Tracking the Wetz Betz

A regularly updated ledger of Calvin Wetzel’s WNBA bets

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Let’s start here: Don’t bet your life savings on my advice. Actually, don’t bet your entire life savings on anything. But especially my advice.

I watch the WNBA and I write about the WNBA, so I know a thing or two about the WNBA. And I’ve spent countless hours studying the predictive analytics of KenPom, FiveThirtyEight, and our own NCAA women’s basketball model, among others. (Keep an eye out for our WNBA model, which will be released soon!) But I’m not Nostradamus, nor am I an experienced bettor. I’m just a guy who started betting on WNBA games this spring after using the down time between college basketball season and the WNBA season to learn as much as I could about sports betting.

One of the things I've learned is the importance of transparency. You may have seen prognosticators promoting their picks online, sometimes for a fee. What is crucial to understand is how well they've actually performed over time. Although past performance is no guarantee of future success, transparency is essential for understanding who you’re receiving advice from as well as fairly evaluating your own performance. I’ve come out ahead as of this publishing, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if I fell into the negatives at some point during the year. If you’re planning on tailing me, it’s only fair that you have that information.

Keeping that in mind, I will be updating this post regularly with the track record of my picks — the ones that those of you who follow Her Hoop Stats on Twitter have come to know as “The Wetz Betz.” These are all actual bets I have placed at PointsBet Sportsbook, not just picks I have made for the public. Each bet was (and will continue to be) publicly posted on Twitter ahead of the game based on the line/odds available at the time I put the money down. If you want to follow my betting record, go ahead and bookmark this page.

Seasoned sports bettors can feel free to skip to the “Pick Details” section to see my performance. For the rookies, let’s quickly break down the different ways to measure how my bets have performed. If you need a refresher on the three main types of bets, check out Part 2 of our WNBA betting series.

Record

This one is simple: How many picks did I get right and how many did I miss? For against the spread (ATS) or totals bets this is a decent indicator of performance, but there is more to the story when moneyline bets are included.

Units

In order to level the playing field between high-stakes gamblers and casual bettors, we can use units rather than dollars to measure profit. A unit can be whatever amount you feel comfortable wagering on one pick. If you’re new or risk-averse, that could be a dollar; if you’re a high roller, you might use $100 as your unit.

The optimal betting strategy typically involves varying the amount of your bets — depending on your confidence level and the odds — using the Kelly criterion. For simplicity, however, I’m betting exactly one unit on each of my picks. This means a losing bet will return -1 unit, while a winning bet will return positive units based on the odds of the bet (most commonly 0.91 units for an ATS or totals bet at -110 odds).

We can also use the units to calculate the return on investment (ROI), which is the same in gambling as it is in the stock market: the units won as a percentage of the units bet (or “invested”).

Closing Line Value

The previous measures are the best way to quantify success to date, but closing line value (CLV) is the best predictor of success moving forward. The closing line is the last line posted before the game starts and is typically considered the most accurate forecaster of the final margin. Since the lines move throughout the day, your goal as a bettor is to beat the closing line, or to get better value by placing your bet earlier in the day than what you would have gotten on the same bet right before tipoff.

As an example, in the first Wetz Betz I bet on Atlanta +2.5 — Atlanta to either lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win the game — against Indiana early in the day. The closing line was Atlanta +2, which meant during the day the sportsbooks essentially decided that the Dream were slightly smaller underdogs than what they thought when I placed the bet. Put another way, the books viewed my bet as slightly more likely to win when the game started than they did when I placed it. That means I beat the closing line.

The more you beat the closing line by, the higher your CLV% is, and vice versa. For more on the math behind CLV%, check out this explanation by NFL bettor Fabian Sommer. (The same concept applies to the WNBA as well as other sports.)

For each pick below I will list the closing line and the CLV%. The CLV totals below reflect how many of my bets beat the closing line or were worse than the closing line, and the CLV% in the totals section is my average CLV% across every pick. There are two ways to calculate CLV%: with or without taking into account the juice. (See Part 1 of our betting series for a breakdown of “the juice.”) The figures below represent the CLV% without factoring in the juice.


Now that we’ve covered what the important numbers mean, here are the overall stats, as well as the stats broken up by type of bet. Scroll to the bottom for the compiled list of pick details (to be updated throughout the season). All lines and odds are courtesy of PointsBet, the official Authorized Gaming Operator of the WNBA.

Overall:

Record: 37-26-3

Units bet: 66

Units won: +8.51

ROI: +12.90%

Positive CLV bets: 39

Negative CLV bets: 11

CLV%: +3.14%

ATS:

Record: 14-8-1

Units bet: 23

Units won: +4.96

ROI: +21.57%

Positive CLV bets: 14

Negative CLV bets: 3

CLV%: +2.51%

Moneyline:

Record: 5-7

Units bet: 12

Units won: -1.85

ROI: -15.45%

Positive CLV bets: 9

Negative CLV bets: 1

CLV%: +4.08%

Totals (Over/Under):

Record: 18-11-2

Units bet: 31

Units won: +5.41

ROI: +17.44%

Positive CLV bets: 16

Negative CLV bets: 7

CLV%: +3.24%


This is Part 4 of our 2021 WNBA betting series. Here are our previous installments:

This series is about learning, so we want to hear from you! If you have any questions or any betting topics you’d like to see covered, please feel free to let us know in the comments or tweet at us @herhoopstats.


Pick Details:

  • 5/21: Win | Atlanta +2.5 (-110)

    • Result: Atlanta 83, Indiana 79

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Atlanta +2

    • CLV%: +4.01%

  • 5/21: Win | Washington -2.5 (-110)

    • Result: Washington 101, New York 72

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Washington -3

    • CLV%: +3.82%

  • 5/24: Loss | Dallas +1.5 (-110)

    • Result: New York 88, Dallas 81

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Even

    • CLV%: +4.52%

  • 5/24: Win | Dallas/New York over 167 (-110)

    • Result: New York 88, Dallas 81

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: over 167.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: +1.99%

  • 5/25: Win | Washington -2 (-110)

    • Result: Washington 85, Indiana 69

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Washington -2.5

    • CLV%: +4.21%

  • 5/25: Loss | Connecticut moneyline (+145)

    • Result: Seattle 90, Connecticut 87

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Connecticut +145

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 5/26: Win | Las Vegas/Phoenix under 167 (-110)

    • Result: Las Vegas 85, Phoenix 79

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 167 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 5/28: Loss | Minnesota moneyline (+215)

    • Result: Seattle 82, Minnesota 72

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Minnesota +200

    • CLV%: 5.00%

  • 5/29: Win | Atlanta moneyline (+130)

    • Result: Atlanta 90, New York 87

    • Units won: 1.3

    • Closing line: Atlanta +120

    • CLV%: 4.55%

  • 5/30: Loss | Chicago moneyline (-110)

    • Result: Los Angeles 82, Chicago 79

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Chicago -150

    • CLV%: 14.55%

  • 5/30: Loss | Indiana/Las Vegas under 169 (-110)

    • Result: Las Vegas 101, Indiana 78

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 168.5 (-115)

    • CLV%: 4.41%

  • 6/1: Push | Indiana +15 (-105)

    • Result: Seattle 88, Indiana 73

    • Units won: 0

    • Closing line: Indiana +15.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: -1.22%

  • 6/1: Win | Connecticut moneyline (+100)

    • Result: Connecticut 74, Las Vegas 67

    • Units won: 1

    • Closing line: Connecticut +105

    • CLV%: -2.44%

  • 6/3: Loss | New York +9 (-115)

    • Result: Las Vegas 94, New York 82

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: New York +9 (-115)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/3: Loss | Indiana moneyline (+200)

    • Result: Los Angeles 98, Indiana 63

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Indiana +180

    • CLV%: +7.14%

  • 6/4: Win | Dallas/Seattle over 170.5 (-110)

    • Result: Seattle 105, Dallas 102

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: over 172.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: +12.22%

  • 6/5: Win | Chicago/Los Angeles under 159.5 (-110)

    • Result: Los Angeles 68, Chicago 63

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 157 (-110)

    • CLV%: +18.87%

  • 6/6: Win | Dallas/Seattle under 176 (-110)

    • Result: Dallas 68, Seattle 67

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 178.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: -17.00%

  • 6/8: Push | Dallas/Phoenix over 166 (-110)

    • Result: Dallas 85, Phoenix 81

    • Units won: 0

    • Closing line: over 165.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: -3.13%

  • 6/8: Loss | Phoenix moneyline (-125)

    • Result: Dallas 85, Phoenix 81

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Phoenix -136

    • CLV%: +3.73%

  • 6/9: Loss | Atlanta +8.5 (-110)

    • Result: Seattle 95, Atlanta 71

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Atlanta +8.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/9: Win | Chicago moneyline (-510)

    • Result: Chicago 92, Indiana 76

    • Units won: 0.20

    • Closing line: Chicago -530

    • CLV%: +0.62%

  • 6/10: Push | Los Angeles/Washington 2nd half under 80 (-115)

    • Result: Washington 44, Los Angeles 36

    • Units won: 0

    • Closing line: under 79

    • CLV%: +7.40%

  • 6/11: Win | Seattle/Atlanta under 168.5 (-110)

    • Result: Seattle 86, Atlanta 75

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 171

    • CLV%: -12.79%

  • 6/11: Win | Dallas/Phoenix under 166 (-110)

    • Result: Dallas 77, Phoenix 59

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 167.5

    • CLV%: -5.63%

  • 6/11: Win | Dallas moneyline (+120)

    • Result: Dallas 77, Phoenix 59

    • Units won: 1.2

    • Closing line: Dallas +115

    • CLV%: +2.33%

  • 6/12: Loss | Chicago/Indiana under 161 (-110)

    • Result: Chicago 83, Indiana 79

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 161 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/15: Loss | Seattle/Indiana 1st half over 82 (-110)

    • Result: Seattle 41, Indiana 33

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 82.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: +4.13%

  • 6/15: Loss | Minnesota -3.5 (-115)

    • Result: Chicago 105, Minnesota 89

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Minnesota -4 (-110)

    • CLV%: +1.35%

  • 6/17: Win | Seattle/Indiana under 165 (-105)

    • Result: Seattle 79, Indiana 69

    • Units won: 0.95

    • Closing line: under 164 (-110)

    • CLV%: +8.08%

  • 6/17: Loss | Atlanta/Washington under 164.5 (-110)

    • Result: Washington 96, Atlanta 93

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 164.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/17: Win | Washington +1.5 (-110)

    • Result: Washington 96, Atlanta 93

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Washington +1 (-110)

    • CLV%: +2.28%

  • 6/17: Loss | New York/Las Vegas under 172 (-105)

    • Result: Las Vegas 103, New York 76

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 173 (-110)

    • CLV%: -3.54%

  • 6/18: Win | Phoenix/Los Angeles under 154.5 (-110)

    • Result: Phoenix 80, Los Angeles 66

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 154.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/19: Loss | Connecticut/Chicago under 156 (-110)

    • Result: Chicago 91, Connecticut 81

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 156 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/19: Win | Indiana +10 (-110)

    • Result: Washington 82, Indiana 77

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Indiana +9.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: +4.33%

  • 6/19: Loss | Minnesota +3.5 (-110)

    • Result: Dallas 95, Minnesota 77

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Minnesota +3 (-110)

    • CLV%: +3.82%

  • 6/19: Loss | Minnesota/Dallas under 165 (-110)

    • Result: Dallas 95, Minnesota 77

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 165 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/20: Win | New York moneyline (+145)

    • Result: New York 76, Los Angeles 73

    • Units won: 1.45

    • Closing line: New York +120

    • CLV%: +11.36%

  • 6/22: Win | Chicago/New York 4th quarter under 43 (-110)

    • Result: New York 20, Chicago 17

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 43 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/22: Loss | Dallas -3.5 (+120)

    • Result: Connecticut 80, Dallas 70

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Dallas -3.5 (+125)

    • CLV%: -2.22%

  • 6/22: Win | Washington +13.5 (-110)

    • Result: Washington 87, Seattle 83

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Washington +13.5 (-115)

    • CLV%: +2.11%

  • 6/24: Win | Chicago/New York under 170.5 (-110)

    • Result: Chicago 91, New York 68

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 171.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: -6.87%

  • 6/25: Win | Las Vegas/Minnesota over 170 (-110)

    • Result: Minnesota 90, Las Vegas 89

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: over 171.5 (-121)

    • CLV%: +11.36%

  • 6/27: Win | Seattle/Las Vegas over 169.5 (-110)

    • Result: Las Vegas 95, Seattle 92

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: over 170.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: +7.91%

  • 6/27: Win | Phoenix -6.5 (-110)

    • Result: Phoenix 88, Los Angeles 79

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Phoenix -7 (-115)

    • CLV%: +6.06%

  • 6/29: Win | Connecticut -5.5 (-110)

    • Result: Connecticut 90, Washington 71

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Connecticut -6.5 (-115)

    • CLV%: +10.42%

  • 6/29: Loss | New York moneyline (+140)

    • Result: Atlanta 73, New York 69

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: New York (+135)

    • CLV%: +2.13%

  • 6/30: Loss | Dallas moneyline (+115)

    • Result: Chicago 91, Dallas 81

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Dallas (+115)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 6/30: Loss | Minnesota/Phoenix over 163.5 (-110)

    • Result: Minnesota 82, Phoenix 76

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: over 165.5 (-115)

    • CLV%: +14.55%

  • 6/30: Win | Las Vegas -11.5 (-110)

    • Result: Las Vegas 99, Los Angeles 75

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Las Vegas -12 (-115)

    • CLV%: +5.53%

  • 7/1: Loss | Connecticut/Indiana under 153.5 (+115)

    • Result: Connecticut 86, Indiana 80

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 153.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: +12.62%

  • 7/1: Win | Connecticut 1st half -9.5 (+110)

    • Result: Connecticut 55, Indiana 37

    • Units won: 1.1

    • Closing line: Connecticut -9.5 (-115)

    • CLV%: +12.33%

  • 7/2: Win | Dallas +2.5 (-110)

    • Result: Dallas 100, Chicago 91

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Dallas +2.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 7/2: Loss | Chicago/Dallas under 168 (-110)

    • Result: Dallas 100, Chicago 91

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: under 167.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: +4.13%

  • 7/2: Win | Las Vegas/Los Angeles under 167.5 (-110)

    • Result: Las Vegas 66, Los Angeles 58

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 167.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 7/2: Win | Atlanta +15.5 (-105)

    • Result: Seattle 91, Atlanta 88

    • Units won: 0.95

    • Closing line: Atlanta +15.5 (-105)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 7/3: Win | Connecticut/Indiana under 156.5 (-110)

    • Result: Indiana 73, Connecticut 67

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 155 (-110)

    • CLV%: +12.99%

  • 7/4: Win | Minnesota +3 (-110)

    • Result: Minnesota 99, Phoenix 68

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Minnesota +4 (-115)

    • CLV%: -5.68%

  • 7/7: Loss | Dallas +4.5 (-110)

    • Result: Minnesota 85, Dallas 79

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: Dallas +4.5 (-115)

    • CLV%: +2.11%

  • 7/9: Loss | Atlanta/Connecticut over 160 (-110)

    • Result: Connecticut 84, Atlanta 72

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: over 159.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: -4.55%

  • 7/9: Loss | New York -3.5 (-110)

    • Result: Indiana 82, New York 69

    • Units won: -1

    • Closing line: New York -3.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 7/9: Win | Seattle/Phoenix under 165 (-110)

    • Result: Phoenix 85, Seattle 77

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 164 (-110)

    • CLV%: +7.91%

  • 7/9: Win | Minnesota/Las Vegas under 174 (-110)

    • Result: Minnesota 77, Las Vegas 67

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 172 (-110)

    • CLV%: +17.48%

  • 7/11: Win | Indiana +5.5 (-110)

    • Result: Indiana 79, Atlanta 68

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: Indiana +5.5 (-110)

    • CLV%: 0%

  • 7/11: Win | Phoenix/Seattle under 163 (-110)

    • Result: Seattle 82, Phoenix 75

    • Units won: 0.91

    • Closing line: under 162 (-110)

    • CLV%: +7.91%


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