Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Last week, four teams hopped off the plane at MSP with dreams of a title win (my apologies to Miley Cyrus). In the end, consensus No. 1 South Carolina was the team hoisting the national championship trophy amid a sea of fog and confetti. It was the culmination of a week chock-full of great food, confusing TSA guidelines (more on that later), some of the country’s best women’s college basketball players, and passionate fans. Adam Vachon and Aneela Khan touch on all of this as they recap their Final Four experience in Minneapolis.
Besides the actual games, what was your favorite part of the Final Four experience?
Aneela: This was my first Final Four experience, so it was great to see the number of people who love women’s basketball. The state of Minnesota has long provided tremendous support for their local players and teams, and they did the same for the Final Four. I saw Women’s Final Four signage everywhere, and several fans were wearing their gear. If I got lost and needed directions to an event, people would step in and guide me to the right place without needing further details about the Women’s Final Four.
Adam: The food was great; the local attractions (e.g., Can Can Wonderland) were fun, but, like Aneela, seeing the level of passion for women’s basketball made this trip unforgettable. One afternoon at a local Minneapolis restaurant called Hell’s Kitchen (which I highly recommend if you ever find yourself in the Twin Cities), I simultaneously heard conversations about the Final Four matchups, the mutual respect between Geno Auriemma and Tara VanDerveer, and even the WNIT Final Four. Another night at a hotel bar at 1:30 a.m., I listened to a group of journalists discuss the disconnect between women’s basketball viewership and the valuation of TV rights deals. Coming from the Boston area, a city dominated by the men’s professional sports scene, and never having attended a women’s Final Four, witnessing this much enthusiasm for women’s basketball was a completely new and invigorating experience.
OK, let’s turn our attention to the Final Four itself. Aside from dominating the offensive glass, what was the most important factor in South Carolina’s win over UConn?
Aneela: That they came ready and prepared to play. This wasn’t like their SEC tournament final, in which they lost to Kentucky. They threw the first punch and led 11-2 at the 6:37 mark in the first quarter before UConn called a timeout. Any time UConn tried to make a run, South Carolina was able to handle it and respond. When UConn made a run late in the third quarter and only trailed by 6 at the 1:33 mark, South Carolina would make plays to extend its lead. They weren’t rattled and continued to extend the lead even further in the final quarter to seal the victory.
Adam: The Gamecocks’ guard play. Before the national semifinal, Zia Cooke had cracked the 40% field goal percentage threshold just once over a 10-game span. So let’s just say her 4-for-5 start from the field in the national title game was not on my Final Four bingo card. Granted, Cooke hit only one of her last eight shots, but her eight first-quarter points helped key a 17-4 South Carolina run that set the tone for the rest of the game.
It was quite the swan song for Destanni Henderson’s collegiate career, as she dropped a career-high 26 points, only her second 20-plus-point game of the season. That alone would have been impressive, but it was her stifling defense on Paige Bueckers that made this a special performance. Bueckers was just 1-for-5 from the field when covered by Henderson.
Henderson and Cooke combined for 57.4% of South Carolina’s scoring output, the first time all season the duo accounted for more than 50% of the Gamecocks’ offense.
Did the right person win the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player?
Adam: One-hundred percent. I think recency bias might have influenced those in the Destanni Henderson camp. Don’t get me wrong, Henderson had the best performance in the national championship game. Her stellar defense Bueckers combined with a 26-point, four-assist stat line would have earned national title game MOP honors if such an award existed. However, the Final Four MOP accolade encompasses both nights. Henderson averaged 18.5 points, 4.0 assists, and 2.0 steals during Final Four weekend, while Aliyah Boston (the award’s winner) put up 17.0 points, 17.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks per Final Four game. Henderson was outstanding, but no one affected more facets of both games than Boston.
The near impossibility of guarding Boston with the ball on the low block is well-documented, and it was on full display when she dropped 23 points against a stingy Louisville defense. But it was her rebounding, particularly on the offensive end, and perimeter defense that really shined.
Boston grabbed 34 rebounds over the weekend, the third-most in NCAA Final Four history. One of the major storylines from the national championship was South Carolina’s dominance on the offensive glass - Boston helped lead that effort with five offensive boards. UConn’s entire team had six.
The Huskies shot just 9-for-35 (25.7%) on attempts outside the paint; Boston’s lockdown help defense on screens played a key role. Her agility and length made life for UConn’s backcourt uncomfortable Sunday night.
Aneela: I agree that Aliyah Boston was the right winner of this award. As Adam mentioned above, the Most Outstanding Player Award is given to a player who has played well in both games, and she did. Even though she did not take a lot of shots because she was consistently double and triple-teamed by UConn’s posts and guards, she still managed to be very efficient, as she ended up with a double-double of 11 points and 16 rebounds. She also had three assists and two blocks. In South Carolina’s semifinal game against Louisville, she was quickly able to make an impact and was everywhere. She was highly efficient too, with a game-high 23 points on just 12 shots to go along with 18 rebounds and four assists. As Adam also alluded to, she snagged the third-most rebounds in NCAA Final Four history with 34. She was everywhere in this Final Four and was deservedly the correct winner for the MOP.
This next question was inspired by a conversation that Gabe Ibrahim, Megan Gauer, and Aaron Barzilai recently had in their recap of the national title game. Where does this South Carolina squad rank among the past 10 championship teams?
Aneela: I would say No. 7 after UConn’s four straight titles and Baylor’s two championship teams in the 2010s. This team was even better than the first South Carolina championship team because they were the best team in the country all season long. The 2021-22 Gamecocks were ranked No. 1 in the polls all season long and finished No. 1 in the AP and Coaches polls, the NET, RPI, and our Her Hoop Stats rating. They defeated 14 ranked teams and only lost two total games, one by a point in overtime against Missouri and the other by two points versus Kentucky in the SEC championship. The reason I have them as the seventh-best is that I think Baylor’s national championship team in 2018-19 was a bit better. The Bears’ only loss was a five-point setback versus Stanford. They won the Big 12 regular season and conference championships without losing a conference game. In my personal opinion, they were just a notch better.
Adam: I think they’re the best team since 2015-16, so I have them a smidge higher than you. In the context of the past 10 champions, this year’s South Carolina squad is in the middle of the pack. It feels blasphemous to say that anything about this Gamecocks team is “middle of the pack,” but it’s more a reflection of the level of dominance from the 2011-12 Baylor squad that featured Brittney Griner, and the Breanna Stewart-led UConn squads of the mid-2010s. Her Hoop Stats ratings, our predictive metric of team strength that measures a team’s predicted performance on a neutral court against a hypothetical average team, strongly indicate UConn’s four championship teams in the mid-2010s and Baylor’s 2011-12 team are head and shoulders above the rest.
Despite what the HHS ratings suggest, I do have this year’s South Carolina squad slightly ahead of Baylor’s 2018-19 championship team. There were just so many more teams this season capable of competing with the cream of the NCAA crop. In a year with record-high levels of parity among the nation’s top teams (per the graph below), South Carolina went 14-0 against the AP top 25. By comparison, Baylor went 10-1 against the AP top 25 in a year with less parity. There’s something to be said for just how often South Carolina needed to bring its “A” game to remain at the top of the NCAA mountain.
What was the most perplexing or confusing thing you encountered during your time at the Final Four?
Adam: I’ll take this one since there are two things I’ve been dying to bring up. First, there was the following announcement on the jumbotron before the national championship game.
“Sports wagering jeopardizes the well-being of student-athletes and the intercollegiate athletics community.”
I understand discouraging student-athletes from sports wagering. And, to be fair, the website at the end of the message does precisely that. However, one could read it as a warning to the general public, which would be bizarre given sports betting’s potential as an avenue for growth in women’s basketball.
Second, there was this alert from the Final Four app (kudos to our own Cindy Smith for passing this along):
OK, no pun intended, but there’s a lot to unpack there. After reading this, my initial questions were: why would TSA not want fans to include an official game program in their carry-on luggage, and also why is four the magic number for programs allowed in checked baggage? After some sleuthing, I discovered that the answer relates to the difficulty of some airport scanners seeing through the relatively thick Final Four programs.
Now, I don’t want to publicly admit to violating any TSA regulations, so let’s just say hypothetically that TSA didn’t seem too concerned with this at 1:15 p.m. on Monday.
Any final takeaways from your time in Minneapolis?
Aneela: It was excellent. It was terrific to see the women’s basketball community out and about around the Target Center, the Convention Center (Tourney Town), and just around the city. I loved meeting or seeing fellow local and national media members, coaches, agents, WNBA personnel, and the Twitter WBB/WNBA community. I did not love the cold weather, but everything else went smoothly. I enjoyed my experience.
Adam: Completely agree with this, Aneela. Thanks for the memories, Minneapolis. The snowstorm after Sunday night’s game felt like a poorly timed April Fool’s joke, but otherwise, you delivered a fantastic atmosphere for this year’s Final Four.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.