Grading the Trade: Mabrey Goes to Connecticut

We break down yesterday's deal between Chicago and Connecticut that sent Marina Mabrey to the Sun in an effort to improve their title chances

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Yesterday afternoon, while some WNBA players were trying to make sure they'd packed everything necessary for All-Star Weekend in Phoenix and a couple of weeks in Europe, we saw that rarest of things - a potentially meaningful midseason WNBA trade. Feeling like they needed more to be a genuine threat for the championship, Connecticut acquired Marina Mabrey from Chicago (and New York's 2025 second-rounder, previously acquired by the Sky in the Rebekah Gardner deal). In return, Chicago received Moriah Jefferson, Rachel Banham, Connecticut's 2025 first-round pick, and the right to swap Phoenix's 2026 first-rounder (which they previously owned from the Kahleah Copper trade) with Connecticut's. That final element has been confirmed with multiple league sources, despite not being made remotely clear by the teams making the deal.

Let's take a look at this from all the perspectives involved.

New Connecticut guard Marina Mabrey, playing for the Chicago Sky. Photo credit: Chris Poss

Connecticut

I was hardly the first person to point out this issue with the Sun in recent years, but a tweet I sent out a couple of days ago after the Sun's latest loss to New York drew a little attention due to the striking numbers involved. Against New York and Las Vegas over the last two seasons, Connecticut are a combined 2-13; against everyone else, they're 46-10. That's how you end up high in the standings with impressive win-loss records, but still don't entirely convince anyone that you're a true threat to win the championship. Obviously, strange things can happen in the playoffs. People get hurt, other teams sometimes get rid of your biggest rivals before you ever have to face them, or things might just click at the right time. But the chances are that the Sun are going to have to beat either New York or Las Vegas in a playoff series to win a title - quite possibly both. And the Sun have struggled to do that with this core, even while dominating most of the rest of the league. Hence the impetus to make a deal like this.

Mabrey addresses a lot of Connecticut's weaknesses, at least to an extent. She gives them someone who likes to shoot threes, and has consistently shot above league average on significant volume (albeit not that far above average at 36% for her career). She can create her own shot and take some of the ballhandling responsibilities off the shoulders of Alyssa Thomas and Tyasha Harris, on a team that does need more options to simply create a shot when the offense bogs down. She's also become a pretty solid defender, with her ability to guard wings allowing Chicago to move to a small starting lineup with Lindsey Allen and Chennedy Carter alongside her. That'll fit in nicely on a Sun squad that always prioritizes defense. She basically gives them another option to ignite their offense on any given night without giving up much on the other end.

All of that said, this isn't exactly a perfect fit. They didn't give up a starter in the deal, so either Mabrey's coming off the bench or they'd have to break up their successful starting group featuring Harris, DiJonai Carrington, DeWanna Bonner, Thomas and Brionna Jones. That lineup has played 336 minutes together this season, far more than any other Sun group (the next-highest is at 56 minutes), and carries a net rating of +10.4. I'd expect Mabrey to begin as the first player off the bench, with changes only implemented later if necessary. Then it's a matter of how she fits in, and making the most of her talents. Because if all Mabrey does is wait on the wing while Thomas and Harris continue to control the offense, she essentially becomes Rachel Banham with slightly better defense. And they already had Banham and decided it wasn't enough. Mabrey herself is a good player who's produced offense fairly consistently, but isn't a star despite her near-max contract. She's something of a volume scorer who can get hot on the right night and, after leaving Dallas in part to escape the shadow of Arike Ogunbowale, has found Chicago's offense shifting into the hands of Chennedy Carter this season instead of hers. It's an understandable punt from the Sun front office, but not a sure-thing significant upgrade on what they already had. On the bright side, her skills mean she can play alongside Harris or Carrington, or with both in smaller lineups when one of the frontcourt players sits. Steph White can go with whatever’s working on a given night.

The cost isn't that considerable. As already mentioned, there are similarities between Banham and Mabrey anyway, so they're replacing and upgrading there. Jefferson has been injured and already essentially replaced by Veronica Burton, so that's not a big loss either. The picks, while always somewhat valuable when first-rounders are involved, aren't a super-high cost. While the 2025 draft class is expected to be pretty good, the Sun are already 18-6 and unlikely to finish any worse than fifth in the standings even if the post-Olympic section of the schedule goes poorly. So the eighth pick in the draft, at most. The swap in 2026 would require Connecticut being worse than Phoenix in the 2025 season to mean anything. That's certainly possible - Thomas, Bonner and Jones are all on contracts that expire after this season, so the Sun roster could look very different in 2025, while Phoenix could have cap space to add alongside Copper and Brittney Griner if Diana Taurasi retires - but doesn't look wildly likely. There's a solid chance that those swap rights don't amount to anything. Mabrey could also help them remain competitive next year if they lose any of their three frontcourt starters, or if restricted free agent Carrington ends up elsewhere.

So I get it from Connecticut's perspective. They're built to win now and have done plenty of winning, but they weren't convinced they could go all the way. So you make a deal to improve those chances, sacrificing as little of your future as possible. I think they've done that, and they’ve even managed to move out more guaranteed money in 2025 than they took on. I'm just not convinced it moves the needle all that much in terms of their chances to beat New York or Las Vegas when it comes to the crunch.

Grade: B

Chicago

For Chicago, this is all about the rebuild. The Sky made it pretty clear with their moves in the offseason - headlined by trading Copper to Phoenix - that they knew they needed to build for future years. Whatever state James Wade had left them in, with the deal for Mabrey the most glaring part of digging the hole, they had to worry about 2025 and beyond more than the present. Therefore, the key parts of this deal for the Sky are the picks they're getting back. That 2025 first-rounder gives them another shot in a strong class, albeit one that won't be all that high. It's also an extra trade chip if another deal presents itself further down the line. The 2026 swap rights are a flier that could work out if Connecticut plummet next year and Phoenix improve, which isn't entirely outside the realm of possibility. These aren't Aces or Liberty picks we're talking about.

Jefferson and Banham are largely there to make the cap maths work. It had to be two players for the numbers, and given that Connecticut are trying to win a championship it had to be two that weren't particularly vital to them. For now, Banham can offer the Sky some extra perimeter shooting - they take by far the fewest threes in the league, and just traded away the only player on their roster who takes a lot of them. While if she ever gets healthy, Jefferson provides some cover at point guard if they can find someone who wants to take Dana Evans off their hands. They do both have guaranteed money on their deals for next year ($145,500 for Jefferson, $95,000 for Banham), which isn't ideal, but Mabrey has $210,000 guaranteed to her for next year as well. While it means they occupy two of the permissible six protected contract spots, and it’s never great to have protected money locked in for backups, they're more maneuverable in two pieces than Mabrey’s one big deal. They may well not play out those contracts in Chicago, whether that means buyouts or future deals, and the Sky have enough cap space that it's not likely to be a huge issue anyway.

It probably is a step back this year - Mabrey has been important to them, despite the criticism she often received from segments of their fan base - but that could be a good thing. The Sky don't entirely own their 2025 first-round pick, because Dallas has swap rights to it from the original Mabrey sign-and-trade deal when Chicago added her. But right now, Dallas have the worst record in the league. If Dallas end the season with a better pick than Chicago (either by virtue of the standings or after the lottery draw decides things), then the Wings won't exercise their swap rights and Chicago gets to keep their pick - making it valuable to keep getting worse. The performances of Carter, Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso et al may make the Sky too good to slip much further down the standings, but if they do, it won't be the worst thing in the world. Remember, it's a rebuild. There'd be value to playoff experience for Carter, Reese and the others, but there's also value to improving that pick and getting a better player in the draft.

This move also continues the move towards a fresh start and a reset of the organisation for Chicago. Their failures in free agency before the 2024 season may have forced it upon them (especially once Copper's reaction to those events was to ask out), but the new regime in Chicago led by GM Jeff Pagliocca and head coach Teresa Weatherspoon continue to put their stamp on the Sky. Reese and Cardoso look like building blocks, Carter has been an absolute hit of a signing so far, and 10-14 is a record significantly better than many people expected heading into the 2024 season. For as long as she was in Chicago, viewpoints on Mabrey were always going to be clouded by her ties to the Wade-led sign-and-trade deal that acquired her, and the expensive contract she signed at that time. Reportedly, Mabrey also asked out, just like Copper. This moves the Sky on from the whole situation, adds some draft equity, and makes it even more clear that right now the offense belongs to Carter.

The Sky were never going to get an enormous return for Mabrey, because her last year and a half in Chicago has only made it more clear that she's a good player but not a star, despite currently being paid at star level. Even with virtually every player in the league (who's not on a rookie-scale contract) expected to be out of contract at the end of 2025, the year and a half left on Mabrey's expensive deal made her an awkward fit for a lot of teams. The Sky found a landing spot for her, and cashed in for what they could get.

Grade: B

Players involved

From a winning perspective, Mabrey should be happy. She certainly has more of a chance to win a ring this season than she did in Chicago. But her minutes will go down, and she won't be in control of the ball as much (although much of that had also disappeared in Chicago with Carter taking control). She's also probably going to have to come off the bench, and she's been traded away from the city and team she chose to go to as a restricted free agent 17 months ago. So her happiness with these events depend on her priorities, but if she did ask for a trade this about as good a result as she could’ve possibly envisioned. The general hard-nosed, physical approach of the Sun towards playing basketball also feels like a good fit for her.

For Banham and Jefferson this is part of the business of American sport, unfortunately. Jefferson's already been traded once since signing her current contract with Phoenix, and this might not be the last time. Banham left Minnesota to return to Connecticut as a free agent, and is being moved on after barely half a season. But when you sign a multi-year deal for guaranteed money, this is part of the bargain you make. The cash is locked in, but if teams decide there's a move to make that improves their chances, you're just a piece on the board.

Loose ends

The Sky opened up a roster spot in late June when they waived Kysre Gondrezick, so trading one-for-two doesn't create any issues for them. They also had acres of cap space, so the fact that Banham and Jefferson add up to $28,500 more than Mabrey's current salary is not a problem.

The Sun had 11 players on the roster, so trading two-for-one does require additional moves. They now have $45,862 in cap space - their existing $17,362 in remaining space, plus that $28,500 gap between today's trade pieces. The pro-rated veteran minimum at this stage in the season is only $27,280 so they have plenty of room, and could even offer a free agent veteran a meaningful bump above the minimum if the player has multiple offers. Alternatively, with the pro-rated minimum for players with 0-2 years of service in the WNBA at $22,867, they actually have the room to add two players for the rest of the season if they want to. Or they may make use of seven-day deals to fill out the roster, as we've been seeing around the league in recent weeks.

Teams, please be clear about what you're actually trading in your press releases about trades. This feels like a pretty basic element of keeping your fans informed.

Summary

I get it from both sides. This actually makes more sense than the previous Marina Mabrey deal, where virtually everyone responded with "I like Mabrey but... damn that's a lot". Chicago have added draft capital for their rebuild, taken another step towards the future, and wiped away another remnant of the Wade era. Connecticut have added a useful player who can make them potentially more dangerous offensively, only given up backups, and hopefully not mortgaged too much of their own future. I know these are more fun when you can essentially call someone involved an idiot, but I get it. I'm just not sure that ultimately it's going to change all that much for anyone.

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