The National Championship: Four Big Things
Breaking down four key things to keep in mind while watching South Carolina and Iowa face off for the national title
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After thousands of games and 154 days this season, it’s finally here – the national championship. Can Caitlin Clark go out in style and lead the Iowa Hawkeyes to their first national title, or will Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks capture their third crown in seven seasons and cap off the first undefeated season since UConn in 2015-16? Tune into ABC at 3 p.m. Eastern and follow along on Twitter @herhoopstats as we live-tweet the action from Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.
In the meantime, here are four important aspects of this matchup to keep in mind while watching.
South Carolina is the best team in the country
No, this take wouldn’t qualify for Calvin Wetzel’s and Dani Bar-Lavi’s annual March Madness Hot Takes article. At best, it’s a tepid take, but it’s nonetheless important to appreciate the Gamecocks’ greatness in order to understand how high of a mountain the Hawkeyes must climb to win the national championship.
Per usual, defense is the Gamecocks’ calling card. They lead the country in defensive rating, allowing only 75.9 points per 100 possessions. Of their last 122 opponents, only three have managed to hit their season scoring average. South Carolina ranks third in offensive rating, scoring 114.9 points per 100 possessions. Only two other times over the last 15 seasons has a team not named UConn ranked in the top three in both of these categories.
Just look at the scatterplot of offensive and defensive ratings this season. The Gamecocks are in a league of their own. It all adds up to a 37-0 record, including 12-0 against teams in the top 25 of Her Hoop Stats Rating.
Looking for some good news, Iowa fans? Well, here’s that same scatterplot from last season.
It’s a pretty similar story. Of course, the Hawkeyes upset the Gamecocks in last year’s national semifinal, demonstrating that almost anything can happen in a single game during March Madness when you have Caitlin Clark on your roster. Sometimes the best team isn’t the one cutting down the nets at the end of the season.
26-to-5
The Gamecocks dominated the offensive glass in last year’s national semifinal, grabbing 26 offensive boards to Iowa’s five. That +21 advantage is the second biggest in the last 15 years of the NCAA Tournament. More importantly, it resulted in South Carolina attempting 20 more field goals than Iowa. It took a subpar shooting night by the Gamecocks and a Caitlin Clark performance for the ages to send Iowa to the national title game.
If we see a similar differential in offensive rebounds and field-goal attempts today, South Carolina will be celebrating its third title. While they feature a completely revamped starting lineup compared to last season, the Gamecocks, who grab over 40 percent of their own misses (sixth in Division I this season), are still capable of imposing their will on the offensive glass. The threat of Iowa’s transition offense could neutralize South Carolina’s offensive rebounding ability to a degree. However, the bottom line is that this year’s Gamecocks are too efficient on the offensive end and have too many weapons to give them that many more opportunities.
South Carolina’s vast improvement from distance
Remember when Caitlin Clark waved off Raven Johnson in last year’s Final Four, indicating that the South Carolina guard was not a threat from long distance? Remember when the Hawkeyes effectively sacrificed the perimeter to protect the paint against South Carolina’s potent interior offense? That likely won’t work as well this time around.
Ranking 171st in 3-point percentage last season, perimeter shooting was the Gamecocks’ most glaring weakness. Much to the chagrin of the other 359 Division I teams, they’ve addressed that shortcoming. Johnson worked on her shot in the offseason – the junior guard is shooting 36.8 percent from long distance compared to just 24.1 percent last season. MiLaysia Fulwiley (34.3 percent), Bree Hall (38.3 percent) and Tessa Johnson (42.7 percent) are also threats from beyond the arc, but the game-changer is Te-Hina Paopao. The Oregon transfer ranks third in the country, knocking down a whopping 46.2 percent of her 3-point attempts this season.
The result? A more well-rounded Gamecocks offense that now ranks third in 3-point percentage (39.5 percent). Their 8.4 percentage-point increase since last year is the fifth-biggest improvement this season. Most crucially, it keeps opposing defenses honest. Three-point shooting accounts for a small proportion of the Gamecocks’ offense – just 23.3 percent of their points come from long range this season (266th in Division I). However, just the threat that multiple shooters can make you pay is enough to open up the paint, which remains the Gamecocks’ bread and butter.
A tale of two offenses and the importance of Clark’s supporting cast
Iowa and South Carolina are two of the country’s top three offenses, but they achieve their success in vastly different ways.
Most notably, Caitlin Clark is the focal point of the Hawkeyes offense. She’s responsible for over 59 percent of her team’s field goals (through assists and made shots), the highest in Division I this season. The highest such percentage on South Carolina’s roster is Raven Johnson at 24 percent. Clark has 30 games with at least 25 points this season. South Carolina? Zero. And yet, while Iowa has a slight edge in offensive rating, the end result is roughly the same.
Some might think that Iowa putting all of its proverbial eggs in the Caitlin Clark basket makes it easier for opponents to guard. However, it ignores that the defensive attention Clark commands creates quality scoring opportunities for her teammates. That, coupled with Clark’s elite passing ability, is why she is No. 3 all-time in assists and why the Hawkeyes drop over 90 points per contest.
Clark’s supporting cast generally did a good job of exploiting such opportunities against UConn, shooting 20-for-41 (48.8 percent) from the field. They need to do so again – particularly from three given South Carolina’s elite rim protection – if they hope to take home the title this afternoon. Iowa has averaged just shy of 99 points per contest in the 16 games where Clark’s teammates shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc this season. In the other 22 games? 86 points per contest.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Thanks for breaking down the odds and important facts and data. Looking forward to watching today's game. I know it will be a spectacular competition! Good Luck to both teams!
Thank you for all of this data. I just hope it's a fair game. The officials should not be a factor in deciding the outcome. #gococks