Breaking Down the Deal: Jonquel Jones heads to New York
We examine the three-way trade that sent an MVP to the Liberty and provided an explosive opening to the 2023 WNBA offseason
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The first big domino of the 2023 WNBA offseason fell yesterday when a three-way trade between New York, Connecticut and Dallas was finally completed. The highlight was 2021 MVP Jonquel Jones being moved to New York, but a total of six players (plus a first-round draft pick) switched places in the deal. We take a look at what it means from each team’s perspective, and whether this is a positive move for their future outlooks.
New York Liberty
This is a swing the Liberty absolutely had to take once it was available. Jonquel Jones is a two-way superstar who's been in multiple MVP conversations, won one, and only just turned 29 years old. Players like that don't become available very often. You pull the trigger every damn time.
However, there are elements of risk. The Liberty are a young team who spent the last couple of years trying to build chemistry with Natasha Howard as the primary post in that scheme. Rebecca Allen was a significant part of that group as well, and when they found themselves desperate for a ball-handler alongside Sabrina Ionescu last year, Crystal Dangerfield proved a useful answer. They've blown up a meaningful part of their roster in this move, along with giving up a potentially useful player on a four-year cheap contract in the No. 6 pick.
Jones also comes with a few unknowns along with her outstanding talent. There's only one year left on her contract and she can't be cored again, so she could walk away for nothing at the end of 2023 (although if she asked to go to New York, as reported, that risk is lessened). She has a Bosnian passport, which means she might miss time to represent her adopted country, and that European passport increases her earning power in European club basketball. Especially with the WNBA Prioritization rules fully kicking in next year - barring a rule change, veteran players have to arrive in time for training camp or they can't play in the WNBA that year - there's a chance that she takes the money overseas and doesn't play in the WNBA at all after this season. Most players peak around 27, so there's also the chance that New York hand out her next big contract and then end up paying for the years where she's declining somewhat rather than the genuine superstar of recent years.
But oh, the positives. Jones is an exceptional offensive weapon, capable of scoring inside and out, rolling to the rim after setting screens or popping out to shoot threes with good accuracy. That versatility means she can play alongside another true big (like Brionna Jones in Connecticut, or potentially Stefanie Dolson in New York), or as the center next to a more mobile four (like, just by way of random example, Breanna Stewart). She's also been an excellent defender and rebounder for Connecticut in recent years, so you're not just paying for offense here.
There are positives to this deal for New York even beyond Jones. Kayla Thornton had one of the best seasons of her career in Dallas last year, can play either forward spot effectively and does everything outside of shooting threes at least as well as Allen. She's exactly the sort of role player you want on a team built around stars. The Liberty also come out of this deal somehow saving money - particularly important when there might be some big additions you're still trying to make. Jones makes $16,750 less than Howard this season, and Thornton makes $27,134 less than Allen. So that's nearly $44k to add to the $382,915 in cap space that they had to fill out the final three spots on their roster. If we assume one of those spots goes to last year's first-rounder Nyara Sabally, they'd currently have $355,499 left in space, with nine players under contract. That's not enough for two max deals (the standard max is $202,154), but it's not a million miles away. It's certainly enough for one and another useful role player, or to hand Marine Johannès and/or Han Xu more than the minimum to encourage them to show up this year. Jones is also two years younger than Howard, so as long as they do retain her long-term she's closer to Sabrina Ionescu's timeframe for winning titles. Jones has also played successfully with both Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot overseas, two stars who just happen to be unrestricted free agents.
You can argue over the smaller details, but it's a move you make every day of the week if you're New York. Upgrade your current core big from fringe all-star to genuine star for relatively minimal cost and figure out the rest afterward (with a helpfully increased amount of cap space to work with).
Connecticut Sun
Whenever a huge deal like this happens in the WNBA, even if we don't hear confirmation from the teams, players, or even 'sources', you can generally bet that the star player asked out. Frequently, they had a very short list of teams they were willing to go to. In Jonquel Jones's case, given her star-level of performance in recent years and European passport, there's also more potential reality in a "well I'll just skip the WNBA and play overseas" threat than when some other players have made similar hints. It puts the existing team in a very difficult negotiating position trying to get value for their star.
All of that is by way of offering Connecticut some defense for this deal, because purely based on the playing talent moving around, this is a disaster. Rebecca Allen is a decent complementary wing who can hit threes, something the new Sun hierarchy have talked about wanting to add more to their game. But she's a 30-year-old role player earning nearly $137,000 guaranteed, for a team that already has cap issues. I thought Tyasha Harris showed signs of development last year and would be worth a gamble for someone if Dallas wanted to dump her. But that doesn't negate the fact that her numbers remained unimpressive, and she was glued behind both Marina Mabrey and limited rookie Veronica Burton in Dallas's rotation last year. To get just Allen, Harris and a mid-first rounder in an average draft class for an under-30 superstar is the proverbial pu pu platter. Three quarters for a dollar would be generous.
Adding Harris immediately suggested that more moves were coming in Connecticut, and the next step followed quickly with Jasmine Thomas being traded to Los Angeles for three backups. The Sun even had to throw in the No. 10 pick, presumably because Thomas’s $190,000 contract wasn’t particularly desirable coming off an ACL injury. They still have another decision to make at point guard with restricted free agent Natisha Hiedeman. The new regime in Connecticut is already putting a significant stamp on their roster this offseason.
The important side-benefit of the Jonquel Jones deal to Connecticut - a central part of how they'll be justifying it to themselves - is that it should allow them to retain Brionna Jones. Jonquel Jones counted as Connecticut's core player due to the deal she signed last year, but that spot reopens once she's traded away. The Sun also didn't have enough cap space for the core qualifying offer (one-year guaranteed at the supermax of $234,936), but the trades also open up the necessary room to fit in that offer to their remaining Jones. That's why this deal is happening so early. January 20 is the deadline to core players, so for Connecticut's purposes they couldn't wait to see if anything better might open up later in free agency. Brionna Jones would've become a true unrestricted free agent and would've had multiple suitors willing to hand her a lot of money. She doesn't have the range of Jonquel or the same space-eating length, but Brionna has been very, very good for the last three years. If they have to pay her the supermax to stick around (the two sides could still negotiate a longer deal at a different price) it'll be a slight overpay but not by that much. Several teams would've paid her the regular max and not thought twice about it.
Being able to keep Brionna Jones matters. It's a meaningful part of this trade from Connecticut's perspective. However, regardless of the side benefits, it's a trade where they've given up a player who was in the MVP conversation the last two seasons. You want more than a couple of role players and a hopeful draft pick for that kind of piece.
Dallas Wings
The Wings added talent here. While I love Kayla Thornton's gritty all-purpose game, Natasha Howard is the kind of talented, reliable big the Wings have wanted for a long time. While they have a new head coach who might've given Harris another chance, the Wings signaled that they'd pretty much given up on her when they drafted Burton last year. So that's probably seen as no great loss inside their offices. Dangerfield's rights give them insurance at the point alongside Burton if they ultimately lose Marina Mabrey.
The implications and the money are where this deal gets particularly interesting on the Dallas side. Howard's being paid pretty close to the supermax for the next two years. They removed Harris's guaranteed fourth-year money, which makes cap maneuvering easier, but ultimately if they keep Dangerfield that's less than a $10,000 saving. Howard-in, Thornton-out adds $118,184 to their cap sheet this year. That's a lot for a team that only had $363,696 to retain two key restricted free agents in Marina Mabrey and Teaira McCowan (admittedly more like $420,000-440,000 if they were willing to cut/trade someone and go with an 11-player roster). The other shoe to drop is the anticipated Allisha Gray trade that would wipe $169,600 off their books, but obviously could bring salary back the other way. Are Dangerfield/Howard respectively anticipating the possible loss of Mabrey/McCowan, or do they want all these pieces to play together?
Howard/McCowan could work. Howard's sometimes seemed more effective as a mobile five than a four, but she spent the vast majority of last season playing next to either Stefanie Dolson or Han Xu. Her three-point shot has developed enough that she can stretch the floor a little, and between them they could be a monster on the glass. It might mean Satou Sabally becoming more predominantly a wing than the stretch-four they've often tried to use her as, especially if they lose Gray without getting a perimeter player back (or adding one in free agency). Sabally can certainly do that (if she can ever stay healthy), and it would give them the flexibility to go big or small as the situation dictates. If McCowan were to leave, Howard probably becomes the starting center and they build around length and mobility inside rather than the bulk and physicality of McCowan.
The perimeter is even more complicated. Gray likely on her way out leaves a hole. Mabrey, while she likes to be on the ball, isn't really a point guard - but she kind of has to be if you're going to pay her a lot of money to be on a team alongside Arike Ogunbowale. Then you've just given up Thornton, who was a capable fallback option at the three if you didn't need her at the four. Then we're down to Burton, Dangerfield, and maybe Jasmine Dickey. It's a group that needs help, especially if you don't want to invest in a Mabrey/Ogunbowale backcourt long-term (or Mabrey tells you she doesn't want to stay). There could be more deals to come here, even beyond the anticipated Gray trade, and at every stage you have to pay attention to the cap maths as well as the pure playing talent.
Overall, it's a worthwhile move for Dallas, as long as they know what they're doing with the moves that follow. Adding all that money, both this year and next, could be an awkward complicating factor. However, as long as they have a good idea of what's happening with Gray, McCowan and Mabrey then they may well be fine. Generally speaking, they added more talent than they gave up, which is a good place to start in most trades.
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Great stuff, as always.
The saving money part of this for the Liberty surprised me. If they add Stewart+ from here…wow.