Weekly Roundup: Playoff races heat up, Sue Bird’s heartfelt goodbye, and assist rates on the rise
Recapping the penultimate week of the WNBA regular season
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
It’s the final countdown! My apologies if that classic tune by Europe is now stuck in your head all day, but we are in fact inching closer to the end of the WNBA regular season. We know which teams will occupy the top five seeds, just not the order. With its win over New York last night, Dallas has also clinched a playoff berth. The Wings sure picked the right time to rattle off five straight, a streak that includes wins over Las Vegas and Chicago (both without Arike Ogunbowale). It’s largely thanks to Teaira McCowan, who’s recorded double-doubles in five of her last six games.
And then there’s the logjam in the bottom half of the standings, where five teams separated by just one game are jockeying for the final two playoff spots. Per ESPN’s BPI (excluding last night’s Liberty-Wings game), Atlanta and Phoenix have the inside track. However, losing Diana Taurasi to a season-ending quad injury could make life a bit more difficult down the stretch for the Mercury. For Minnesota, perhaps the arrival of Napheesa Collier gives it the spark it needs to sneak into the playoffs. Similarly for New York, maybe Betnijah Laney’s recent return propels the Liberty into the postseason for a second straight year (their season-ending home-and-home with Atlanta will go a long way toward determining that). Or imagine if Los Angeles parlays a questionable final-second call against Washington into a four-game winning streak and a spot in the postseason (yes, I know, they play Connecticut twice, so it’s highly unlikely). We’ll find out if any of these hypotheticals become reality in just five days!
Before diving into last week’s WNBA action, I first need to address the latest development in the Brittney Griner case. Last week, a Russian court sentenced Griner to nine years in prison and a fine of one million rubles (roughly $16,700) related to charges of bringing hashish oil into the country. As ESPN’s T.J. Quinn has reported, it was a foregone conclusion that greases the wheels for prisoner swap negotiations.
Upon hearing this news last week, I foolishly scrolled through the reactions on Twitter, particularly the replies to the major news outlets that posted the story. Understanding that Twitter can be an absolute wasteland, it was nonetheless disheartening to read the chorus of “she deserves it” and whataboutisms (e.g., what about the other wrongfully detained U.S. citizens, what about the other Americans jailed for minor drug-related offenses, etc.), suggesting that the United States government not lift a finger to aid a wrongfully detained citizen. I appreciate that Twitter isn’t representative of the United States as a whole, but how has the wrongful detainment of an American citizen by a foreign adversary not galvanized the country in support of Brittney Griner?
Please bring Brittney Griner home.
Three takeaways from Sue Bird’s regular season home finale
Three things stood out during Sue Bird’s final regular season home game Sunday afternoon. First, there was the capacity crowd of 18,100 fans at Climate Pledge Arena, a franchise record. It was an outpouring of support reflective of just how much Bird means to the Storm franchise and the city of Seattle. Second, this fan literally giving Sue her flowers during the game was absolutely adorable.
Third, there was Bird’s appreciation for the city of Seattle for giving her the freedom to be herself. Granted, there were some stumbling blocks along the way, notably early in Bird’s career when a season ticket holder cautioned Bird about going to the Wild Rose, a lesbian bar in Seattle. “I don’t know if this is the place you want to be,” the fan reportedly said. In the end though, Seattle provided Bird with a welcoming environment, really a second home, something for which Bird expressed her thanks on Sunday.
“I did want to acknowledge everyone who made today possible, not just this moment and having a sold-out crowd, but allowing me to be myself,” Bird said. “It took me a minute to figure out who I was...and you guys allowed me to do that.”
Stat of the Week: The year of the dime
The 1999 Charlotte Sting, a squad that included legendary point guard and cornhole breakout star Dawn Staley, holds the WNBA record for assist rate. A whopping 71.6% of the team’s made field goals were the result of an assist. This season, the New York Liberty has assisted on 72.1% of its field goals. So, they’re on track to take over the top spot, right? Not exactly. That’s because the Chicago Sky has assisted on 74.0% of its field goals this year. Of course, that means Courtney Vandersloot, Candace Parker, and company are poised to set the assist rate record, right? Sorry, you’re now 0-for-2. The Seattle Storm’s rate of 74.4% leads the W this season and would set a league record if the season ended today. Astonishingly, that means three teams this year (Seattle, Chicago, and New York) are on pace to finish with the three highest single-season assist rates in league history.
It’s part of a larger trend in the WNBA, where assist rates have increased in recent years, culminating in this season’s record-high league-wide rate of 67.4%. What’s driving this phenomenon? It certainly doesn’t hurt that the W is blessed with guards the likes of Courtney Vandersloot, Sabrina Ionescu, Sue Bird, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Natasha Cloud, who rank first, third, fourth, seventh, and eighth, respectively, on the all-time assists per game list. It’s also possible that the three-point revolution has played a role. As Brian Martin recently explained, 59.8% of all two-point field goals taken before the All-Star break were assisted; that number jumps to 88.3% for three-pointers. Lastly, the league-wide field-goal percentage has remained steady at approximately 43-44%. So, players are making roughly the same percentage of shots; a higher proportion of those attempts are from behind the arc, shots more likely to be the result of an assist; and a special, highly-skilled group of guards are here to take advantage. Sounds like a recipe for the spike in assist rate highlighted in the graph below.
Player of the Week: Breanna Stewart
When one of the two favorites for WNBA MVP drops her season-high point total and then repeats the feat four days later, she’s virtually a lock for Player of the Week honors. Breanna Stewart did precisely that, scoring a season-high 33 points in Seattle’s 89-77 win over Minnesota last Wednesday, and then followed that up with a 35-point performance Sunday afternoon versus Las Vegas. She averaged 34 points, nine rebounds, and shot a blistering 8-for 13 from beyond the arc during Seattle’s pair of games en route to her third weekly roundup Player of the Week accolade this season (tying her with co-favorite for MVP, A’ja Wilson).
Despite her team’s loss on Sunday, Stewart demonstrated why she’s in the MVP conversation. Even when she shot just 2-for-7 from the field in the first half, Stewart still found ways to score, getting to the free-throw line 11 times and converting nine of those opportunities. When the rest of her team struggled to find its offensive rhythm in the fourth quarter, shooting 2-for-8 and committing five turnovers, Stewart kept Seattle in the game, scoring 14 points on 6-for-7 shooting in the final period.
I’ve written endlessly about how she leads the league in nearly every advanced metric (win shares, Kevin Pelton’s wins above replacement player metric, etc.), so I won’t dive into those details again. However, allow me to offer one more Stewie-related stat, courtesy of our own Calvin Wetzel. Stewart, who has an assist rate of 18.2% and a turnover rate of 5.8%, is on track to become the first player in league history with a single-season assist rate that is more than three times her turnover rate (minimum 250 minutes played).
WNBA schedule this week (All times Eastern)
Here is a complete listing of this week’s games, start times, and where you can catch the action.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
In another of their film breakdowns, Coach Carolyn Smalls and Basketball Chess analyzed how the Mystics recently exploited the openings created by Las Vegas’ defensive rotations.
In this week’s WNBA Dissected, Richard Cohen explored the impact of several players retiring following this season and also offered his thoughts on the 2-1 first-round playoff format.
With the WNBA playoffs on the horizon, it’s a great time to check out Spread the Floor, Her Hoop Stats’ home for women’s basketball betting picks and information! Be sure to follow Spread the Floor on Twitter and YouTube.
Other recommended content
For The New York Times, Kurt Streeter discussed the lack of media attention Sylvia Fowles, arguably the greatest center in WNBA history, has received during her final year in the league.
On the Spain and Fitz show, T.J. Quinn spoke with Sarah Spain about the latest developments in Russia’s wrongful detainment of Brittney Griner (that conversation begins at the 41:20 mark of the episode).
Since she plays for last-place Indiana, Kelsey Mitchell’s career season flew under the radar. For BasketballNews.com, Nekias Duncan shed some light on Mitchell’s outstanding play this year.
The Athletic’s Chantel Jennings chronicled how Seattle has become a second home for Sue Bird.
The Next’s Hayden Cilley detailed how Sophie Cunningham has taken advantage of the opportunities created by the departure of Tina Charles.
Trivia question of the week
First, here’s the answer to last week’s trivia question:
Besides Cynthia Cooper, who is the only player in league history (active or retired) to average at least 20 points during their WNBA career?
Answer: Breanna Stewart
And now, here’s this week’s question:
Despite the three-point revolution, only three active players are in the top 10 of the WNBA’s career made three-pointers list. Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird, who rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, are two of the active players. Who’s the third active player, clocking in at No. 7 on the list?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.