WNBA Dissected 2023 Week 13: The evolving WNBA point guard, and breaking down Mystics and Storm moves
Another trip around the world of the WNBA and topics that have caught the eye this week
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What's the Point?
When I was tweeting recently that Jordin Canada's going to cost Los Angeles a lot more to keep in the upcoming offseason than she did for this year - a position I stand by, for what it's worth - it occurred to me that we've arrived at an interesting stage for the point guard position. Coaches have been talking about 'positionless basketball' for years, but it's often been largely hot air. Most WNBA teams in most lineups still went with a primary ballhandler, two other perimeter players, and two bigs. However, alongside the 4 becoming an increasingly amorphous position between the post and the perimeter, ballhandling and distributing responsibilities seem to be increasingly spreading out. So are we witnessing the sidelining and potential eventual death of the pure point guard?
The number of teams run by the nominal point guard on nearly every possession definitely seems to be decreasing. Most teams still open games with a player who would have 'PG' next to them on a lineup card, but the role has changed. In Washington, for example, Natasha Cloud might be considered their point guard but Brittney Sykes has slid into a role where she initiates nearly as many possessions, and everyone from Ariel Atkins to Elena Delle Donne to Myisha Hines-Allen takes their turn when healthy and available. In Las Vegas, Chelsea Gray would probably be considered by most as one of the best point guards in the world, but Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young are on the ball to start possessions almost as much. Seattle's upturn in form came when they benched the more 'pure' point guard options on their team, turned to Sami Whitcomb as a starter, and started letting Gabby Williams run most possessions despite being nominally a wing. Phoenix and Dallas have star off-guards who control the ball so much that the point guard's role changes significantly because of the amount of time they spend off the ball. Even in New York, where Courtney Vandersloot is the closest thing to an heir to Sue Bird and may well break most of her records, virtually the whole core rotation is capable of bringing the ball up and initiating possessions - there's no desperation to find Sloot in order to start the offense.
Over in Minnesota, the point guard spot has been a revolving door since the retirement of Lindsay Whalen, the player who battled with Bird for a long time to be recognised as the best point guard in the game. Cheryl Reeve has entered several recent seasons without seeming to know who her primary ballhandler is going to be, or making it a week or two into the season before realising that the original plan isn't going to work. However, each time it's mostly worked out okay. The Lynx haven't been an elite team in the post-Whalen years but they've usually been at least decent, and found primary ballhandlers from somewhere who've had good years. Whether it was picking up Odyssey Sims for next to nothing from LA when the Sparks gave up on her, Crystal Dangerfield in her rookie year after she fell to the second round, Layshia Clarendon and Moriah Jefferson after other teams cut them, or Lindsay Allen this year when other options got hurt, the Lynx have always come up with someone. But I'm not sure which side of the argument this falls on. Does it prove the remaining importance of a primary ballhandler because Minnesota have consistently realised they needed one and eventually settled on somebody? Or does it show there's usually someone available who can do the job, probably on a minimum salary, so you shouldn't be placing too much importance on it anymore?
As always, cash becomes an intrinsic part of this discussion. If point guards aren't going to be particularly important anymore, then there's no need to pay too much to acquire or keep them. In Minnesota's case, for example, you can let someone else give Jefferson over $420,000 in guaranteed money over three years while signing Allen for the minimum to do the same job (albeit the initial plan may have been to ask Tiffany Mitchell to run the offense, which didn't go so well - but also shows their lack of intrinsic belief in needing a pure point guard). Canada and Clarendon were both available for LA to sign for the veteran minimum this year because there was no market around the league to give them more. That said, Jefferson got that deal in Phoenix, Indiana gave Erica Wheeler a whole lot of money, and Chicago gave up the house for Marina Mabrey expecting her to be some kind of lead ballhandler (even if that also hasn't exactly worked out as planned). Some players in the right situations are still going to get paid, but you need to be prepared to evolve with how you handle the role.
I haven't even mentioned edge cases like Connecticut, where Alyssa Thomas's unique skills entirely alter the role of players like Natisha Hiedeman and Tyasha Harris who might be theoretically considered the point guards. Or Atlanta, where they've gone through veteran Danielle Robinson, young speedy gunner Aari McDonald and rookie wing-sized distributor Haley Jones at the point this year - and are exactly .500 with each of them in the starting PG spot. Or Chicago, where Courtney Williams, a wing for her entire career, has almost unintentionally slid into the primary ballhandler role that was meant to be Mabrey's. The Sky's evolution this year perhaps suggests that some teams aren't quite ready for the equal-opportunity approach, even with players like Mabrey and Kahleah Copper on the wing who like to have the ball in their hands.
The conclusion, if there can be one, is inevitably that every team will have to find their own way of working. Exceptional talents will still get paid, and variation in deals for the tiers lower down will often depend on situation, leverage and luck. The era of point guards as pure as a Teresa Weatherspoon and her 6.0 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes is likely over (and has been for a while), but there are still jobs available if you can add a little shooting to the distribution. And if you play as well as Canada has this year, you're still going to get paid.
Ariel Manoeuvres
I talked extensively last week about the possibility of veteran contract extensions being inked before the end of the season and almost immediately one I suggested as most likely was completed. Ariel Atkins signed a two-year extension to her current deal in Washington, tacking two fully protected seasons on in 2024 and 2025 at $200,000 each. Under CBA rules, extensions can start at a maximum of 120% of the final year of the existing deal, so as she's currently on $175,000 the extension could've opened as high as $210,000. If she'd waited until she became a free agent at the end of the season she would've been eligible to re-sign for up to the supermax, which next year is $241,984. So she locks in two more years of guaranteed near-max money, and Washington gets to keep a player who would've been heavily courted by other teams at a little bit of a discount.
It's one of those deals that essentially makes sense for all involved and is hard to argue with. Atkins is an excellent two-way guard, albeit one who perhaps hasn't advanced her offensive game quite as much as might've been hoped. She produces at a consistent rate, but when pieces have been missing in Washington we've rarely seen Atkins step up and take an active role at the forefront of the offense (the way Brittney Sykes has been willing to attempt for the Mystics this year, for example). But that's a minor quibble with a player who makes you better at both ends of the floor. Plenty of other teams would've happily given her this contract.
For Washington, as I discussed last week, it removes one of their unknown variables for the offseason. Three key starters becoming unrestricted free agents simultaneously is always going to make a team nervous, so now they're down to only Elena Delle Donne and Natasha Cloud - and there's every chance extension negotiations are ongoing with both of them as well. It also illustrates to outside players and agents that one of their long-term pieces is happy there and doesn't even want to test the waters in free agency, which is always a nice element to add to your reputation around the league.
For Atkins it's good money close to the maximum, and while she could've pushed for more and likely got it if she forced the Mystics' hand, it also allows them enough room to keep their core together. They can bring back Delle Donne and Cloud at around the numbers they're at right now, fill out the roster with their first-round pick and two minimums, and that fits under the cap (barely). If Delle Donne is willing to take a step down from the supermax - which would seem reasonable given how many games she often misses - or they're willing to consider moves such as trading Myisha Hines-Allen, then they'll have more room for other possibilities. There's also the chance that Cloud or Delle Donne want to consider other teams, which would shake things up further for the Mystics. Either could still be cored, but the designation comes with a one-year supermax offer, so that could complicate the cap math further.
As a side-note, Atkins's extension takes her through the 2025 season, which is likely to look like an end-point for a large number of deals over the next year or two. With the likely CBA opt-out and new broadcast deal both almost certain to kick in after the 2025 season, a lot of players and agents aren't going to want to lock themselves into deals that extend beyond then. If the next primary TV/streaming contract is even in the same stratosphere as the deal MLS signed with Apple ($2.5bn over 10 years), then player salaries could rise dramatically as a result. So two-year deals may be the most that players want to agree to in the upcoming offseason, and there could be a raft of one-year contracts a year after that.
To wrap up an additional technicality alongside Atkins's extension, the Mystics can protect her additional years despite already being at the limit of six protected deals because one of the existing six is Atkins herself. It's extra years on one of the six, rather than an independent seventh. Because Washington had the foresight to only protect the first year of Shatori Walker-Kimbrough's two-year deal signed last offseason, they also gain back an extra slot once we hit 2024. At that point only Atkins, Sykes and Hines-Allen will be under protected deals, so they'd have a protected slot to offer free agents even if Delle Donne and Cloud extend or re-sign on guaranteed money. The 2024 offseason planning is already well underway around the league, as the Atkins extension illustrates.
Lineup Minutiae
There was another roster move this week in amongst the various 7-day deals and Atkins's extension, which saw the Seattle Storm agreeing a buyout with Croatian guard Ivana Dojkić and releasing her. The 'divorce agreement' figure made sense as the Storm essentially paid her out until the date she left, as if they were cutting her from a non-guaranteed contract (we're past the mid-point of the season, so all regular contracts are protected at this point).
However, there's still plenty of parsing to do here. The Storm could've waved her off to prepare for her upcoming season in Europe - the reason given for her leaving - and simply suspended her. That would've stopped her cash payments, so cost them the same amount, but allowed them to retain her rights at the end of the season. They already had the cap space left to sign someone into the roster spot that's been opened up by her departure (the same spot that would've been opened by suspending her), so the buyout wasn't necessary for that. They also haven't rushed to fill the spot anyway, suggesting they didn't have anyone standing by that they particularly wanted to add to the roster. The general view seems to be that the Storm had decided they just didn't like her enough as a player to hold on to her, but the rights would have cost them nothing. Teams have held on to the rights to players for years on end despite having no interest in ever bringing them back, because you never know when you might need to throw something into a trade or another team might be interested in the player. And Dojkić is only 25. There's every chance that she could be a much better player in a few years' time.
Dojkić had a strange season in Seattle. She worked her way into the starting lineup, ahead of young Australian Jade Melbourne and the more veteran options on the Storm roster. But then in July her minutes began dwindling even while she was still starting games, and Seattle lost 11 out of 12. Winning shouldn't be the priority for the Storm this year, but even while in the midst of a rebuild, teams don't tend to like just living through lots of losing, and coaches tend to get worried that their jobs are in danger. So Dojkić got benched, the Storm leaned more into their vets while picking up a few wins, and her minutes fell away to nothing.
Even so, there still aren't many reasons to cut Dojkić rather than suspend her. The only semi-decent one I can come up with is that the buyout creates an additional $15,707 in cap space. If the Storm aren't going to fill that 12th roster spot for the rest of the season, that leaves them with $34,750 in total remaining space. They could use all of that to give a Time-Off Bonus to Jewell Loyd in the hope that it encourages her to stay in the offseason (or even to sign an extension before the current season ends). You can't make one conditional on the other, but giving someone 35k isn't going to hurt how they feel about you. If giving up Dojkić's rights took Loyd from, say, a 50% chance of re-signing to a 51% chance, the Storm would probably think it was worth it.
On a more general note for Seattle, it's unfortunate how they've become more competent and competitive recently only by leaning in to more veteran lineups. Whitcomb replacing Dojkić was only one element, alongside the increasing reliance on Williams (who's only 26 but might not return) and additional minutes for Mercedes Russell. At a time in the season where you'd like to see additional opportunities for the youngsters, it took an injury to Williams to open up a starting spot for Jordan Horston and occasional rotation minutes for Melbourne. I thoroughly understand how losing can be painful and grow tiresome, but the development and analysis of their young players are more important than 2023 wins and losses.
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Definitely appreciate your side eye look at the moves Seattle's front office has made...