Mystics Madness or Tatum Trade Redux?

Breaking down yesterday's deal that sent the No. 1 pick in the 2022 WNBA draft from Washington to Atlanta

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!

Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?

---

Heading into Monday's 2022 WNBA Draft, the Washington Mystics shook up everyone's projections yesterday afternoon by trading away the No. 1 pick. The Mystics sent that top choice to Atlanta for this year's No. 3 pick, the No. 14, and the right to swap their 2023 first-round pick with Los Angeles's next year (a selection owned by the Dream after acquiring it in the Chennedy Carter deal in February). Let's take a look at what everyone involved in this deal may have been thinking, and whether that reasoning actually make sense.

(Photo credit: Baylor University Athletics)

Washington

My reflexive reaction to this deal was befuddlement at what Washington was thinking. In almost any draft there's a premium value to the No. 1 pick (let's ignore last year's class). This year, in the eyes of virtually anyone presenting a 'Big Board' or a mock draft, the top two are the same. Kentucky's Rhyne Howard and Baylor's NaLyssa Smith are the top two, one way round or the other. Almost everyone also has Ole Miss's Shakira Austin at No. 3. But that's consistently as high as you'll find her - third. So in a class with near-universal agreement that there's a top-two, the Mystics just traded down below that duo. For what seems like minimal return.

The No. 14 pick is in the range where players often fail to make a team, or don’t last long. The last three players picked 14th were Destiny Slocum, Kathleen Doyle, and Han Xu. Washington has a lot of open roster spots this year but have stocked their camp accordingly with a host of players who'll be fighting for those positions. No. 14 could easily be back on the street within weeks of being selected. The pick swap with LA has value considering the appeal of the 2023 draft - Aliyah Boston and Haley Jones will likely be in it, and the likes of Paige Bueckers and Cameron Brink could be if they declare early. However, LA has reloaded with the signing of Liz Cambage and addition of Chennedy Carter, aiming to improve significantly on last year. The deal would've had more value if it was Atlanta's own choice that Washington had the right to swap with, or if they'd simply received the LA pick outright. As it is, they might gain from the swap, but there's a decent chance it won't be worth much. The Mystics and Sparks finished last season with the exact same 12-20 record.

After calming down and considering the details, I could at least build a defense for this move from Washington's perspective. Essentially, it's the Markelle Fultz/Jayson Tatum trade. Back in 2017, every NBA draft expert had Fultz projected as the No. 1 pick. He was the consensus top choice, both inside and outside the league. But the Boston Celtics, who held that No. 1 pick, didn't agree. They backed their own assessments and moved down from one to three, while adding a future first-round pick in the deal with Philadelphia. Fultz went No. 1 as expected, and was an unqualified bust for the 76ers; Boston took Jayson Tatum at 3, and he's become an All-NBA player and probably the best player from that class (don't @ me, Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo fans). The extra pick became the No. 14 overall two years later, Romeo Langford, who you've probably never heard of, but that's not really the point. The initial assessment and move was right.

So this is Washington backing their own projections. They either see the top-three as too close to call and are happy to take any of them (as they've claimed), or even that's something of a smokescreen. Maybe they like someone - Austin, or another prospect that most mocks have had lower down - even more than the consensus top two, but are so confident that Atlanta and Indiana will take the expected duo ahead of them that the player they actually want will still be there. Just like Tatum was for Boston.

If the assessment of Mike Thibault and his staff proves right, then great. There's certainly a chance they come away from this looking like geniuses. Maybe they take Austin, or whoever, and that player ends up being the best from this class while Howard and Smith underwhelm. Maybe Thibault has someone in mind at No. 14, like when he took Natasha Cloud 15th back in 2015, to make that pick worth adding as well. Maybe the Sparks implode in 2022 and that pick swap proves hugely valuable. But all three of those look like longshots to me. For the No. 1 pick, I'd have wanted more of a return. If you don't like the top group of prospects, trade out entirely and get something more meaningful back. Find a deal that at least offers an extra pick in 2023, not just a swap. Or even an established player that has actually proven something on the pro level, rather than a pick (although that could've been complicated, given how tight Washington is to the salary cap). It's the second year in a row that the No. 1 pick has changed hands, but this year people actually like some of the players. That choice has real value. For going from 1 to 3 in a year where most see a clear top-two, they didn't get much.

Atlanta

Well why the hell not? Unless you really think the Sparks are going to be a disaster in 2022, this is a no-brainer deal for Atlanta. A second-round pick has minimal value in the WNBA, even near the top of the round, because a lot of the time that player's not going to make your team anyway. The Dream also hold No. 15, making the loss of No. 14 even less painful. They didn't have to involve their own 2023 pick, which given the rebuild they're going through was likely never on offer. They didn't even have to actually give up their other 2023 first-rounder. There's a chance the Mystics are good in 2022 and the Sparks aren't, but it's far from a certainty. Elena Delle Donne has played three basketball games in the last two-and-a-half years, and if she's out again (or looks like a ghost of her former self) the Mystics could easily be pretty ordinary. Then that pick-swap is literally nothing. There's a solid chance that Atlanta just went from 3 to 1 for pretty much zero cost.

The gain, obviously, is that the Dream can now take whomever they want. The roster is so open that there's no real issue fitting in whichever player they think that is. Howard would probably start at the 3, although could be eased along behind Nia Coffey or Megan Walker for a year if they really wanted to. Smith has a little more traffic in front of her with Monique Billings, Cheyenne Parker and Kia Vaughn under contract, but only Parker is signed beyond 2022. There would be plenty of minutes and opportunities available. Even if they're in love with the potential of Shakira Austin, that's fine too. Moving from 3 to 1 means they'd definitely get her rather than biting their nails hoping there aren't any surprises ahead of them, and the opportunities for Austin to get on the floor would be similar to Smith’s.

It seems unlikely, but there's even the possibility that Atlanta could deal the pick themselves. Thibault's smart enough to have called around about other offers, but if we take what the Mystics said at face value then they wanted to stay in the top-three. Maybe Atlanta felt the value in this deal was too good to turn down, but still aren't necessarily in love with the top tier of this draft class. Offer a young player to build around or an extra 2023 first-rounder from a team they expect to be worse than LA, and maybe they could be tempted to part with the No. 1 themselves. Stranger things have happened.

The Players

This part is hard to tell until Monday night. Generally speaking, I'd say it's probably bad for Rhyne Howard. Heading to Washington to play off Delle Donne and learn from Alysha Clark seemed like a great situation, where there'd be minimal pressure but still available minutes and a chance to be part of a winning team immediately. Delle Donne and Myisha Hines-Allen are both primarily 4s, the same position as NaLyssa Smith, and signed for a lot of money through multiple years, so Howard seemed the likely pick for the Mystics at No. 1. Now, assuming Howard and Smith still go 1 and 2 as expected, they're both walking into rebuilds whichever way round they're selected.

It could be good for Shakira Austin, or whoever else Thibault has his eye on at No. 3, if they're hoping to win games rather than just pile up stats. The Mystics have plenty of question marks - primarily around Delle Donne's health - but their chances of contending for a title any time soon certainly seem significantly higher than in Atlanta or Indiana. Only Washington’s top five or six players are really cemented in the rotation, so there are backup minutes to be earned if the No. 3 is good enough (and given their injury issues in recent years, potentially plenty more playing time available when someone breaks down). Ultimately, going third might be better than first or second, even if everyone always wants to be No. 1.

---

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.