issues
Examining the storylines from Game 1, summarizing the commissioner’s press conference, and the problem with the GOAT vote
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I’m emotionally drained. No, it’s not from watching the season finales of Ted Lasso and Squid Game on the same day (though that didn’t help). Rather, it’s from the conclusions of the two WNBA semifinal series last week. In a shocker, Chicago dispatched the top-seeded Connecticut Sun in four games. Las Vegas and Phoenix went the distance in their best-of-five series and gave fans a classic win-or-go-home contest. An MVP-caliber performance from Brittney Griner (28 points, 9 rebounds), Diana Taurasi doing Diana Taurasi things (24 points, including 14 in the fourth quarter), and critical minutes from Shey “Playoff” Peddy (15 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals) propelled Phoenix to the 87-84 win on the road in Game 5.
So, there you have it - it’s the Phoenix Mercury versus the Chicago Sky for the WNBA title. Will Phoenix capture its record-tying fourth WNBA crown, or can Chicago avenge its 2014 Finals defeat at the hands of the Mercury and claim its elusive first championship? We’re now one step closer to answering these questions, with Chicago taking Game 1 91-77. Speaking of which, let’s take a closer look at what happened in that match-up on Sunday afternoon.
Storylines from Chicago’s Game 1 win
26-4
Any conversation about Game 1 has to start and end with Chicago’s 26-4 second-quarter run. It changed the complexion of the game, transforming a 9-point deficit into a 13-point advantage and demoralizing Phoenix, who never got within seven points afterward. It also highlighted the near-limitless potential of Chicago’s offense when it is firing on all cylinders. The run featured Courtney Vandersloot’s exceptional dribble penetration, Allie Quigley’s uncanny ability to knock down the long-ball, and the deadliness of Candace Parker off the pick-and-roll. The scary part? I didn’t even mention Kahleah Copper (21 points, 10 boards, including five on the offensive end), who did most of her outstanding work in the second half.
The game-defining run was part Chicago’s brilliant offense, part baffling ineptitude by Phoenix on the offensive end. The Mercury’s six second-quarter turnovers, which led to six Sky points, was one component of the problem. But from a blown alley-oop by Brittney Griner to wide-open Shey Peddy and Kia Vaughn jumpers, Phoenix failed to convert plenty of quality opportunities.
The importance of rest
Phoenix knocked off Las Vegas 87-84 in an emotionally draining, series-clinching victory less than 48 hours prior. Skylar Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, and Brittney Griner played an average of 37.5 minutes in that contest. Meanwhile, Chicago clinched its semifinal series against Connecticut four days before the WNBA Finals.
Two days’ worth of rest versus four - it doesn’t seem like such a difference would have a substantive impact on Game 1. With all due respect to Diana Taurasi, history suggests otherwise. Across the 1,389 WNBA games where a team on one or two days rest played a squad on three or four days rest, the better-rested team has won 53.9% of the time and outscored its opponent by 1.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Mercury’s relative lack of rest manifested itself in a number of ways Sunday afternoon, including a high turnover rate and difficulty staging a second-half comeback. Phoenix’s 19 turnovers equated to a turnover rate (percentage of plays resulting in a turnover) of 21.3%, its fourth-worst mark all season. Also, with Sophie Cunningham and Kia Nurse out with injuries, the Mercury would have liked to slow the pace to preserve their starters’ energy. However, that becomes a difficult strategy to employ when facing a 20-point deficit in the fourth quarter.
The good news for Phoenix is two-fold. First, Sophie Cunningham is expected to return from her calf strain for Game 2, adding some much-needed depth to Phoenix’s roster. Second, Game 2 doesn’t take place until Wednesday evening, giving the Mercury some sorely-needed rest.
Cathy Engelbert’s press conference: Postseason changes, TV deals, and of course, expansion
WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert held a press conference Sunday afternoon and discussed a variety of topics from league expansion to the W’s five-year business transformation plan. Let’s dive into a few of the items she covered.
The components of the league’s five-year business transformation plan, including expansion
Engelbert frequently cited the league’s five-year business transformation plan during Sunday’s press conference. So, what exactly does it entail?
The commissioner explained that it involves investment in three areas: digital product transformation (i.e., bringing fans closer to the W’s content on their devices), giving players a platform to speak out about social justice issues, and growing the WNBA footprint. Regarding this last item, Engelbert clarified that yes, this includes league expansion down the road.
When are we getting league expansion? It’s a question at the top of nearly every WNBA fan’s mind. The league is currently in the data-gathering stage, so, unfortunately, the only definitive timeline Engelbert offered was that she would likely have more details on the plan for expansion next spring or summer. In her reply to a question from Sports Illustrated’s Ben Pickman, she did offer some insight into how the W is evaluating whether a given city can support a WNBA franchise.
“The data looks like it's going to read out some interesting information for us to start having exploratory discussions with certain cities and make sure that we can find great ownership groups to support a WNBA team and great fan bases,” Engelbert said as she dove into a few of the 15 or so criteria the league is using to assess new markets. “So that's why I think looking at how those cities are already supporting the WNBA through whether it's viewership, merch sales or other things, or whether they're supporting women's sports or women's college basketball are great indicators of how it would get supported if a WNBA team were to go in that market.”
Potential changes to the postseason format
The first two rounds of the WNBA’s current postseason format consist of single-elimination games. The elimination of championship contenders like Seattle and Minnesota in the second round has renewed conversations about the issues with the current structure. Several coaches, including Cheryl Reeve and Curt Miller, and players, like Breanna Stewart and Layshia Clarendon, have advocated for the removal of single-elimination games. In response to a question from ESPN’s Mechelle Voepel, Engelbert indicated that she’s aware of the discussions surrounding the playoff format and described the process for making such a change.
“I think it's great that there's so much discussion about the playoff format, and I think it was so exciting this year to have these single-elimination games, have some underdogs make it into the WNBA Finals, “ Engelbert explained. “From that perspective — and we see there's other single elimination like the Wild Card games in baseball, like obviously the NCAA March Madness tournaments. So it's exciting. Single-elimination games are exciting… We had a subcommittee around the format that Bethany Donaphin, the head of League Operations, has been leading. So we're getting a lot of input and feedback. Again, it's not as easy as just changing the format because when you add games, if you add a three-game series, you're adding a significant amount of games, and there's a lot of logistics to doing that and broadcast windows and arena dates and things like that.”
Engelbert believes that a decision on whether to change or keep the current format should come within the next few months.
The chicken-and-egg nature of investment in the W
This wasn’t a specific question, but rather a theme that permeated through several of Engelbert’s answers. Fan interest and resource investment are reinforcing mechanisms, creating a chicken-and-egg scenario that makes it challenging for a league like the WNBA to grow.
For example, Engelbert offered the following response to a question about why certain Finals games are shown on ESPN2 (and not the main ESPN channel). “Here's something where it is a supply-and-demand thing. If we can draw in more fans, draw in more viewers, there won't be a question as to which network we'll be shown on because we'll be the leader around that. That's why it's still important to tell the stories, to build on the momentum, to get more fans watching us.”
When asked by the AP’s Doug Feinberg about the possibility of having chartered flights for players throughout the season, Engelbert gave a similar reply. She explained that the league’s economic model did not support an investment in chartered flights during the collective bargaining talks in early 2020. “That's why we're doing the business transformation,” Engelbert stated. “We're making a lot of progress. There's nobody that wants this more than me, but we've got to chip away at this transformation, build more viewership, build more sponsors, build more media rights deals, and there will be a point in time when we can have an economic model for it.”
The WNBA’s five-year business transformation is key to the league’s future growth. However, if it’s not coupled with additional investment from the league’s corporate and media partners, getting more fans to view games will prove to be an increasingly difficult task.
The end of the GOAT debate?
Before Sunday’s game, the WNBA announced that fans had voted Diana Taurasi as the league’s greatest player of all time (the GOAT). Sue Bird, Maya Moore, Candace Parker, and Cynthia Cooper rounded out the top five vote-getters. So, that’s the end of the GOAT debate, right?
And that’s precisely the problem with the WNBA’s “Vote for the GOAT” promotion. Don’t get me wrong. Diana Taurasi is a perfectly defensible selection for this accolade. Though, for someone who is already marketed as the GOAT, it’s naive to think the result wasn’t pre-ordained. I understand it’s an attempt to generate buzz and encourage fan engagement. After all, everyone loves a good sports debate, particularly one surrounding a sport’s greatest player of all time. However, the GOAT vote serves to quash future discussion on the topic by suggesting that the debate is settled.
What’s in a name? Respect.
Earlier this season in an eye-opening piece for VICE, Britni de la Cretaz explored the alarming frequency with which WNBA announcers and broadcasters mispronounced players’ names. The newest Her Hoop Stats feature aims to address this issue and educate the WNBA community by providing audio of current players pronouncing their names. Please check out this great resource below! Whether it be on TV broadcasts, podcasts, or the public address at live games, the W’s players deserve the respect associated with having their names pronounced correctly.
This is an ongoing effort, and the Her Hoop Stats team is working to expand this database of name pronunciations to include WNBA alumnae and NCAA players. Please reach out to Her Hoop Stats’ founder, Aaron Barzilai, at aaronbarzilai@herhoopstats.com if interested in contributing to this project.
Other recommended content
For The Next, Jenn Hatfield analyzed which attributes are shared by winners of the WNBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award.
Alexa Philippou of the Hartford Courant detailed how Brionna Jones went from the second-to-last player off Connecticut’s bench in 2019 to becoming a WNBA All-Star, Second Team All-Defense, and the league’s Most Improved Player.
In the latest episode of the ESPN podcast That’s What She Said with Sarah Spain, Sarah spoke with Naismith Basketball Hall of Famer Sheryl Swoopes about her remarkable basketball journey, including the pressure she felt upon learning of her pregnancy before the inaugural WNBA season.
In honor of National Coming Out Day, ESPN spoke to 17 LGBTQ+ athletes, including Brittney Griner, about their coming out journeys.
The elimination of the No. 3 seed Minnesota Lynx and No. 4 seed Seattle Storm in the second round of this year’s WNBA playoffs had many observers clamoring for adjustments to the current postseason format. In a piece for Just Women’s Sports, Lyndsey D’Arcangelo explained how the current format came to fruition and discussed the pros and cons of some of the proposed changes.
WNBA trivia question of the week
Which team has the record for the lowest regular-season net rating (margin of victory per 100 possessions) of any WNBA champion? In what year did this occur?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.