WNBA Dissected: Stock Up, Stock Down
We take a look at who may have made themselves money and who may have lost some heading into 2022 free agency in the WNBA
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
The nature of sport is that we're always looking forwards. Only a handful of teams have realistic championship ambitions in any given year, so everyone else is trying to build for the future, hoping for next year or even beyond that. As a result, offseason events like free agency and the draft often seem to draw more interest and attention than the actual games. That's where the hope lies for those future seasons, and in those unwritten years anyone could contend.
However, future possibilities both for teams and individuals are also being built in these regular-season games. So with WNBA games only just back underway, let's take a look at the upcoming free agents who've raised or lowered their stock this season, and potentially made themselves a significant amount of cash along the way. Or given it away.
Seattle Storm
Up: Mercedes Russell
Down: Jordin Canada
The raw counting stats don't blow you away with Russell, and never have. She's taking less than five shots per game this year, has a season-high of 12 points, and just generally doesn't jump out at you on the floor. But she fits, and she makes this Storm team better. They don't need her to be spectacular, they need her to be solid defensively, rebound, and finish when given the opportunity. That's precisely what she's done. When you look a little deeper into the numbers, you see a player with the best on-court/off-court net rating on the Storm, reflecting what we all saw at the start of the season with Seattle. They tried Candice Dupree next to Breanna Stewart, and then looked at Ezi Magbegor. Dupree didn't work at all, and despite flashes of excellence Magbegor still looks raw. Everything settled when Russell arrived from overseas and solidified their center position.
Jordin Canada, meanwhile, has been less of a stabilizing factor. It feels like we've been waiting for more genuine signs of growth from her for the entire length of her rookie scale contract. There have always been good elements - she's quick, exciting, active defensively and moves the ball around - but the negatives haven't dissipated. Primary among that is her jump shot, which hasn't developed and in some ways has regressed. She’s shooting 37% from the field this year, barely takes any threes and when she does averages 18% for her career. Defenses leave her alone on the perimeter and she hesitates, because she knows better than anyone else that history suggests that if she takes that shot, it's a win for the defense. The hesitation makes her more likely to miss, and that spiral becomes hard to escape. The Storm have stuck with her, but with Epiphanny Prince as a frequent fallback option as the primary ball handler.
In terms of contracts, Seattle has bigger fish to fry before they worry about either Russell or Canada. Part of the reason there were so many changes last offseason was because they knew this year was coming, with Stewart, Jewell Loyd and Sue Bird all out of contract. Bird might retire but has certainly looked good enough to continue if she wants to. All three are obvious supermax players and Seattle won't want them going anywhere. Then you get to the role players. It feels like they've been hoping Canada would slide in as Bird's successor since they drafted her, but the lack of development has to be concerning. Spreading the floor around Stewart and Loyd is important for their offense, and she simply doesn't do that. The positive to that is that she might be cheaper to keep. The large sums of money that teams have committed to Danielle Robinson in previous years shows that non-shooting point guards can still get paid, but the high-end contract might not be on offer elsewhere. Performance this season would suggest they should prioritize Russell over Canada anyway, but it'll also be interesting to see what sort of deals are out there for Russell as well. Defensive players with limited scoring numbers tend to draw less interest in free agency but Russell, her agent and the Storm all know how vital she's been to them (and that Magbegor might not be ready to take over just yet). She'll be looking for something in the bracket that Natalie Achonwa got from Minnesota last year (three years, around $160,000 per year) while Canada may have to settle for significantly less and continue to prove herself.
Chicago Sky
Up: Kahleah Copper
Down: Diamond DeShields
Once again, look at the raw numbers and the difference between these two doesn't jump off the page. Copper rebounds a little more, DeShields has slightly better assist numbers. Copper's scoring a little better, but both have been poor from outside. But this is about trajectory. Drafted three years ago in the lottery, DeShields has always looked like a star in waiting, only without the consistent production and development to back it up. She has all the physical tools to be a dominant presence at both ends of the floor but after a stilted and injury-affected season in the bubble last year, this season hasn't seen the bounce-back Chicago (and many WNBA fans) would've liked. There are still flashes of her talent, but they're less frequent than in her first two seasons, rather than more common.
Drafted two years earlier with a lot less fanfare, Copper has taken a different route to her current position. After four years of promise but only moderate production, James Wade took a bit of a gamble on her two years ago with an expensive contract, but one that she's gone on to prove she was probably worth. When DeShields was unavailable last year Copper stepped up and suggested she could be just as good, and with both playing together this year opinions are now divided on which would be the preferred option:
The Sky won't necessarily have to choose between them, but they might. The roster was built to lead towards this season, with Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson all impending free agents as well. With Candace Parker and Azura Stevens already under contract the salary cap could make it hard to keep everyone. DeShields and Copper will both get paid somewhere, because athletic two-way wings in their mid-twenties who still have the potential to break out and take another leap don't grow on trees. But whichever team pays DeShields will be taking more of a gamble than they would've liked. Two years ago, this didn't even look like it would be a debate.
Phoenix Mercury
Up: Uh, Sophie Cunningham, maybe?
Down: Kia Nurse
In yet another move favoring veterans over youth, Phoenix took something of a gamble last offseason, trading two first round picks for Kia Nurse and Megan Walker. Nurse was coming off one of the worst offensive seasons in WNBA history, but the idea was that she'd flourish in a supporting role where she could be more selective offensively. It hasn't really worked. Her shooting numbers have rebounded slightly but only up to 33% from the field, which would be dismal if it wasn't next to the 27% from last year in her career stats tables. She's at least flirting with league average from three, but that's the least you expect from a wing playing off Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi.
The other issue for Nurse getting paid - and one of the elements that made the trade troubling at the time - is that Phoenix has no cap space. The seven players currently under contract for next season would leave $246,938 in space, and four players at the absolute league minimum for 2022 costs $241,884. That's the minimum for players with 0-2 Years of Service in the WNBA. After four seasons in the league, Nurse's minimum is higher at $72,141, and wouldn't fit. They'd have to trade someone or cut a non-guaranteed contract like Kia Vaughn or Megan Walker just to fit Nurse at her absolute minimum price. Unless someone retires (not mentioning any names, Taurasi fans).
None of that stops anyone else from paying Nurse, of course, and she'll probably still have suitors. The reputation from her college days still lingers and as with DeShields people will pay for the potential breakout, even if there haven't been many signs of it coming. But any team going too far into six-digit territory, especially if they guarantee any of it, would be taking a significant gamble on Nurse. The production and consistency just hasn't been there since she arrived in the WNBA.
Cunningham is listed largely because of the lack of 'Up' candidates in Phoenix. The Mercury didn't take up her fourth-year option so she'll be an unrestricted free agent, and she's had some productive moments when given a chance by Sandy Brondello this season (with significantly better offensive numbers than Nurse). At the very least she'll be in someone's training camp next year, and someone might even take the chance of offering her a little more money to make sure it's not Phoenix's.
Others to keep an eye on
Up: Courtney Williams, Riquna Williams, Sylvia Fowles, Tina Charles, Myisha Hines-Allen
In amongst the craziness in Atlanta this year, Courtney Williams hasn't been hyper-efficient but she's continued to prove herself as a star scoring wing. There have also been a lot more threes this year, even if the volume of long-twos is still a little too high. She'll be getting the max somewhere, and the Dream may well core her to make certain that it's in Atlanta.
It's been a quiet year for Riquna Williams, but that's a positive. Nothing in the news off the court, just solid and consistent play at both ends of the floor, proving that she can be a supporting wing player without needing to dominate the ball. She took a low-end salary to play with the Aces, probably partly to chase a ring but also because there may not have been many better offers out there. Once they take care of their stars there may not be much more available in Las Vegas next year, but there should be bigger deals out there for her if she wants them.
Fowles and Charles are obviously WNBA stars and their stock was plenty high already. They're on this list because both are impending unrestricted free agents and both are currently playing on sub-max deals. Charles accepted less than the max in Washington partly because of their cap situation, and partly because a couple of years in New York suggested she might be declining. A bounce-back season that has her in MVP conversations means her agent will be looking for max money again next year unless she really wants to do the Mystics a favor. Fowles is still on the last year of a deal from the old CBA, which means she's been significantly underpaid this year at $117,894. After their free agent splashes this year and with Napheesa Collier's next contract in mind for 2023, the Lynx don't have a huge amount of space to work with, but it should be enough. At 35 years old there may not be a lot of years on her new deal, but she's still a max player.
Hines-Allen is interesting not because she's had a great season - it's been interrupted by injury, and something of a return to earth after last year's breakout - but because she's a restricted free agent who might be available. As I went into when hypothetically trading her in last week's column, the Mystics won't have much cap space to play with assuming Charles re-signs (and especially if Emma Meesseman returns as well). So Hines-Allen is the rare talent coming off her rookie-scale contract who might be obtainable via a simple offer sheet.
Down: Tiffany Hayes, Shekinna Stricklen, Maria Vadeeva, Rachel Banham
I don't mean this as any kind of knock on Hayes's play - when she was available she was very good this season in Atlanta, and one of the people mentioned (again) as a snub around All-Star voting. The problem is that she's always played with an element of reckless abandon. Flying to the rim, drawing fouls, crashing to the ground before bouncing back up to carry on playing was her signature move. However, she turns 32 next month and the injuries and missed games are becoming more common. That's going to make her next contract - assuming it comes with guaranteed money - more of a gamble. There'll still be offers out there for her, both back in Atlanta and elsewhere, but maybe either at a little less than expected, or with less of a guarantee. Father Time is undefeated.
Stricklen's deal in Atlanta hasn't worked out at all. From this vantage point she's looked out of shape for most of her time there, and most importantly the three-point accuracy that made her valuable in Connecticut has faded away along with her playing time. If she's in the league at all next year it'll be on a minimum deal, and even that looks unlikely at the moment.
WNBA fans who don't watch overseas play have probably started to forget what Maria Vadeeva looks like. She hasn't been seen in the US since 2019, and despite the Sparks keeping her on their cap as a temporarily suspended player this year it doesn't look like she'll be showing up to play. She's out of contract at the end of the year, but LA will retain her exclusive rights. Successful international players in that position have been known to ask for more money in order to turn up - always with the fallback position of "well I'll just stay home then" - but after staying away this year LA would appear to be in the stronger position. She'll likely have to show up for at least one full season and prove herself in the WNBA before earning much more than the minimum.
Banham's an interesting case, because the Lynx clearly like her and we still see the flashes of her talent. Something like once a month she'll have a stretch where she hits a series of shots and everyone gets excited. But that doesn't wipe away the fact that Minnesota improved dramatically this season when they added Layshia Clarendon, because the combination of Banham and Crystal Dangerfield wasn't cutting it at point guard for the Lynx. They'll now have to find money for Clarendon if they want to keep her, plus they'll be hoping for Aerial Powers, Rennia Davis and maybe Cecilia Zandalasini to deepen their wing rotation. There may not be room for Banham any more in Minnesota, and while there will probably be camp offers elsewhere, that's probably all that they'll be.
It's not easy clinging on to one of those 144 spots.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
This was great! Lots of contract situations I hadn’t considered.