Weekly Roundup: $500,000 On the Line
Breaking down notable stats for each team in tonight's Commissioner's Cup championship game
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Here’s some advice to anyone else who writes trivia about the WNBA: if a question asks about or even mentions the number of triple-doubles this season, you’re foolish not to qualify it with some version of the phrase “at this time.” I recently played the fool, as Alyssa Thomas’ triple-double Friday night, the sixth in the league this season, changed the answer to my weekly roundup trivia question last week. Don’t get me wrong - minor trivia question edits aside, the proliferation of triple-doubles this season is an exciting development for the W!
So, will it be Las Vegas’ or Chicago’s players who walk away over half a million dollars richer after tonight’s Commissioner’s Cup final? I have no idea (cut me some slack, the betting line for the game is only Chicago -1.0 last I checked). However, to whet your appetite for tonight’s festivities, here are 10 notable stats about the teams involved (in no particular order).
1. The cream of the WNBA crop
OK, let’s start with the low-hanging fruit. Tonight’s Commissioner’s Cup championship game features the league’s two best teams, Chicago and Las Vegas. I don’t think that’s a particularly controversial statement, because, in addition to possessing the league’s top two records, the Sky and Aces rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the following smorgasbord of statistical categories: points per game, offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, points per scoring attempt, points per play, and defensive rebounds per game.
2. Can’t touch this
Much ado has been made about Las Vegas’ proficiency on offense, and rightly so. The Aces lead the league in offensive rating, scoring 106.4 points per 100 possessions. If the season ended today, that would rank seventh all time. They’ve posted six 100-point games this year; no other team this season has hit the century mark in regulation more than twice. A seldom discussed aspect of the Aces’ offensive efficiency this season is their ability to take care of the ball. Las Vegas has turned the ball over on just 13.2% of its possessions this season, the best turnover rate in the league and, if the season ended today, the fourth-best of all time (last season’s Aces squad owns the top spot).
3. Cool under pressure
The Sky’s 21-7 record entering tonight’s game is remarkable considering they’ve been involved in 23 games where the final margin was single digits. For some context around that number, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Connecticut are tied for second this season with just 16 such games. With eight games remaining, the Sky could very well break the WNBA single-season record of 26 single-digit margin games held by the 2003 Los Angeles Sparks.
So, how in the world is Chicago at the top of the league standings? Simply put, they step up in crunch time. The Sky have outscored opponents this season by 12.2 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter, the best fourth-quarter net rating in the W. The end result is 16 wins in single-digit margin games, already tied for the second most in WNBA history (behind the aforementioned 2003 Sparks). Critics might suggest that Chicago has been fortunate to escape so many of these contests with a W and that their luck could run out during the remainder of the season. However, Sky fans could point to how all of this experience in close games could pay dividends during postseason play. One thing’s for sure this season: when the going gets tough, the Sky get going.
4. The greatest season from beyond the arc?
No, that’s not hyperbolic. When considering her accuracy from distance coupled with just how many triples she’s hit, Kelsey Plum is arguably having the greatest season from beyond the arc in league history. The Aces guard and league’s second-leading scorer has knocked down 88 threes this season. That’s already tied for the most in league history by someone not named Diana Taurasi (who, in addition to owning the top six spots in the list, has drained 85 threes this season). In my piece on All-Star Game stats, I called out how Plum is on pace to finish with the second most threes in a regular season since Taurasi’s 2006 campaign when she hit 121. What I failed to mention is that Plum is on track to become the only player in league history to average three triples per game in a season while also shooting at least 40% from long distance.
5. Sharing the wealth
This next stat is more a reflection of just how many weapons Chicago’s offense possesses than anything else. Of the teams in WNBA history that finished with the league’s best regular season record, only one had its leading scorer place outside the league’s top 10 in points per game (the 2007 Detroit Shock). Kahleah Copper, the Sky’s leading scorer at 14.8 points per contest this year, currently ranks 20th.
6. A tale of two halves
It’s been the best of times for Las Vegas in the first 20 minutes of games, and unfortunately, it’s been the worst of times in the final two quarters. The Aces have outscored opponents by 16.2 points per 100 possessions in the first half of games this season, leading the league by a country mile. Then, in the final 20 minutes, Las Vegas’ net rating plummets to -2.3 (10th in the league). That 18.5 net rating differential is easily the biggest in the league this season.
So, do Becky Hammon’s halftime speeches need some serious work? Probably not, this phenomenon is likely the combination of multiple factors. First, it’s partly how high the Aces set the bar in the first half. Maintaining a 16.2 net rating throughout a whole season is something that’s been done only by the early Houston Comets teams. Second, it’s possible fatigue is a factor. In addition to playing at the second-fastest pace in the W, the Aces starting five have played a total of 494 minutes together, 184 minutes clear of second place. Third, a large amount of garbage time could influence the second-half numbers - the Aces are tied for the league lead with four wins by 20 points or more. Of course, owning the biggest blown lead in league history (earlier this season versus Chicago) doesn’t exactly do wonders for Las Vegas’ second-half numbers.
7. MVP! MVP!
Will A’ja Wilson take home her second career MVP this season? She’s making an awfully good case for it. Wilson ranks in the top five this year in points (fifth with 19.4 per game), rebounds (second with 9.7 per outing), and blocks (second with 2.1 per game). No other player ranks in the top five in all three categories, and Breanna Stewart is the only other player to even rank in the top 10.
8. She’s everywhere
Yeah, I know. It’s another of those stats demonstrating how Candace Parker does it all, but it still never ceases to be impressive. I’ve previously talked about how she leads the league (by a landslide) in career near-triple doubles (i.e., missing out on a triple-double by either a point, rebound, assist, steal, or block) and career games with at least 10 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. Six times in WNBA history has a player finished a season averaging at least 10 points, five rebounds, four assists, and one block - Parker owns five of those seasons and is on pace for No. 6 this season.
9. The more things change, the more they stay the same
The differences between Becky Hammon’s space-and-pace offense and Bill Laimbeer’s offensive philosophy are well-documented. Most notably, following four seasons of ranking last in three-point rate under Laimbeer, Las Vegas ranks fourth this season under Hammon, almost doubling its percentage of total shots taken from beyond the arc. Despite such a stark contrast, the end result is more or less the same. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the table below detailing the Aces’ offensive rating in each of the past three seasons.
10. No place like home
Dorothy’s words apply just as well to Chicago Sky and Wintrust Arena this season. During a time when home court advantage is becoming less of a factor in the W, the Sky are a league-best 11-2 at home (compared to a still-respectable 10-5 on the road). In fact, Chicago hasn’t lost a home game in nearly two months, rattling off nine straight home wins during that stretch. The last team to knock off the Sky at Wintrust? Las Vegas.
Fun with graphs
One of our stated objectives at Her Hoop Stats is to unlock better insight for women’s basketball. To that end, we recently released a new feature that allows you to graph various WNBA statistical trends throughout the league’s history. For example, why earlier this season did I refer to the past few seasons as the golden age of offensive efficiency? This graph will shed some light on that assertion. Better yet, why has there been an explosion of triple-doubles this season? This graph detailing the spike in the assist rate helps explain this phenomenon.
There’s much to explore here, so be sure to check it out! Special thanks to our own Morgan Reeder for her efforts in developing this new feature.
WNBA schedule this week (All times Eastern)
Here is a complete listing of this week’s games, start times, and where you can catch the action.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
In the latest episode of Courtside, Gabe Ibrahim and Christy Winters-Scott discussed Aliyah Boston’s ESPYs snub, the Lynx’s recent travel woes, the Liberty’s recent struggles, and much more.
Richard Cohen questioned the rationale of expanding the WNBA regular season to 40 games and broke down Kelsey Plum’s new contract in his weekly WNBA Dissected column.
WNBA insider Khristina Williams recently reported that Dallas is likely to trade Allisha Gray during the offseason. Assuming this ultimately happens, Alford Corriette explored several different trade scenarios.
Other recommended content
For SLAM (and also appearing in WSLAM 2), Jackie Powell described the mental and physical struggles Mystics forward Alysha Clark experienced after being sidelined with a Lisfranc injury to her right foot last season.
The Next’s Matthew Walter wrote about the importance of Sydney Colson to Las Vegas and the Aces guard’s gratitude for the opportunity to play in the W.
Dawn Staley joined host Jon Stewart on The Problem with Jon Stewart podcast to discuss Brittney Griner’s wrongful detainment in Russia.
Trivia question of the week
First, here’s the answer to last week’s trivia question:
What is the sum of the following?
Triple-doubles in the WNBA this season
WNBA Defensive Player of the Year awards won by Sylvia Fowles
Number of times Las Vegas or New York scored 100 points in their three meetings with each other this season (so, theoretically, the maximum would be six)
The jersey number of the player leading the WNBA in assists this season
Answer: 23 (5 + 4 + 5 + 9). Note: there have now been six triple-doubles this season; however, this question was posted before Alyssa Thomas’ triple-double on July 22.
And now, here’s this week’s question:
Who has the most 30-point games this season, with three?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.