Predicting What WNBA Teams Will Miss The Playoffs
Which four teams will be left out of the postseason?
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The WNBA is, in theory, one of the easiest leagues when it comes to making the playoffs, as two-thirds of the league’s teams make the postseason. Compare that to its men’s counterpart, with 53.3% of the NBA’s teams making the actual knock-out phase of the playoffs.
But here’s the thing — while the playoff field encompasses a larger percentage of the league than other leagues, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s easy to make the postseason. the battle for the final playoff spot(s) is usually extremely competitive.
Today, let’s predict the four teams that will miss the 2024 postseason. These teams are listed in the order of my confidence in them missing the playoffs, meaning the first team is the one I’m most certain won’t be competing in the postseason this year.
Chicago Sky
The Chicago Sky added some talented rookies in the offseason, grabbing Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese, but it won’t be enough to get the team to the playoffs.
The Sky saw an exodus of talent this offseason, headlined by the departure of the team’s top two scorers from last season, Kahleah Copper and Courtney Williams. Alanna Smith is gone as well. Chicago did add Brianna Turner, Isabelle Harrison, Michaela Onyenwere and Diamond DeShields as well as taking a shot on a couple of former lottery picks in Chennedy Carter and Kysre Gondrezick. But while there’s talent in that group, there’s no Copper there.
Chicago’s going to have some games where it looks competitive, but a projected starting lineup according to Richard Cohen’s roster previews of Elizabeth Williams/Isabelle Harrison/Michaela Onyenwere/Marina Mabrey/Dana Evans just isn’t a lineup built to win in this star-driven era of the W.
Washington Mystics
With Elena Delle Donne sitting out the 2024 WNBA season, the Mystics look set to finish under .500 for the fourth time in the last five seasons.
The Mystics have holes all over this roster. With Natasha Cloud now in Phoenix, Washington lacks a true point guard to lead the offense. Brittney Sykes will likely take on that role, and while she has the talent to be this team’s lead ballhandler, it begs the question of what the Mystics will do at the two. Does Shatori Walker-Kimbrough start there? Do you slide Ariel Atkins up to the two and start Karlie Samuelson at the three?
Then there’s EDD’s replacement, which will either be rookie Aaliyah Edwards or veteran Myisha Hines-Allen. We saw MHA excel during the Wubble season, but her numbers have dropped in each subsequent season.
On the bright side, the Mystics have one of my favorite center rotations in the league. Shakira Austin averaged 10.0 points and 7.0 rebounds last season. The newly-acquired Stefanie Dolson saw a drop in production in New York last year because the team added Jonquel Jones, but she shot 46.2% from three on 1.1 attempts per game, her third season in a row shooting 39% or better from deep. Dolson brings a different skill set to the position than Austin, creating some interesting versatility.
Los Angeles Sparks
With Nneka Ogwumike gone, the Sparks are heading for a rebuild. The good news for the future of the franchise is that the team had two lottery picks, adding Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson to the fold.
But this roster simply isn’t in shape to contend in 2024. The starting backcourt will be some combination of Aari McDonald, Lexie Brown and Layshia Clarendon, who are all good players but aren’t really game-changing talents. If we assume the two rookies start at the three (Jackson) and five (Brink), the only real strength seems to come with the one-two punch at power forward of Azurá Stevens and Dearica Hamby, who can also play together when Brink’s off the floor. But while those two players should excel next to Brink, the pairing of them struggled in 2023. In 460 minutes with both on the floor, the Sparks had a net rating of -9.76.
The Sparks do have the advantage of being coached by Curt Miller, and both Brink and Jackson could do some major damage right out of the gate. I don’t think this team is really in the playoff race, but they’re closer to it than Washington and Chicago.
Dallas Wings
This was by far the toughest, but with how close teams like Dallas, Atlanta, Indiana, Phoenix, and Minnesota are likely to be, one thing can be the deciding factor in the playoff race. That one thing is Satou Sabally’s health.
Wings president Greg Bibb recently revealed that Sabally will be out through the Olympic break due to shoulder surgery she underwent back in February. That’s at least 25 games that Sabally is set to miss in a 40-game season.
Last season, the Wings had a +6.04 net rating with Sabally on the floor per PBP Stats. With her off the floor, that plummeted to -4.46. The offense in particular fell apart with Sabally not playing, dropping from 111.16 points per 100 possessions to 99.85.
The Wings still have a strong trio with Teaira McCowan, Natasha Howard and Arike Ogunbowale, but the Sabally injury will expose the team’s depth concerns. Maddie Siegrist is the likeliest player to slide into the starting lineup in Sabally’s place; she played 8.2 minutes per contest last season.
There are also questions in the backcourt. Aside from Ogunbowale, the guards vying for playing time are Crystal Dangerfield, Lou Lopez Sénéchal, Veronica Burton, and Jacy Sheldon. Dangerfield will continue to start at the one and is coming off a strong year that saw her average 8.2 points and 3.1 assists per game, but she has some defensive limitations. Burton, meanwhile, brings defense but has offensive limitations. The other two have a combined zero WNBA games under their belts.
You could make an argument that Caitlin Clark doesn’t improve Indiana enough to get a playoff spot, or that Minnesota didn’t add enough in the offseason, or any number of arguments for the other teams outside of the top four of Las Vegas/New York/Seattle/Connecticut when it comes to debating this final playoff spot. But the Sabally injury and the depth concerns have Dallas in this spot for now.
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