WNBA Season Player Props: Best Bets
Finding the value on PrizePicks in player season average props
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
As the women’s basketball betting space continues to expand, more and more markets are being offered for bettors even before the season begins. This year, PrizePicks has given us several lines for players’ season averages in points, rebounds, assists, and threes.
On that note, let’s take a look at some of the best picks on the board.
DeWanna Bonner under 16.0 points
DeWanna Bonner is one of the league’s better scorers of the last decade, but there’s no question that her prime years are behind her. The Connecticut star will be 36 before the season ends, and she’s coming off of a 2022 season in which she averaged 13.5 points.
While there will be some added usage to go around without Courtney Williams and Jonquel Jones in the mix, Sun addition Tiffany Hayes should soak up her fair share of that. And even if Bonner does see an uptick in volume, it shouldn’t be enough to make up an extra 2.5 points at this stage in her career.
Alyssa Thomas over 5.0 assists
Alyssa Thomas never reached this number during her first eight years in the league, and her career average is just 3.5. But last season after Sun point guard Jasmine Thomas went down with a season-ending injury in the first month, AT took on more ball handling responsibilities and finished with an assist average north of 6.0. In fact, over the last five seasons, Alyssa has averaged 6.3 assists per 100 possessions with Jasmine on the court and 9.2 with Jasmine on the bench (per pbpstats.com).
With Jasmine now in Los Angeles, expect more of the same from Alyssa this season. Factor in the same assists per 100 stats with the departed Jonquel Jones (from 7.3 with Jones to 8.4 without her) and starting lineup replacement Brionna Jones (6.9 without, 8.9 with) and you have the icing on the cake here.
Jewell Loyd over 17.5 points
Jewell Loyd averaged 16.3 points per game last season, so PrizePicks does seem to understand that she’ll see a usage boost without Breanna Stewart. How big of a usage boost? That’s where this line falls short. According to pbpstats.com, Loyd’s scoring has gone up by nearly eight points per 100 possessions when Stewart has been off the floor during their seven seasons together, and Loyd’s usage in those minutes has skyrocketed from 24.7% to 31.7%.
Only 12 times in league history has a player had a usage rate that high in at least 25 minutes per game (a number Loyd has reached in all eight of her seasons). The only one of the 12 to fall short of 19 points per game was Chamique Holdsclaw, who averaged 16.8 in 2001. There’s no reason to believe Loyd won’t see all the volume she can handle this year, and she may even top 20 points per game.
Teaira McCowan over 10.5 points
Take a quick look at Teaira McCowan’s career numbers, and this might seem like a good line – the center has averaged between 10.0 and 11.3 points per game in every year of her WNBA career. With a little more context, however, this over is a must.
McCowan has reached at least 10.9 in each of the last three seasons, and that’s even been with plenty of ups and downs in playing time. Last season, most notably, she started the year as a borderline rotational afterthought and didn’t enter the regular starting lineup until mid-July. Once she took that role, her numbers exploded. She scored at least 14 points in 10 of her last 11 games, averaging 17.7 over that stretch.
With Isabelle Harrison out of the picture, the starting spot should be McCowan’s once more, and if Dallas’ preseason rotations are any indication, she’ll get plenty of run and usage once again. Her over 8.5 rebounds is a decent bet as well, but points is the safer option. Especially because … apparently she hits threes now?
Kahleah Copper over 15.5 points or over 1.0 threes
Our last bet is probably the most risky, but it’s still worth hitting for similar reasons as Loyd. After losing nearly its entire championship core, including Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, and Candace Parker, Chicago is ready to hand the keys to Kahleah Copper this season. Copper slightly cleared both of these numbers last year even with the other stars in the fold (15.7 and 1.2), so she should see enough volume to do so again.
The risky part of this bet is that the Sky brought in several players who aren’t shy about pulling the trigger. Courtney Williams and Marina Mabrey will both take plenty of shots on the wings, and Isabelle Harrison should be eager to take advantage of her starting role after being replaced in Dallas.
Nonetheless, none of those players should be enough to cause Copper’s counting stats to regress, so her scoring overs still have plenty of value.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
GREAT STUFF AS ALWAYS !