WNBA Betting: 2021 MVP Odds
Breaking down the best bets for MVP this season
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Now that we’re 11 days into the season, we’re just starting to get a sense of where teams and players stand in the landscape of the league. Then again, we still haven’t seen everyone on the court yet (looking at you, Napheesa Collier), so there’s quite a bit we don’t know. Either way, it’s never a bad time to evaluate some good bets, so let’s take a look at the MVP odds and which players are providing good value on PointsBet Sportsbook, the brand new partner and Authorized Gaming Operator of the WNBA. For more on how the odds work, see the first article in our betting series. Check out the full odds on the PointsBet website, but here are a few players who may have a better shot at MVP than their odds (as of 7 a.m. ET) would indicate:
Breanna Stewart (+200 odds, 33.3% implied probability)
Okay, this one isn’t exactly reaching for value. But every once in a while the obvious choice is actually a good bet. PointsBet has her as the favorite, and for good reason. It’s hard to argue against Stewie for the title of best player in the world right now, and perhaps the only reason she missed out on last season’s MVP was because her team was so talented around her while A’ja Wilson shouldered a massive load for the Aces.
That script has flipped. Gone are Natasha Howard, Alysha Clark, and Sami Whitcomb for the Storm. Las Vegas returned Kelsey Plum from injury and Liz Cambage from opt-out in addition to signing a superstar at their weakest position in point guard Chelsea Gray. A’ja is every bit the player she was a year ago, but Stewart’s value to this much less dominant version of Seattle can’t be overstated.
That, combined with the difficulty of winning back-to-back MVPs due to voter fatigue, should give Stewart the edge over Wilson. Pure talent and health give her the edge over everyone else. As early as it is in the season, it’s Stewart’s award to lose.
Jonquel Jones or DeWanna Bonner (+1300, 7.1%)
Sports can be a fickle, “what have you done for me lately?” business; it’s easy to forget how good a player is when you don’t see them play for almost two years. It hasn’t taken JJ very long to remind us — the Sun have roared out of the gates to a 5-0 start largely thanks to the stellar two-way play of Jones.
The last time we saw Jones in the WNBA, she placed third in MVP voting behind Elena Delle Donne and Brittney Griner in 2019, and there’s no reason to believe that she can’t be in that conversation again. Averaging 18.4 points per game on a 63.8% effective field goal percentage to go along with 10.8 boards, 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks, Jones boasts a combination of efficient scoring and elite rebounding and defense that few can match.
It may not be possible to play any better than Jones has this season, but if there’s one player who could make a case it’s her own teammate: Bonner is the only player in the league with more win shares than Jones. She’s also become more of a facilitator in her 12th season, currently ranking in the top ten in the league in assists per game at 4.2. The odds have Bonner and Jones tied for sixth, but at this point they look like better wagers than Wilson (who’s counting stats have taken a small dip with Cambage back in the fold) and Delle Donne (who’s back is making it tough for her to get onto the court).
Connecticut looks like the real deal, so this dynamic duo could stay within shouting distance of Stewart all season if they don’t take attention and votes away from each other.
Napheesa Collier (+1300, 7.1%)
Collier is hopeful to make her debut on Friday against the Storm, so in a few weeks we’ll know much more about how she integrates with the Minnesota newcomers. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where she doesn’t continue her ascension to superstardom though, given Cheryl Reeve’s track record for developing talent.
The Lynx haven’t gotten off to an ideal start and are still waiting on their first win, but that could actually work in Collier’s favor if her arrival alters that trajectory. Small sample or not, a team that struggles without its best player and succeeds with her is going to fuel the MVP narrative. Furthermore, there’s an established history of WNBA stars breaking out and winning the MVP in their third season: Lauren Jackson, Tina Charles, Elena Delle Donne, Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson. Don’t be shocked if Collier becomes the latest addition to that list.
Tina Charles (+3000, 3.2%)
The preseason hype around the former MVP seems to have been real, as Tina Charles has been on a mission early on. The 32-year-old looks to be in terrific shape and leads the Mystics in minutes through four games.
More importantly, Charles has proven to be more than capable of handling the go-to role on offense while Delle Donne remains out with injury, averaging career highs of 25.3 points and 1.8 threes per game. With questions around Delle Donne’s health, Charles should continue to see ample opportunity to put up numbers this season. The return of EDD could change that equation, but it also could draw defenses away from Charles and allow her to improve on her currently good-not-great efficiency.
Charles probably won’t win the MVP if Delle Donne contributes significantly this season, but if EDD’s back issues linger Washington could rely as heavily on Charles as Las Vegas did on Wilson last year. At +3000, it’s certainly worth a shot.
Someone on the Liberty (Sabrina Ionescu: +450, 18.2%; Natasha Howard and Betnijah Laney: +10000, 1.0%)
If you like safer bets, Ionescu is making waves as a pseudo-rookie and is easily the most likely member of the Liberty to take home the hardware. But at +10000, two of her teammates might be better wagers, especially on a sportsbook like PointsBet that allows you essentially treat your bets like stocks and cash them out midseason based on their current value. While Howard and Laney are longshots to actually win the MVP, both are one step short of a lock to improve on their current odds as the season goes on.
In Howard’s case, there’s a bit more guesswork as to how she’ll look with her new team since she just debuted for New York two days ago. What we do know, however, is that she’s capable of performing at a top-tier level (top five in MVP voting in 2019) and the 5-1 Liberty are a team on the rise. There has been some good (14.5 points per game on 55.6% shooting) and some bad (5.0 turnovers per game) in Howard’s first two games with New York, but with the way Ionescu and Laney have been executing ball screens so far, adding a roller of Howard’s caliber to the mix should be an excellent fit as they develop chemistry and find their groove.
Laney, on the other hand, has already answered the question of whether she’ll fit in with her new team with a resounding yes. The budding star has yet to score fewer than 20 points in any game this season and has upped her scoring average and her efficiency so far from an already phenomenal 2020 breakout campaign that looks far from a fluke. Throw in her 4.0 assist average and she’s posting a line only Diana Taurasi and Cynthia Cooper have ever achieved: 22+ points and 4+ assists per game. Expect a little regression, but not enough that the +10000 odds aren’t worth it.
This is Part 3 of our 2021 WNBA betting series. Here are our previous installments:
This series is about learning, so we want to hear from you! If you have any questions or any betting topics you’d like to see covered, please feel free to let us know in the comments or tweet at us @herhoopstats.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?