2022 WNBA MVP Race Update
With the season at the halfway point, who is leading the MVP race?
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We have almost reached the midpoint of the WNBA season, so it’s now time to see which players have emerged as strong candidates for the MVP award. Since the WNBA MVP is usually awarded to players on teams with winning records, this piece focuses on those players. I ordered the list below according to where I think these players stand in the MVP race.
Before diving into the rankings, let’s first define a few of the advanced statistics that will be referenced below. Win shares approximate the total number of wins a player produces for their team through their play on the offensive and defensive side of the court. Defensive win shares approximate the total number of wins a player produces for their team through their play on the defensive side of the court. PER is player efficiency rating which is an advanced statistic developed by John Hollinger to estimate a player’s per minute value from box score stats. Net rating is the offensive rating minus the defensive rating but simply put, it can be defined as how much better or worse the team is when a specific player is on the court.
*All stats are from games played through June 19th.
1. A’ja Wilson - Las Vegas Aces
The Las Vegas Aces are the best team in the WNBA right now and although the Aces have many great players, A’ja Wilson is shining above them all. She’s fifth in the league with 18.5 points per game and pulls down 9.5 rebounds per contest, second in the W behind Sylvia Fowles.
On the defensive end, she is one of the best shot blockers in the WNBA, ranking second in blocked shots with 2.5 per game. In terms of defensive win shares, she’s third overall with 1.0.
Wilson has demonstrated that she’s an effective scorer and rebounder, but what sets her apart from other MVP candidates are her on-court/off-court stats and total win shares. She has a net rating of 18.9 which is the highest on the team. Not only that, she ranks third in the league with 3.0 win shares. These eye-popping stats coupled with her dominance on both ends of the court make Wilson the leader in the MVP race.
2. Breanna Stewart - Seattle Storm
The Seattle Storm are among the top four teams in the WNBA, and the player most responsible for that success is Breanna Stewart. She’s leading the league in scoring with 21.8 points per game to go along with 7.6 rebounds per contest. Part of what separates her from the other MVP contenders is her defensive prowess. She leads the W in defensive win shares and ranks second with 2.1 steals per game. Seattle’s defensive rating when Stewie is on the court is 90.4 points allowed per 100 possessions, a far cry from its 102.9 defensive rating when she’s on the bench.
Taking it all together, Stewart leads the W in PER (player efficiency rating) and ranks second in win shares. That shows just how effective Stewart is among the best in the league and what gives her the edge in terms of the MVP race.
3. Jonquel Jones - Connecticut Sun
The reigning MVP continues to be a clear-cut MVP contender because of her ability to score and rebound in a highly efficient way.
She’s averaging 15.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, the latter of which is third overall. Despite a decrease in her scoring output since last year’s MVP campaign, Jones has put the ball in the basket more efficiently this season, ranking seventh in points per scoring attempt (1.27) and two-point field-goal percentage (60.5%). She’s continued her dominance on the glass from last season, pulling down 21.1% of all rebounding opportunities, second in the W. .
Jones is fourth overall in win shares and, even more impressively, ranks second in defensive win shares. All of this shows that Jonquel Jones is still highly effective and continues to be a winner for her team.
4. Emma Meesseman - Chicago Sky
The Chicago Sky has a talented group of players on its team and multiple MVP candidates (Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper). However, leading the way for them right now is Emma Meesseman. She’s averaging 13.0 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. A testament to her offensive efficiency, Meesseman is in the top 10 in field-goal percentage and two-point field-goal percentage. What’s particularly eye-catching about Meesseman’s resume is her 2.1 steals per game, which ranks third in the league. But the most notable stat that separates Meesseman from the rest of the Sky is her win shares. She leads Chicago and ranks seventh in the WNBA with 0.23 win shares per 40 minutes.
Will the early favorite A’ja Wilson continue her superb play en route to her second MVP award? Perhaps Breanna Stewart or Jonquel Jones will add another MVP to their trophy case. Maybe Meesseman or someone not listed above will capture the league’s top individual honor. The season isn’t even half over, so there’s plenty of time for things to change. It’s going to be interesting to see how this race plays out during the final two months of the regular season.
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