HHS Podcast NCAA Women's Basketball Roundtable Preview
Our panel gives their takes on some of this season's biggest questions
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COLLEGE BASKETBALL IS ALMOST HERE! Ahead of tip-off on November 7, the Her Hoop Stats podcast team has been previewing the season on our YouTube channel and podcast feed. Courtside with Christy Winters-Scott and Gabe Ibrahim has looked at the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 so far. Unplugged with Megan Gauer and frequent guest host Calvin Wetzel prognosticated the entire college basketball landscape. They focused on All-Americans and under/overrated teams in part one and made Final Four picks in part two. Dice It Up with Dano Mataya and Ice Young recently caught up with Florida State coach Brooke Wyckoff and will be looking at the Big East soon.
We’ll be talking college hoops all season on the HHS Podcast Network, so come hang out with us in our live streams and give your takes in the comments! But first, three of our podcast hosts got together to answer some burning questions about the upcoming season.
Which team has the best chance of beating defending champion South Carolina?
Calvin Wetzel: Stanford
To me, the boring answer is the correct answer. The Cardinal went into South Carolina a year ago and nearly came away with an upset, falling 65-61 after leading by 14 at halftime. Both teams will be a little different this year to be sure. Players like Destanni Henderson, Anna Wilson, and the Hull twins are gone. But Stanford should be as well equipped as anyone to hang with the Gamecocks again this season.
If No. 1 recruit Lauren Betts can adjust to this level quickly, she and Cameron Brink will give Tara VanDerveer two formidable bigs to match up with Dawn Staley’s frontcourt. No one will be favored over South Carolina this season, but Stanford will come as close as anyone on November 20.
Megan Gauer: Tennessee
I’m going with the Gamecocks’ biggest challenger in the SEC. The Vols are one of the few teams in the country that are going to have the length to match up with South Carolina. Given the way both these teams play, a meeting between these two squads is poised to be a grind-it-out, physical and defensive-focused contest. That type of game lends itself to closer margins and keeping things interesting.
Additionally, Tennessee has vastly increased its offensive firepower through transfer portal acquisitions, which include Mississippi State’s Rickea Jackson and Missouri State’s Jasmine Franklin. Both were averaging over 15 points per game last season before their respective injuries. If the Vols can bring the defensive presence they had last season combined with a newfound potency on offense, they could be a threat.
Gabe Ibrahim: Louisville
The Cardinals got blown out by South Carolina in the Final Four last year and lost four rotation players. But they should still be a title challenger if Hailey Van Lith takes the leap into the elite of college basketball. She finished last year with four 20+ point performances in the NCAA tournament and will have the ball in her hands even more this season. Right now, she would be the second-best player on the floor against the Gamecocks.
Louisville’s frontcourt rotation could stack up against South Carolina’s frontcourt as well. Olivia Cochran snagged four offensive rebounds in the Final Four game. Florida State transfer Morgan Jones will help with the loss of Emily Engstler. Senior Liz Dixon and 6-foot-5 Utah Valley transfer Josie Williams should fortify the middle. Also, the addition of Chrislyn Carr from Syracuse and the development of Payton Verhulst will help the team be better when HVL sits. I wouldn’t pick them against the Gamecocks, but they’d have a chance.
Which team currently outside the top 10 is most likely to finish in the top 10?
CW: Maryland
A lot has been made of the Terps’ transfer portal departures this offseason, and rightfully so. Ashley Owusu, Angel Reese, and Mimi Collins were integral to Maryland’s success over the last two seasons.
But Maryland brings in plenty of talent as well. Lavender Briggs transfers in from Florida after averaging 15.8 points per game in three seasons for the Gators, including a 23-point performance at South Carolina as a sophomore. Elisa Pinzan joins the team from South Florida. She and Shyanne Sellers should give Maryland a fantastic tandem at the point. Abby Meyers comes over from Princeton, where she earned Honorable Mention AP All-American honors. And, of course, they still have likely WNBA lottery pick Diamond Miller as well. This team has enough to compete in the top 10.
MG: Someone from the Pac-12
I am cheating a bit here, but there’s a handful of teams in the Pac-12 that have the talent to surprise people this season.
Oregon returns Te-Hina Paopao, Endiya Rogers, and Sedona Prince as a solid trio to build off of. Arizona also returns plenty of experience on its roster, including Shaina Pellington and Cate Reese for their fifth year. UCLA’s roster has had high potential throughout the last two seasons, but the team has been riddled with injuries. The Bruins have an intriguing backcourt with Charisma Osborne, Wake Forest transfer Gina Conti, and the No. 2 recruit in the nation Kiki Rice (who’s part of UCLA’s top-ranked recruiting class). I think at least one of the above three teams will exceed expectations.
GI: Virginia Tech
I said all of those nice things about Louisville above. But, I actually picked Virginia Tech to win the conference in the Courtside ACC preview. To put it simply, Louisville has a higher ceiling and a better matchup against South Carolina while Virginia Tech has a greater margin for error in the regular season. ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley is a superstar and has missed only one regular season game in her collegiate career.
Head Coach Kenny Brooks has built one of the nation’s best starting fives on paper around her. Maryland transfer Ashley Owusu joined Kitley on the AP All-American third team last season. Taylor Soule comes over after gobbling up rebounds and defensive stops for Boston College. Georgia Amoore is one of the best point guards in the ACC, maybe the country this year, and Cayla King can shoot the lights out. With sharpshooter Kayana Traylor coming off the bench, the Hokies have a versatile group that can match talent with anyone.
Now the opposite: top 10 team most likely to fall out
CW: Tennessee
Like Maryland, Tennessee brought in plenty of talent via the transfer portal. More than the Terps, in fact: Rickea Jackson, Jasmine Franklin, Jasmine Powell (Minnesota), and Jillian Hollingshead (Georgia). They also still have Jordan Horston, Jordan Walker, and Tamari Key, losing only Rae Burrell and Alexus Dye from the rotation. The difference? Tennessee didn’t end last season as a top 10 team. The Vols finished 15th in the Coaches Poll and 24th in the Her Hoop Stats Rankings.
Kellie Harper absolutely brought in enough to make up for the losses of Burrell and Dye and then some. But their preseason rank in the top five seems like a stretch. That will especially be true early on, as all of the new pieces try to figure out how they fit together. Franklin is coming off of an ACL injury, Hollingshead played just 12.6 minutes per game as a freshman last year at Georgia, and neither Powell nor Jackson are likely to give Tennessee the spacing it needs to reach the top tier.
MG: Iowa
Iowa was 99th in Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating last year. They allowed more points per game than 300 of 356 Division I teams. No disrespect to Caitlin Clark and Monica Czinano, who are one of the most fun duos in the college game to watch right now. But unless something has dramatically changed on the defensive end since last season, I don’t think this is a top-10 Hawkeyes team.
GI: UConn
I feel comfortable predicting that the Huskies will struggle early in the season. The program lost three pillars of the program to the WNBA. Then, Paige Bueckers suffered a season-ending torn ACL that was devastating to all basketball fans. Yes, this team still has a ton of talent. Most teams would love to roll out a lineup of Azzi Fudd, Aaliyah Edwards, Dorka Juhász, Caroline Ducharme, and Nika Mühl.
All of those players would have been in different roles even with Bueckers on the floor and now have a steep learning curve. They’re also a sprained ankle or two from having to rely on their freshmen, who are very talented but unproven. UConn’s hellacious non-conference schedule with games against Texas, (likely) Iowa, and Notre Dame further exacerbates these issues. The Huskies may make it back to the Final Four, but the road there might be bumpy again.
Which player is ready to break out?
CW: Alexis Markowski, Nebraska
Despite losing Sam Haiby to a season-ending injury, Nebraska is ranked No. 22 in the preseason AP Poll. Markowski is a big reason why. Her game is a terrific complement to that of Jaz Shelley, and without Haiby or Bella Cravens (who transferred to TCU), the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Year should be primed for a bigger role as a sophomore.
The 6-foot-2 forward only played 21.5 minutes per game as a freshman, but that number is bound to rise as she gains experience and cuts down on her fouls. Her averages per 40 minutes were staggering last season: 23.7 points and 14.9 rebounds. She also showed an ability to stretch the floor, knocking down 21 of her 42 shots from deep.
The Cornhuskers are on the rise, and Markowski is rising right along with them.
MG: Azzi Fudd, UConn
We barely saw Fudd scrape the surface of what she’s capable of last season after her freshman season was riddled with injuries. Her shooting abilities were evident, with Fudd shooting 43 percent from beyond the arc, but her ability to really take over a game was only seen in flashes.
Now healthy, we should get to see why Fudd was one of the most celebrated No. 1 recruits before her arrival in Storrs. With Paige Bueckers sidelined for the year, the Huskies will look to Fudd to lead this year’s squad - and perhaps need her to take on this role if the Huskies hope to have the type of season their fans are accustomed to.
GI: Haley Cavinder, Miami
The Cavinder twins have already broken out as celebrities. Haley and Hanna have over five million followers across social media. They’re raking in the NIL money and are among the most famous collegiate athletes in the country. However, the first question that comes up every time I mention the Cavinders transferring to Miami is, “Are they actually good at basketball?”
Yes, they are very good at basketball. While Hanna will battle to be Miami’s best off-ball scoring threat, Haley should lead Miami’s offense. Last season at Fresno State, she became the first player in the Her Hoop Stats database to shoot 40% from the field, 35% from three, and 95% from the free throw line at her volume. She’s actually the only player in the HHS era to shoot 97% or better from the line on more than 100 attempts in a season. The ACC is stacked with elite point guards. Haley Cavinder has a chance to put her name into that category this year.
Which draft prospect are you excited about?
CW: Grace Berger, Indiana
Grace Berger elected to use her fifth year of eligibility this season, and it was probably the right call. She’s a Hoosier legend – if she repeats her output from last year, she’ll be the second 2,000-point scorer in Indiana history – but would not have been likely to go in the first round of the 2022 WNBA draft.
If the 2023 draft were to be held today, she probably still wouldn’t be a first-rounder. But she has six months to change that, so whether she can use this season to play her way up the board will be an intriguing storyline to watch.
Berger has shades of another 6-foot guard who played college basketball in the state of Indiana. As talented and athletic as Berger is, she’s not equal in those departments to Jackie Young (few are). But her role and her skill set are reminiscent of the Aces star. We saw how Young’s game took off after she expanded it to beyond the 3-point line this year. If Berger can do that for Indiana, she should catch the attention of some scouts. Her midrange game is strong enough that there’s no doubt she’s capable.
MG: Maddy Siegrist, Villanova
For a player who was second in scoring only to Caitlin Clark last season, Siegrist doesn’t get quite as much fanfare as the other top players in the country. The senior, who averaged 25.3 points per game last season, will be the focal point of what could be a top-25 Villanova squad this season. Watching Siegrist on the offensive end of the floor is appointment viewing, but I am excited to see if she can take a step forward defensively this season to help improve her draft stock come April.
GI: Zia Cooke, South Carolina
Cooke has some work to do in her senior year. After a stellar sophomore campaign, she just couldn’t hit threes as a junior. Her 3-point percentage dropped by a staggering 10.6% from 2020-21. She continued to shoot well from the mid-range but also struggled to finish in the paint.
However, I think 2021-22 will be the worst season of Cooke’s career. It felt almost cruel at times to see so many shots of her shots just rim out. She certainly needs work on her finishing and probably her shooting form (I’m not a shooting coach). But, I think the shooting luck will go more in her favor this season. Combined with everything else she does well, Cooke will jump up draft boards if I’m right.
Which early matchup are you most excited about?
CW: Louisville at Belmont – Sunday, November 13
There are so many to choose from, and even as a mid-major fanatic, there were still several good options. South Dakota State and Princeton each face multiple early tests, for example, and Gonzaga opens the Battle 4 Atlantis against Louisville.
But it’s another Louisville game I’m looking forward to the most. It’s one thing for a tough mid-major to get its shot at a top-10 opponent, but to get that shot in its own building is as exciting as it gets.
Belmont enters the season receiving votes in the AP Poll, while Louisville sits at No. 7. The Curb Event Center should be fired up, and their Bruins have a squad that has a shot at an upset. When you shoot 3s the way Belmont does, you can pick off a lot of teams if you get hot on the right night.
MG: Creighton at South Dakota State – Monday, November 7
Like Calvin said, there are so many good games to pick from. I almost went with Texas at UConn the following Monday, which should be phenomenal. But it’s hard to pass up an opening night top-25 matchup.
This game features last year’s NCAA tournament darlings, the Creighton Bluejays, which stunned the country by reaching the Elite Eight with wins over No. 2 seed Iowa and No. 3 seed Iowa State. They head on the road to face the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, last year’s WNIT champions, who return standout forward Myah Selland. This game should give us a great tip off to the season.
GI: Saturday, November 20th
Megan got to pick an entire conference above, so I think I can pick one day of games. The headliner is No. 1 South Carolina traveling to No. 2 Stanford, in what has become one of the sport’s premier rivalries. The Battle 4 Atlantis starts on this day as well with Louisville-Gonzaga, Tennessee-Rutgers, UCLA-South Dakota State, and Texas-Marquette. No. 6 UConn takes on No. 10 NC State in a rematch of last year’s thrilling Elite Eight matchup. No. 17 Maryland and No. 18 Baylor renew their series as well. Three ranked teams go on the road to face smaller programs. No. 12 UNC goes to James Madison, No. 25 Michigan visits Fairfield, and No. 15 Oklahoma travels to Texas-Arlington. Miami-DePaul and Good Ole Fashioned Hate (Georgia-Georgia Tech) round out an excellent day to sit on your couch and watch basketball.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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