Her Hoop Stats Bracketology
A first look at the top 16 seeds for the 2022 NCAA women’s basketball tournament
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
It’s almost that time of year again! While we are still awaiting the first reveal of the women’s basketball selection committee’s top 16 seeds, we’ve seen enough of a body of work this season to start taking a look at how the top lines may shake out in March. In a season which has so far been full of upsets, the quality of the wins and losses under each team’s belt separates those on top from those barely holding on to the opportunity to host first and second round games.
There’s a few key items to note before revealing my top 16 seeds:
This bracket is based upon all games through January 10th.
The committee considers the availability of talent as part of the selection process. As such, I’ve assumed all players expected to be active for the NCAA tournament are available. (The most notable example here is UConn’s Paige Bueckers, who is expected to return for the Huskies in mid-February).
Players that were available during a given game are also considered. So, if losses (and wins) have come with the absence of key players due to injuries or COVID-19 protocols, that has also been considered.
As Her Hoop Stats’ certified bracketologist, Here’s how I predict the women’s basketball committee would select the top 16 seeds as of today:
And here’s how that would look by region:
There’s not a lot of surprises on the top line. South Carolina earns the top overall seed with a resume that already features eight ranked wins. Stanford and NC State follow, and Louisville earns the final No. 1 seed.
In addition to South Carolina, the SEC has three other teams on the top four lines, the most of any conference accounted for here. The ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 are all represented by three teams. Two teams from the Pac-12 also make the cut, and UConn is the lone representative from the Big East. The SEC once again has a wealth of top tier teams, with two entering on the No. 2 seed line. While Tennessee isn’t surprising to see there, LSU may raise some eyebrows. However, using our compare resumes tool, the Tigers’ body of work is comparable to Maryland’s who sits one line above them as the seventh overall seed.
Two teams in particular that stand out are Maryland and UConn, both of which have the talent to make a deep run in March, but currently sit on the No. 2 and No. 3 seed lines. Two of Maryland’s four losses came in the Baha Mar Thanksgiving tournament where the roster was severely depleted by injuries. Similarly for the Huskies, two of their three losses have come without Paige Bueckers or Azzi Fudd available. While the committee will consider the absent personnel and none of the losses mentioned are “bad losses”, both teams also lack a strong resume of quality wins. Maryland can improve their position in Big Ten play and UConn has multiple upcoming non-conference games that could boost their resume.
In addition to the 16 teams listed above and others in the current top 25 rankings, two teams to keep an eye on that could sneak into a first round hosting role are Nebraska and Virginia Tech. While both teams suffered losses this weekend (to Iowa and North Carolina, respectively), they currently rank among the top 20 in NET ratings and in the top 25 in our Her Hoop Stats ratings.
It is after all, still only January and there’s plenty of room for movement with a multitude of impact conference games remaining to be played. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the season on who’s moving up and down as the next two months play out.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.