The Weekly Roundup: February 22

Rounding up the latest stories in women's basketball, and a closer look at why Rutgers could be dangerous in March

Feb 22, 2021

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Happy Monday! Let’s dive in to the last week of basketball.

The Best Upset

BYU upsets Gonzaga (61-56) — The BYU Cougars, who were listed as the last team in on ESPN's latest 64-team bracket, got a win against No. 16 Gonzaga last Thursday that could be a big boost to their tournament resume. The Cougars won their sixth-straight game and snapped the Zags 17-game winning streak. BYU shot 49.0% from the field and had four players score in double digits, led by Shaylee Gonzales with 16 points, seven assists, three steals, and three rebounds. Jenn Wirth led Gonzaga with 18 points and 10 rebounds, but BYU held Jill Townsend to just 3 points on 1-for-7 shooting.

Jacqueline’s Top 25

UConn (18-1)
Stanford (20-2)
South Carolina (18-3)
Texas A&M (20-1)
NC State (15-2)
Baylor (17-2)
Louisville (20-2)
Maryland (16-2)
Arizona (15-2)
UCLA (13-4)
Michigan (13-2)
Oregon (13-6)
Tennessee (13-6)
Indiana (14-4)
South Florida (13-1)
Arkansas (17-7)
Ohio State (13-4)
Georgia (17-4)
Kentucky (15-6)
Rutgers (10-3)
West Virginia (17-3)
Gonzaga (19-3)
South Dakota State (19-2)
Missouri State (15-2)
DePaul (13-5)

By The Numbers

After missing nine games because of a COVID-19 pause, Rutgers has won five straight. Led by their aggressive defense, the Scarlet Knights have won those nine games by an average margin of 21.2 points, an impressive mark.

Senior Arella Guirantes is averaging 22.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.2 blocks a game, and freshman Diamond Johnson is averaging 18.7 points and 2.2 steals a game. Johnson has been lights out from deep, earning nearly half of her points from threes and converting 53.3%.

With their signature press and tough defense, C. Vivian Stringer’s team ranks first nationally in steal rate (17.1%), fifth in block rate (15.2%) and fourth in average opponent turnover rate (27.0%), but Rutgers is also having their best offensive season in years.

RU ranks second in offensive rating in the country behind Maryland and is scoring 1.15 points per attempt, with an effective field goal percentage of 54.5%. They’re rebounding 40.8% of their own misses (good enough for 10th nationally), and they excel at making teams pay for turning the ball over, outscoring opponents in points off turnovers by an average of 16.5 this year.

Rutgers W.Basketball @RutgersWBB

The steal and the ball movement

That said, opinions— computer and human—differ on where Rutgers stands amongst the country’s best teams. They rank No. 7 overall in the Her Hoop Stats ratings and No. 11 in the NET Rankings. They haven’t broken into the AP Poll all season, but came in 26th in voting last week.

ESPN ranked the Scarlet Knights as a No. 10 seed in a 64-team bracket. They missed out on marquee opportunities to prove themselves against ranked competitors during their month-long pause (six of the nine games postponed/canceled were against ranked conference rivals). If they can overcome that and make the tournament field, the Scarlet Knights have the talent to make a run in March.

What We’re Working On

Her Hoop Stats released a new WNBA feature tool that charts 2021 player salaries with 2020 player production. You can track all players, or just free agents, with any per game, total, value, or advanced stat, and highlight players and track them as you change stats. It’s great for salary analysis, and pairs perfectly with our WNBA Salary Cap data.

Calvin Wetzel broke down Wins Above Bubble (WAB), another tool to help rank NCAA teams based on past performances and resume strength.

Gabe Ibrahim grouped WNBA teams into tiers based on how they stack up after most of free agency.

Kim Doss wrote about how Aari McDonald has scored less for Arizona this year, but her role is more important to the team’s success than ever before.

In case you missed it, Calvin and Gabe broke down the Natasha Howard trade and previewed Michigan-Indiana and South Carolina-Tennessee ahead of their games last Thursday on the Her Hoop Stats Happy Hour.

Everything you need to keep up with WNBA free agency. Trackers are updated as we confirm new contracts: 2021 free agency tracker, salary cap team sheets, and WNBA CBA FAQ.

Before You Go

Maryland Athletics has done a great job producing women’s basketball-centric content this year, and their latest masterpiece is a must-watch. Where were you when Kristi Toliver hit “The Shot?”