2023-24 WNBA Offseason Guides: Atlanta Dream
Our team-by-team primers for the upcoming WNBA offseason continue with the Atlanta Dream
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Previously published 2023-24 Offseason Guides:
Seattle Storm
Phoenix Mercury
Indiana Fever
Los Angeles Sparks
Chicago Sky
Washington Mystics
2023 record: 19-21, eliminated 2-0 in first round by Dallas
2024 draft picks: The Dream have all of their own 2024 picks, including a first-rounder that will be No. 8 overall.
Free agents: Danielle Robinson (UFA), Monique Billings (UFA), Nia Coffey (UFA), AD Durr (RFA)
Under contract: Cheyenne Parker, Allisha Gray, Aari McDonald, Rhyne Howard, Iliana Rupert, Haley Jones, Laeticia Amihere, Naz Hillmon
2023 performance: Back in 2022, I wrote about how the Dream had maintained their flexibility for the future by largely packing their roster with youth and one-year deals, so they could dive into free agency once a foundation had begun being built. Ultimately they didn't make much of a splash in free agency before the 2023 season, but they did make a big trade for Allisha Gray, adding a key piece to their core (and a significant contract to their books). The rest of their money was spent on re-signing their own players, but they also inked important extensions for Gray and Cheyenne Parker. The Dream then embarked on what was ultimately another season of building and relative growth. They flirted with .500, sent three players to the All-Star Game, established Gray and Rhyne Howard as one of the most dangerous young wing pairings in the league, and made the playoffs for the first time since Angel McCoughtry was their primary weapon.
Tanisha Wright seems like a good young leader for this squad (although possibly the kind of taskmaster that might wear on a squad long-term). There were obvious signs of progress from a franchise that was floundering before new ownership came in and Wright and general manager Dan Padover were hired before the 2022 season. However, there are still clearly steps that need to come. Their first-round playoff exit to Dallas made them look a significant step away from the top tier of teams that even the Wings themselves are still trying to crack their way into. The Dream have those three all-stars and then a lot of nice pieces which can help a rotation but aren't taking you forward into genuine contention. So shopping for additional pieces via one means or another remains a priority to take this team forward.
Offseason finances: The extensions for Gray and Parker mean that at least the Dream don't have to worry about losing any of their all-stars in the offseason. The remaining players under contract are all at some stage of their rookie scale deal, so none is particularly expensive. That means that if all eight were retained, they would cost a total of only $846,221, leaving $616,979 in cap space for the remaining three or four spots. With the regular max at $208,219 next year, that's very nearly three max spots. Of course, that's before considering their own free agents like Nia Coffey, Monique Billings and Danielle Robinson, all of whom they may well have interest in bringing back, but there is once again a huge amount of money to spend in Atlanta if they can find the right people to spend it on.
Offseason priorities: In terms of cemented pieces, the Dream have two wings and a big. There are other players with potential, but that's essentially it. So they probably don't want to be spending a lot of money on a 2 or a 3 unless a big swing is coming to smallball with Rhyne Howard as a power forward - something they've shown no interest in so far - but everything else is fair game. The point guard question remains open. Robinson was fine as the reliable veteran; Aari McDonald was again okay as an energy option and shooter (although missed a long stretch due to injury) but failed to grab the job and look like it was definitively hers. So a run at someone like Skylar Diggins-Smith, Jordin Canada or Natasha Cloud would seem reasonable unless they're really expecting a leap from McDonald.
Which of the bigs they might target somewhat depends on their intended timeline. Is this progressive growth around a core led by Howard, who's only 23? Or are they looking to jump forward right now, considering Parker is 31 and Gray may be at her absolute peak at 28? Or maybe you just call all the star names - Delle Donne, Griner, Jones (both Jonquel and Brionna), Ogwumike, Stewart (theoretically) - and see if anyone is interested in joining the project. A younger option like Alanna Smith could help too, but that might be too much like all those 'nice pieces' I mentioned earlier that they already have. Improvement could still come from growth and development from their youth or getting lucky in the draft - especially if Howard takes that next difficult leap from 'very, very good' to genuine star - but this feels like a roster that is still at least one major piece away. They added one in Gray last year and it made them better, but not yet good enough. There's still more needed, and I think Wright and Padover are both well aware of that.
Future assets: This is another team where there is no value in being bad in 2024, because their 2025 first-round pick is already gone. The Dream gave it up to Dallas in the Gray deal (and the Wings have already sent it to Washington in the later Stephanie Soares deal), so they may as well target improvement in the upcoming offseason. They have an extra third-rounder in 2025 from the Leigha Brown trade, for what that's worth, and suspended rights to Maite Cazorla if she should ever want to play in the US again. I wouldn't hold your breath.
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Atlanta needs a quality point guard, plain and simple. Danielle Robinson will be 35 next season, and has been on a steady decline since 2021. And of course, she can't shoot from distance which allows her defender to sag into the paint after she passes the ball.
Aari McDonald is not the answer. She's a tiny point guard with a shaky three whose A/TO is below 2.0.
Who that point guard might be is another question entirely, as there aren't enough to go around. Natasha Cloud? She can't shoot either, though at least she's tall. Jordin Canada? Do you believe she's a 35% three-point shooter? Some players have learned mid-career (Jason Kidd, for one). Running back Robinson and McDonald will not get the Dream over the hump.
Love to see it happen, but she has to make at least some threes.