What might the Golden State expansion draft look like?
Using the old expansion rules, we attempt to mock the expansion draft that will take place in December
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Well, All-Star weekend was certainly a grand time, wasn’t it? The reverse jinx worked again for Arike Ogunbowale. Last week I wrote about her struggles with shooting efficiency and she went berserk against Team USA en route to winning All-Star MVP. Maybe there will be more where that comes from in the second half of the season.
Since I can’t reverse jinx anyone this week considering the WNBA is off for the Olympic break, I figured we could focus on something else that stood out from All-Star weekend. Commissioner Cathy Engelbert mentioned in her press conference that the league is set to hold an expansion draft for the Golden State Valkyries in December. Very curious about what that might look like, I put together a mock expansion draft using the 2008 rules that were laid out in this article by Cassandra Negley of Yahoo! Sports.
Here are the rules: Each team gets to protect six players. Golden State is allowed to select one player from each team and they can use the core designation on one free agent who is left available.
Here’s what I came up with:
New York Liberty
Protect:
Sabrina Ionescu
Breanna Stewart
Jonquel Jones
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
Nyara Sabally
Leonie Fiebich
Pick: Kayla Thornton
Analysis: One thing that is hard to know is whether Courtney Vandersloot is going to keep playing after this season. If she plans on continuing her career then the Liberty could choose to protect her or she would become the favorite for Golden State to select as a free agent and use the core designation.
If Vandersloot retires, then the choice comes down to Thornton, Fiebich and Sabally. Thornton is a very good fit with the Liberty as a rotational bruiser and 3-point threat, but Fiebich is 24 years old and is shooting 38.3% from 3-point land on 81 attempts this season. She could be a longer-term player for the organization. Sabally hasn’t broken out yet, but her small sample size stats are solid and she is the No. 5 overall pick from just two years ago.
From Golden State’s perspective, a hard-nosed veteran who offers some 3-point shooting would be a quality piece to start with.
Connecticut Sun
Protect:
Alyssa Thomas
Marina Mabrey
Tyasha Harris
DiJonai Carrington
Olivia Nelson-Ododa
Veronica Burton
*Bonner and Jones have been cored twice and can’t be cored again so they presumably do not have to be protected.
Pick: No pick
Analysis: With Bonner and Jones protected automatically and the Sun using their other six spots on players under contract or players they could plan to extend, there is no one left for Golden State to pick from that they would use the core designation on. The Sun’s other unrestricted free agents (UFA) are Tiffany Mitchell and Astou Ndour-Fall.
Minnesota Lynx
Protect:
Napheesa Collier
Diamond Miller
Alanna Smith
Kayla McBride
Bridget Carleton
Dorka Juhász
Pick: Courtney Williams
Analysis: This one was very difficult. Would the Lynx prefer to protect Williams or young center Dorka Juhász? It stands to reason that the Lynx could get salary cap relief and an opportunity to take a big swing in free agency if Golden State took Williams off their hands. While she has been a quality piece and a good fit with the organization, she is 30 years old and the third highest paid player on the team. Juhász’s size and defensive ability aren’t easy to find and she can continue to develop her shooting. Another player The Valkyries could be interested in is Cecilia Zandalasini. She is a sharpshooter who can score off the dribble and might have starting potential.
Seattle Storm
Protect:
Skylar Diggins-Smith
Jordan Horston
Jewell Loyd
Ezi Magbegor
Mercedes Russell
Nika Mühl
*Nneka Ogwumike can’t be cored.
Pick: No pick
Analysis: Similar to the Sun, because Ogwumike is likely to get automatic protection due to being cored twice already, there isn’t a player under contract who would end up unprotected in this scenario. Golden State wouldn’t be expected to use their one UFA core selection on Storm UFA Joyner Holmes.
Las Vegas Aces
Protect:
A’ja Wilson
Jackie Young
Kelsey Plum
Chelsea Gray
Kiah Stokes
Kate Martin
Pick: Kierstan Bell
Analysis: It doesn’t take any effort at all to pick the first four players, but after that it gets tricky. Stokes could be a salary dump nominee for a team that has struggled with depth, though she has been part of the starting lineup through their championship seasons. That leaves a debate between Martin and Bell. The higher upside probably belongs to Bell, while the years on Martin’s cheap contract and trust of Becky Hammon would seem to give the former Iowa standout an edge.
The Valkyries should have their eye on anyone with potential. Bell was a dynamic scorer in college and has occasionally flashed with the Aces. She simply hasn’t been able to crack one of the league’s best lineups under a coach who strongly favors playing the starters.
Phoenix Mercury
Protect:
Natasha Cloud
Sophie Cunningham
Kahleah Copper
Natasha Mack
Rebecca Allen
Mikiah Herbert Harrigan
*Brittney Griner can’t be cored
*Diana Taurasi may retire
Pick: Charisma Osborne
Analysis: If Taurasi retires then the decision for the Mercury would come down to Herbert Harrigan and Osborne. Neither has appeared to be an impact player, though Herbert Harrigan has appeared in 18 games and might have upside as a former top draft pick. Her career is still getting going after she missed time to give birth. If Taurasi does not retire then Herbert Harrigan would have a better chance to be selected. They could also consider making Allen available to create cap space.
Where it might get very interesting is if Cunningham made it known that she wasn’t going to re-sign with the Mercury. She would be a good choice for the Valks to use the core designation on if that were to happen.
Osborne is a good athlete but would have to fight for a job on Golden State’s roster.
Indiana Fever
Protect:
Caitlin Clark
Aliyah Boston
NaLyssa Smith
Kelsey Mitchell
Grace Berger
Lexie Hull
Pick: Kristy Wallace
Analysis: Unlike most teams, the Fever would have a few options here. They could choose to keep the proven veteran Wallace on a young team and let Hull become available after she has struggled over her first few seasons in the league. Indiana could also protect veterans Damiris Dantas or Temi Fagbenle.
For the Valks, Wallace seems like a reasonable choice because backcourt players are hard to find and Wallace has a career 36.9% 3-point percentage.
Chicago Sky
Protect:
Angel Reese
Chennedy Carter
Kamilla Cardoso
Rachel Banham
Michaela Onyenwere
Lindsay Allen
Pick: Dana Evans
Analysis: The former Louisville star hasn’t been able to catch on as a shooter in the WNBA, making only 32.9% of her career 3-point shots. Her minutes have fallen off significantly since the beginning of the season and she doesn’t appear to fit the Sky’s playing style. Because she is skilled and just 25 years old, Golden State might see her as a potential scoring option.
Another option for Golden State in this scenario would be taking Moriah Jefferson, a proven veteran journeyman who could run the point.
Atlanta Dream
Protect:
Rhyne Howard
Allisha Gray
Haley Jones
Jordin Canada
Naz Hillmon
Laeticia Amihere
Pick: Nia Coffey
Analysis: While Amihere hasn’t been productive yet, the Dream might use the expansion draft with hopes that they can move some salary cap space off the books to make room for as much free agent spending as possible. They haven’t been able to put a strong supporting cast around Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray and they will need all the ammo they can get in order to do so (especially since they are giving up their first-round pick to Washington). Otherwise it would make more sense to keep Coffey.
Mostly a starter over the last four seasons, Coffey can offer some outside shooting (37.6% career 3-point percentage) and rebounding. The Valkyries could also core UFA Cheyenne Parker-Tyus with this selection. Her numbers are down this year with Tina Charles in town but last year she averaged 15.0 points per game and 6.7 rebounds.
Los Angeles Sparks
Protect:
Dearica Hamby
Cameron Brink
Rickea Jackson
Ari McDonald
Yueru Li
Azura Stevens
Pick: Rae Burrell
Analysis: Lexie Brown would be on the Sparks’ protected list if not for concerns with her health. She has only played more than 20 games in a season once since 2019. Burrell does not have strong numbers at just 4.4 points per game in 12.8 minutes, but she does show occasional flashes when she gets opportunities. Is the Valkyries’ approach going to be taking swings at players who might be something someday or will they try to get as many veterans as possible to compete right away?
In a league where underutilized players seem to routinely pop when given opportunities, it stands to reason that they should be aiming for less proven players. They should be aiming to find diamonds in the rough and build something long term rather than hoping to keep afloat in the first year or two.
Washington Mystics
Protect:
Elena Delle Donne
Ariel Atkins
Shakira Austin
Aaliyah Edwards
Brittney Sykes
Jade Melbourne
Pick: Myisha Hines-Allen (core UFA)
Analysis: Is Elena Delle Donne going to play again? Only she knows. However, if she is coming back then it’s probable that she would only return to Washington so she can remain close to home. That means that Washington would need to protect her and leave someone with value unprotected. Melbourne is only 21 years old and Hines-Allen is an expensive veteran who is only averaging 8.0 points per game.
Hines-Allen is also a tough rebounder and defender with enough offensive upside to give Golden State some scoring. Back in 2020 she averaged 17.0 points per game and made 42.6% of her 3-point attempts.
Dallas Wings
Protect:
Arike Ogunbowale
Satou Sabally
Maddy Siegrist
Teaira McCowan
Jacy Sheldon
Stephanie Soares
*Howard can’t be cored.
Pick: Kalani Brown
Analysis: Brown has been a good story for the Wings but a rebuilding team should focus on trying to keep its young players, which would mean protecting either Soares or Lou Lopez-Senechal rather than a veteran who gives them 6.0 points per game.
Brown would give Golden State an instant presence inside and she might have more in the tank than the 13.5 minutes per game she’s been playing for Dallas behind McCowan.
Complete list of Golden State picks:
Kayla Thornton, Courtney Williams, Kierstan Bell, Kristy Wallace, Dana Evans, Charisma Osborne, Nia Coffey, Rae Burrell, Myisha Hines-Allen, Kalani Brown
Takeaways:
– This exercise was done with one set of rules that was used in the past. There are absolutely no guarantees that the WNBA chooses these rules again. They could go with five players from each team or force teams to use protected spots on draft picks or change the UFA rules altogether. Nobody seems to have any hints about that. Maybe they will get creative, maybe not.
– In this simulation, Golden State came away with a mix of veteran players who have been useful in their roles over the years and a couple younger players whom they might be able to develop into something. It’s a good start. They would need to sign a couple free agents and nail their draft but it would feel like a team that could play competitive basketball from the start.
– Will teams try to protect their best players to play win-now ball or will they use the expansion draft to try to move on from expensive salaries? If teams like the Liberty, Lynx and Mystics choose to grip onto every bit of veteran talent, then the Valkyries won’t have much of a chance to throw together a competitive roster. Rather they might only take a limited number of these players and then do battle in a competitive free agent market.
– This entire thing is going to lay the groundwork for a lot of expansion in years to come. The rules and execution will either be used for more teams going forward or the rules will be tweaked and changed based on what works and doesn’t work. One thing we can be sure about: It’s going to be interesting as heck to follow.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Will be (possibly a little shitshow but) fun!
Free agents don't have to be protected, so there are a lot of players that will be in limbo. I think Connecticut has seven or eight free agents next year, so they don't even have enough players to protect.