WNBA Power Rankings Week 8 by Her Hoop Stats
Our final power rankings poll for the 2020 WNBA regular season
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After seven weeks since the season’s tipoff, another regular WNBA season is in the books, albeit a shortened, unconventional season in the single-site Wubble.
The playoffs will begin tonight in first-round, single-elimination matchups between the Connecticut Sun and Chicago Sky at 7 p.m. EDT, followed by the Phoenix Mercury and Washington Mystics at 9 p.m. EDT (both on ESPN2). The second round will feature the Minnesota Lynx and Los Angeles Sparks in their respective games on Thursday, and the semifinals, a best-of-five series, will begin Sunday, September 20.
In the final power rankings poll of the season, we take a look at regular season takeaways, good and bad, for each team. In our points-based power ranking system, each team gets 1,200 points for a first-place vote, 1,100 for second place, and so forth, and then we take the average for the overall ranking. This week’s poll covers games through Sunday, September 13.
1. Seattle Storm (18-4)
Points: 1,171
Good: The Storm ended the regular season with the second-best offensive rating in the league, just three-tenths of a point behind the Aces. But no team has come close to the Storm’s league-leading defensive rating of 91.8, the best rating a team has posted over a season since the 2017 Minnesota Lynx. The Storm held opponents to 40.1 percent shooting from the field and 30.6 percent from behind the arc, better than any other team. Alysha Clark,Natasha Howard, and Breanna Stewart could all end up on Defensive Player of the Year ballots.
Bad: Guard Sue Bird, who is the oldest player in the league, only played half of this year’s regular season games because of a lingering bone bruise in her left knee. She played the first three games of the season before missing the team’s next five. She returned on Aug. 12, appeared in four games, and then missed the next five, including back-to-back losses to the Fever and the Aces. Bird appeared to be back to form in September, but has been out since reaggravating her knee after colliding with Satou Sabally on Sept. 9. The Storm have proven they can win even without Bird, and she’ll get some additional rest while the team waits for the semifinals to begin this weekend.
2. Las Vegas Aces (18-4)
Last week’s ranking: 2
Points: 1,129
Good: A’ja Wilson is clearly the most valuable player on her team – possibly in the league – but five-time All-Star Angel McCoughtry has been an essential addition to the Aces’ offense this season. She’s had no problem getting back up to speed and contributing to the league’s best offense after missing 2019 to injury. She leads the Aces in points per play (1.07) and ties with Dearica Hamby in points per scoring attempt (1.22). While McCoughtry’s 14.4 points per game are her fewest since her rookie year, she’s shooting a career-high 51.8 percent from the field.
Bad: Las Vegas attempted the fewest three-point shots this year, not unusual for the Aces since Bill Laimbeer has been coach. The Aces did end the season with the best offensive rating and highest-scoring offense, but imagine how lethal this team would be if they took more threes. The team has shown they’re capable of attacking from behind the arc. Vegas made a season-high 10 three-pointers on 55.6 percent shooting in their 104-89 win against Minnesota last week and put up eight three-pointers in a win against stingy Seattle in the regular season finale.
3. Los Angeles Sparks (15-7)
Last week’s ranking: 3
Points: 1,000
Good: Candace Parker has always been a huge factor to the Sparks’ success, and her 13th year in the league is proving to be one of her best. This year, she finished the regular season averaging 14.7 points on 51.0 percent shooting, with 9.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game, all improvements from her 2019 season. Her field goal percentage is the best it's been since 2011, and she hasn’t grabbed as many boards since 2015. Head coach Derek Fisher seems to have figured out a better rhythm for his franchise player since leaving Parker on the bench for the majority of an elimination playoff game to end last season.
Bad: Parker leads the league in rebounds, but the Sparks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. They are last in both offensive rebounds and total rebounds per game. Nneka Ogwumike, who is usually in the top 10 percent of the league in rebounds, is posting a career-low 4.6 rebounds a game as she’s battled a bad back. Aside from their loss against Washington, who the Sparks let shoot 39 percent from three, poor rebounding has been a major factor in all of Los Angeles’ losses.
4. Minnesota Lynx (14-8)
Last week’s ranking: 4
Points: 871
Good: Rookie Crystal Dangerfield may have been Minnesota’s most impactful player this season. The Rookie of the Year candidate ended the regular season with 16.2 points on 47.1 percent shooting and 3.6 assists per game. Minnesota’s offense has made noticeable improvements from last year in offensive rating, points per game, and three-point shooting. Sylvia Fowles only played seven of the first nine games, yet head coach Cheryl Reeve has been able to get consistent offensive production from players like Damiris Dantas and Bridget Carleton. Last year’s Rookie of the Year Napheesa Collier’s growth into an elite rebounder and a better scorer has also been a crucial part of the Lynx’s success.
Bad: Compared to where some people predicted Minnesota would land this year, it’s hard to pinpoint a weak spot from this season. On head coach Cheryl Reeve’s podcast this week, she said the team needed to defend better inside during its three-game losing streak. She also pointed out the team’s .500 record since Fowles’ absence. Minnesota had the second best defensive rating in the league before Fowles was injured. Reeve said Fowles’ status for the playoffs isn’t certain.
5. Phoenix Mercury (13-9)
Last week’s ranking: 5
Points: 829
Good: Brianna Turner made a quiet, but noticeable impact last year, earning All-Rookie honors. This year, Turner’s tenacity and tough defense are demanding attention, especially without Brittney Griner by her side. Turner has improved in every major statistical category since her rookie season, including big improvements in field goal percentage, rebounds, blocks, and steals. Turner has averaged 12.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 3.5 blocks in the 10 games since Griner’s departure. She also holds the best defensive rating and the second-best offensive rating of any Mercury player this season.
Bad: How well Phoenix has played since losing Brittney Griner and Bria Hartley is puzzling. Even with Griner, Phoenix isn’t known for its defensive prowess, but only one other team is holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage. In the 12 games that Griner played, Phoenix held opponents to 44.7 percent shooting from the field. Since then, Phoenix has held its opponents to 40.7 percent shooting.
6. Connecticut Sun (10-12)
Last week’s ranking: 7
Points: 657
Good: DeWanna Bonner has taken over the show and the stat sheet in Connecticut, but Alyssa Thomas has made the biggest impact on the team’s turnaround since beginning the year 0-5. Thomas led the league with two steals per game and led all forwards in assists. She ended the regular season in the top five in the league for defensive win shares, and is just behind Bonner for offensive win shares – good enough for 12th overall in the league.
Bad: The Sun went from one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league last year to one of the worst in 2020. During the team’s 2019 playoff run, they made and attempted the most three-pointers in the playoffs, led by Jasmine Thomas. The decrease seems only natural considering that Connecticut lost Shekinna Stricklen to free agency and Jonquel Jones to opt-out. But it’s also puzzling that players haven’t stepped up to fill the void. This year, Kaila Charles, who made 10 treys total during her college career, led the team in three-point shooting percentage with 36.7 percent on 30 attempts, and Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis had the worst three-point percentage of her career. DeWanna Bonner, who has never been a super efficient perimeter shooter, led the team with 27 total threes this year.
7. Chicago Sky (12-10)
Last week’s ranking: 6
Points: 643
Good: Courtney Vandersloot had an MVP-caliber season, which isn’t necessarily a surprise for the league’s assist queen who manages to outdo herself every year. But this year has been special for Vandersloot, who broke the single-game assist record in August and her own record for single-season assist average, and Chicago has certainly benefited. Vandersloot averaged the most points per game in her career (13.6), her best field goal percentage since 2017 (49.1), and the best assist to turnover ratio in her entire career (4.06). She’s also improved from behind the arc compared to last year. She averaged 39.5 percent from three this year compared to just 29 percent in 2019.
Bad: Chicago’s season started going downhill after losing Azura Stevens and Diamond DeShields for the season. Stevens, who left the bubble because of a knee injury, was averaging 11.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks a game. DeShields’ production was already limited this year, as she had a decrease in minutes coming off the bench because of an injury, but she ended up leaving for personal reasons.
Chicago was also the worst team in the league at getting to the free-throw line this year. The team’s 14.9 free throw attempts per game is the second fewest in franchise history behind the 2017 season when the Sky went 12-22.
8. Washington Mystics (9-13)
Last week’s ranking: 9
Points: 471
Good: Most Improved Player candidate Myisha Hines-Allen was a bright spot in a tough season for the defending WNBA champions. While the Mystics experienced some ups and downs throughout a season that included losing streaks of five and then seven games, Hines-Allen was always a consistent producer for Washington on both sides of the ball. Hines-Allen ended the regular season averaging 17.0 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.5 steals a game. The fewest rebounds she recorded this year was four, and she had at least six in every other game. She also only scored in single digits twice this season. Hines-Allen has the highest player efficiency rating (PER) on the team, (10th highest in the league), and ranks 13th overall in win shares. Rookie Stella Johnson, who played five games for the Mystics before getting injured, is the only player on the team with a higher effective field goal percentage than Hines-Allen.
Bad: The inconsistent performance for other players on the team was a low for Washington, especially in August. There were times where the Mystics lacked energy, and leaders like Emma Meesseman and Ariel Atkins struggled to perform consistently. But the Mystics turned their season around in September, winning five of their last seven games and the final playoff spot. Washington’s luck might be turning around at just the right time in the season.
9. Dallas Wings (8-14)
Last week’s ranking: 8
Points: 429
Good: Arike Ogunbowale’s development is clearly the Wings’ most impactful factor this year, and the main reason Dallas was only one game away from making the playoffs. She led the league in scoring with 22.8 points per game and increased her overall shooting percentage from 38.8 percent to 41.2 percent. But Dallas also enters the offseason in a better place than they were last year. The league’s youngest squad improved its offense from 2019 and ended 2020 with a better win percentage, offensive rating, points per game average, and field goal percentage. Dallas also ended the season with the fewest turnovers in the league; the Wings ended 2019 eighth in turnovers and 2018 ninth in turnovers.
Bad: The Wings need to improve their defense if they want to be a contender. They ended the regular season giving up the most points per scoring attempt in the league, and Dallas’ opponents averaged the most steals and highest free throw rate when facing the Wings.
10. Atlanta Dream (7-15)
Last week’s ranking: 10
Points: 300
Good: Atlanta’s offense is much better than it was in 2019 when the Dream ended the season with the league’s worst record. Compared to 2019, the Dream improved in points per game, offensive rating, and field goal percentage, including efficiency from behind the arc. While the Dream missed out on a spot in the postseason for the second year in a row, they put up a fight and won four of their last five before being eliminated from contention. Dream fans can look forward to a team centered around Chennedy Carter, Betnijah Laney, and Courtney Williams in addition to Renee Montgomery and Tiffany Hayes, who both opted out of this season but are expected to return in 2021.
Bad: While Atlanta’s offense took a step in the right direction in 2020, the defense went in the opposite direction. After posting the top defense in 2018, the Dream plummeted to tenth overall in defensive rating and ranked last in the league for opponent two-point shooting percentage.
11. Indiana Fever (6-16)
Last week’s ranking: 11
Points: 186
Good: Despite the Fever’s disappointing season, Indiana has a future star in Julie Allemand. In her rookie season, she averaged 8.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Her assist total is second-best in the league behind Courtney Vandersloot, and Allemand rounds out the league’s top five for total minutes played this season. Allemand was a crucial piece for Indiana this year as they played without 2019 All-Star MVP Erica Wheeler, and Allemand’s future in Indiana is as bright as ever.
Bad: Teaira McCowan had one of the strongest rookie seasons last year, ranking second in the league in rebounding, fifth in field goal percentage, and 10th in blocks per game. Many expected McCowan to take huge strides in her second year, but her playing time was inconsistent. Aside from a dip in rebounds (from 9.0 to 7.3 per game), McCowan’s numbers were mostly the same in 2020, although her shooting did improve, but she found herself in and out of the starting lineup and didn’t have much chance to develop her defensive game. If she’s a longterm part of Indiana’s future, she’ll need some more leeway from head coach Marianne Stanley to develop a rhythm on the court, as opposed to being pulled whenever she makes a mistake on defense.
12. New York Liberty (2-20)
Last week’s ranking: 12
Points: 114
Good: The Liberty were not good this year, but that was to be expected. Fans got a glimmer of what Sabrina Ionescu could do on the court in a professional game, but will have to wait until 2021 to witness the full effect. However, that doesn’t mean there weren’t any bright spots for the team. The Liberty improved their rebounding and ranked second in the league in total rebounds per game and defensive rebounds per game on the strength of Amanda Zahui B. She led the team with 8.5 rebounds per game, and was followed by Kiah Stokes, who the Liberty already extended for 2021, with 6.7.
Bad: The Liberty were the worst shooting team in the league. The team ranked last in field goals made and attempted per game, but led the league with an average of 27.4 attempts from behind the arc. The team’s not making many of those three-point attempts – they averaged 7.6 made threes per game – but head coach Walt Hopkins has had plenty of time to implement his system and evaluate who could be a contributing factor on next year’s roster.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.