Offseason winners, team tiers and the race for Paige
Matthew Coller writes that he's buying the Lynx and Storm's good starts and looks for answers for a team in the middle
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Every weekend feels like it completely changes the way we feel about the WNBA. Things are becoming more clear now as the season goes along and we can make more definitive statements about the franchises than we could at the beginning of the year. With that said, here are five developments in the first quarter of the season that I’m buying…
The Lynx, Storm and Mercury won the offseason
Last offseason the Storm and Mercury underwent major shake ups by acquiring elite players, while the Lynx filled out their roster with solid quality veterans. Seattle and Phoenix have shot up from the bottom of the league into the middle of the standings and the Lynx have improved from a middling squad to elite.
Seattle went into semi-super team mode by signing Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, while the Mercury acquired the quietest superstar player in the league Kahleah Copper in a trade. Minnesota signed Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman.
Diggins-Smith has shown some rust at times with her shooting hovering below 40% field-goal percentage, but she’s still been aggressive offensively with nearly 14 shots per game. She’s creating for others with 6.0 assists per game, ranking in the top five in the league. Ogwumike has played like an MVP candidate, scoring 17.7 points per game and shooting 59.1% (prior to Sunday’s loss to Minnesota). Outside of the three losses to the stacked Lynx, Seattle has gone 6-1 including convincing wins against Phoenix and Las Vegas. They have gone from a team that was struggling mightily to find itself after the losses of franchise pillars Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird to a team that might be scary if Diggins-Smith gets back to her 2021 mark of 37.0% from 3-point land.
Phoenix has given Copper a chance to play an uptempo offense that fits her high flying style and she has thrived, including hitting a game-winner Friday night against the Lynx. She is scoring at a career-high rate 23.5 points per game – nearly six ponts more per game than her previous high – and doing it while ranking in the 81st percentile of 3-point percentage. Copper was well worth the draft picks sent Chicago’s way for her services.
The Lynx demolished Seattle by 19 points on Sunday. They have built around their MVPhee but they are also the deepest team in the league and have the capability to win games even if Napheesa Collier doesn’t play her best. Smith has brought some defensive edge along with outbursts of scoring while Williams can score off the dribble and Hiedeman is a well above average bench player. Their presence has allowed the Lynx to make up for the loss of Diamond Miller to injury and allowed them to space the floor to shoot more 3-pointers than anyone in the league. Bringing in superstars is always the quickest way to turn around a franchise but getting over the hump by finding the right franchise fits is some impressive team building by Cheryl Reeve and Co.
The league has broken into tiers
Point differential tells the story of the WNBA’s tiers right now. The teams that should be considered clear-cut championship contenders are the Lynx (+10.4 point differential), New York Liberty (+9.9) and Connecticut Sun (+9.1).
After the elite point differential clubs the Las Vegas Aces (+4.5) and Seattle Storm (+4.1) are competitive with the best teams but need improvement if they are going to be considered the best of the best.
The Chicago Sky (-0.8), Atlanta Dream (-1.9), Dallas Wings (-3.3) and Phoenix Mercury (-4.1) are middling teams who are bouncing up and down on a nightly basis.
The Los Angeles Sparks (-6.0), Washington Mystics (-8.9) and Indiana Fever (-11.8) are making a push for better lottery odds.
Can any of them escape their tier?
The Aces still deserve the benefit of the doubt because they lost on Sunday without Jackie Young and are missing superstar Chelsea Gray, but their recent performances suggest their lack of depth may keep them from being as dominant as they were last year even if/when she returns.
Phoenix has an opportunity to jump into the second tier with Brittney Griner back from her early-season injury.
If Dallas gets Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally back they can be much better than their 3-7 start.
The Sparks or Fever could see their young teams come together and land in the third tier.
I’m interested to see if the Sun can stay at the top. They are only seventh in points per game and eight of their nine wins are against teams in the third or fourth tier.
This caught my eye on Twitter/X: Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post wrote: “Parity in WNBA historically low since expansion of 2008. Standard deviation of win% is .265, which would be highest since 2016 through first 10 games of the season. My rankings have top two teams (NYL, SEA) at +10ish and bottom three teams (IND, LAS, WSH) at -8ish.”
Kayla McBride’s hot start is for real
Is it likely that McBride will continue to shoot around 50% from 3-point territory? No. But her surge as the Lynx’s scariest scorer lately has been incredible. Before Sunday’s game she was already averaging 16.6 points per game, her most since 2018 and shooting in the 94th percentile in effective field- goal percentage, the best of her career. And then she went bananas on the Storm, hitting seven 3-pointers and racking up 32 points.
The reason McBride should be able to keep up a high pace of production, aside from the fact she has always been a sniper, is that the Lynx revamped their identity this year to spread the floor and focus on getting shooters space to fire away from beyond the arc. How about this for a crazy stat: The last time Maya Moore was on the floor for the Lynx in 2018 they attempted 15.4 3-point shots per game. This year they are firing up 26.7 per game (fourth in the WNBA prior to Sunday).
Having a more gifted backcourt than previous seasons also helps McBride. They are moving the ball brilliantly, including putting up 25 assists on 27 field goals in Sunday’s win. The Lynx entered the game already leading the league by far in assists per game.
The Atlanta Dream need to make a splash to escape the middle
Right now the Dream are vanilla ice cream or a 67-degree partly cloudy day. They are hotel art. They are slightly more exciting than a Ferris wheel. A smidge more compelling than an instructional video.
While the Dream are one game over .500, they are 10th in the WNBA in scoring and eighth in points allowed. Without any changes they have a one-way ticket to first-round-outville. Outside of the Tina Charles redemption story, the core players have remained the same, which also includes former top pick Rhyne Howard still struggling to find efficiency in the WNBA. She’s shooting 39.1% and rates in the 43rd percentile in effective field- goal percentage. Howard’s 3-point percentage is likely to rise as the season goes along, but since there hasn’t been improvement in her overall efficiency it would be delusional to believe the light will finally come on.
They simply need more talent in order to become a contender. Haley Jones is starting and playing nearly 20 minutes per game but only producing 4.1 points per game and 3.1 assists. Crystal Dangerfield is only adding 3.3 points per game and shooting 34.4%.
Still, competitiveness for the Dream doesn’t seem that far away with Allisha Gray’s efficient scoring and Howard’s ability to ride hot streaks. Where can they get more talent?
If they wanted to get themselves into the second tier, even veterans like Layshia Clarendon or Myisha Hines-Allen or Erica Wheeler could give them a boost.
In order to really become a contender they would need to land a player like Kelsey Mitchell or Dearica Hamby to get over the hump. Would Washington consider dealing Ariel Atkins as they fully rebuild? Would Chicago think about moving Marina Mabrey?
In the past we haven’t seen teams do major talent dumps at the trade deadline but this year might be different as the seas part in the standings.
On paper L.A. is a better landing spot for Bueckers than Washington
The race for Paige Bueckers is on in the W. Two teams that could end up with high odds for her services are the Sparks and Mystics. While there may be some franchise improvements for Los Angeles to make, they have the foundation of a team that looks like it could make a massive leap forward around top draft picks Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson. Quality young-ish players like Aari McDonald and Li Yueru are likely to be there going forward as well.
It’s harder to see the path for the Mystics. Elena Delle Donne’s future is unclear and it’s hard to say whether Shakira Austin will take another step forward. It’s been a decent start for Aaliyah Edwards but she might have a limited ceiling because her shooting does not extend past the paint. Brittney Sykes had a good season in 2023 but she’s 30 years old and is only a 30.3% career 3-point shooter. The rest is just spare parts.
Indiana would be the strangest fit. They have all the makings of an Aces-like blow up around all the top picks but Bueckers and Caitlin Clark are both players that would need the ball in their hands all the time. Already we are seeing Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston struggle to get the same offensive opportunities as last year. Or maybe it would be a dream combination with Bueckers’ passing and Clark’s shooting.
How the WNBA chooses to put together the lottery with expansion on the way is another question in itself. Bueckers could also choose to stay another year after this season because she still has the extra COVID year and had a medical redshirt season. It’s possible her decision will factor which franchise ends up with the top pick. That pick may shape the future of the league. No big deal or anything.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts! Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Mystics have 2 1sts. If they get the 1st pick plus Atlanta's pick, that can be Paige, maybe Citron and Azi in the 2nd. That is a solid foundation.
Pg- Paige, Vanloo
Sg-Atkins, Azi
Sf- Karlie, Citron
Pf- Edwards, maybe an Ejim
C-Shakira, Dolson
Trade Sykes
No mention of Cloud going to the Mercury and the impact she has had.... Leading the league in assists.