Let's make a deal: Hypothetical WNBA Expansion Draft trades

As the Golden State Valkyries expansion draft approaches, we conceive some trades that could be part of the process.

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!

Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?

---

In my article on Wednesday projecting each WNBA team's protected lists and the resulting Golden State Valkyries picks in the upcoming expansion draft, I promised to bring you some more exciting alternatives. Some deals that would make the expansion draft reveal on Dec. 6 hypothetically more interesting. But this is hard. Before we get into the meat of these ideas, here are some general points:

I said this in the last article, but this is such an awkward time to be having an expansion draft, and that affects trade possibilities even more. We're a year away from the majority of the league being simultaneous free agents, due to the new broadcast deal and (hopefully) new CBA. So even if Golden State wanted to avoid the typical route of expansion teams - start off absolutely dreadful, get good draft picks, build from there - it doesn't make much sense to mortgage the farm for someone who'll be a free agent in a year anyway. The core system means teams can maintain control of some veteran superstars to a certain extent, but in a year's time a lot of teams are going to have more than one star hitting unrestricted free agency at the same time. Each team only has one core spot, even assuming that rule doesn't get eliminated or restructured in the new CBA. So how much can you justify giving up for a player who could be available for nothing in 12 months?

According to my information, the existing 12 teams do not have the official protected lists from around the league, and won't be given them. Obviously, they can make even more educated guesses than all of us who've been writing about this process in the media. Also, everyone in this league talks to each other, so they already have a pretty good idea of how most players are valued. But on some level, the other teams don't know exactly who's available. So, for example, Las Vegas could guess that Kayla Thornton has been left unprotected by New York and call Golden State to try to work a trade to get the Valkyries to pick Thornton for them - but they don't even know for sure if Thornton's available in the expansion draft. So the onus is heavily on Golden State to build deals if they want them. As a side note, this is probably also part of why you haven't seen all the official lists anywhere in the media yet. The fewer people that have access to them, the easier it is to prevent leaks.

One other basic element that makes constructing trades difficult is that most of the players other teams would want are on teams that Golden State would probably like to pick from - but you can only take one player from each team. To return to the example above, if someone wanted the Valkyries to take Thornton for them, that's their New York pick gone. No Han Xu, no Marine Johannès, no Marquesha Davis, and no Thornton. So there's an additional opportunity cost to a deal like that. Also, when looking at teams that might want to make a deal to protect their existing roster rather than acquire someone extra, the most obvious options seem like the teams with lots of players they wouldn't want to lose. New York, maybe Minnesota, even Washington - the teams that still had lots of pickable players left over after protecting six. But viewed another way, those are the teams that might think they can afford to lose one of those many options and it isn't worth giving anything up in a trade. The hypothetical team most likely to want to make a deal is one with seven specific good players, all of whom they desperately want to retain, rather than one that has four or five core starters and a big collection of decent backups in place behind them.

But enough waffle, let's look at some possibilities.

The Alternative Path

Not an actual deal this one, just an illustration of how much is up in the air. Using my exact same protection lists, instead of the 12-player roster I suggested at the end of Wednesday's article, the Valkyries could take:

Laeticia Amihere

Rachel Banham

Veronica Burton

Carla Leite

Damiris Dantas

Megan Gustafson

Rae Burrell

Dorka Juhász

Marine Johannès

Charisma Osborne

Mackenzie Holmes

Elena Delle Donne

Obviously I don't think that's as good or I would've produced that list in the previous article, but there's not a whole hell of a lot in it. Some talent, plenty of question marks, some draws for the fans and a bunch of youth that you hope can still turn into something. Just like the last list.

Not your typical expansion team

Las Vegas Aces guard Kelsey Plum (10) drives to the basket as Connecticut Sun forward DeWanna Bonner (24) defends. Photo credit: Chris Poss

This suggestion is based on two simultaneous hypotheticals: that Kelsey Plum has told the Aces that she'd like to go back to California (and that's why she didn't extend her contract, as has become typical procedure in Las Vegas), and that the Valkyries have no interest in being bad, even for a season. It's also a trade that now couldn't be completed until late January, after Vegas have cored Plum themselves (because the protected lists have already been submitted, and Plum is presumably on theirs - and you likely can't trade the right to core a player, even when that right is moving through an expansion draft).

So it's something like Kelsey Plum and the No. 16 pick in the upcoming college draft for the No. 5 pick, plus some pieces. I'm thinking Stefanie Dolson as a center who can hit threes that Becky Hammon might be more willing to play than Megan Gustafson, and Lindsay Allen as a guard who can help prevent Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young from having to play 40 minutes per night. The Valkyries would also agree to leave Kate Martin and Elizabeth Kitley alone when taking their Aces pick in the expansion draft so that Las Vegas can retain some extra youth.

I wouldn't do this. It's a lot for Plum, who's turned 30 and might not look quite as good without all that Aces talent around her. That No. 5 pick could be a key piece to build around for the future, and Plum might well be available for free if Golden State wait a year. I would happily suck for a season and hope for the No. 1 pick in 2026. But the No. 5 is also right around where WNBA drafts often start to get shaky, and you might end up with a backup or even a bust. This possibility is also grounded in the belief that the Valkyries would be targeting an immediate free agent splash with veterans. Bringing Nneka Ogwumike back to California, for example, maybe with DeWanna Bonner or Gabby Williams on the wing or Brionna Jones in the paint. This plan is "we don't need youth because all the good players are going to want to come here anyway".

Also, just in case none of this works, they haven't let their 2026 picks come anywhere near this discussion. If they do suck in 2025, their lottery balls are still secure.

No thanks

Due to a host of other deals, Connecticut don't have a lot to offer in small trades. But if their six protectees follow the list in my article, I think you offer Golden State the No. 25 pick to leave Veronica Burton alone. She was a nice fit for the Sun after they picked her up last year, and players picked in that range rarely stick on the roster. And for similar reasons, I turn that deal down if I'm Golden State. Just take Burton and see if you ultimately like her as much as they do. The pick isn't much of an opportunity cost.

That one we'll do

Minnesota, on the other hand, have an actual first-round pick to work with. I think they offer to swap their No. 11 pick for the Valkyries' No. 17 in return for Golden State agreeing not to take certain players. Cheryl Reeve likes Dorka Juhász, which isn't a common achievement for young posts. They know how good Jessica Shepard can be when available and healthy (albeit that hasn't been all that common). And Cecilia Zandalasini was a nice fit with the Lynx after finally returning to the league. Meanwhile, Alissa Pili never really cracked the rotation or earned Reeve's trust in her rookie season, but she could be an intriguing prospect for the Valkyries.

Golden State get to say they've obtained an extra first-round pick in their inaugural season, and Minnesota get to keep everyone they really want from their core group. They might even be willing to just give up the No. 11 pick for that straight up, without getting No. 17 back.

It's Lyssa Time

If the Indiana Fever had retained head coach Christie Sides, a NaLyssa Smith deal looked almost inevitable this offseason. Sides just didn't trust her, and seemed to much prefer veteran options like Temi Fagbenle and Damiris Dantas to fill the paint (and play some defense) alongside Aliyah Boston. The switch to Stephanie White at head coach could change things, as she might still want to work with the 2023 No. 2 pick and develop what is still clearly a talented basketball player. But what if the Fever organisation watched those games last season and have simply decided that Smith is a bad fit alongside Boston and behind Caitlin Clark? That they need someone who might be less talented in a vacuum, but is more capable of providing what they need in that spot. Is there a Smith deal to be made?

This is the kind of player I'd want to deal for if I'm Golden State. Smith is young, still has as yet unfulfilled potential, and is under contract control for at least a couple more years (she'd be a restricted free agent after the 2025 season, barring the new CBA altering the rules). But they'd have to present a deal that would be worth Indiana's time. The Fever could just as easily wait until January and February to see what they can get from any other team around the league. If I'm Indiana, what I want is a veteran who can defend alongside Boston, plus enough so that I don't feel like I'm getting screwed while giving up on Smith when she's still only 24.

Kayla Thornton looks like a nice fit to me for her defense, attitude, leadership, and ability to play either forward spot in different lineups. But I'd be reluctant to do that if I'm Golden State because it would mean not getting anyone from New York's roster themselves. Two other players I'd be interested in as the Fever would be Elizabeth Williams and Jessica Shepard. Williams is known for her defense and wouldn't need the ball to help Indiana, but is capable enough inside to catch Clark's passes and finish. Shepard prioritized Europe last year and isn't the same level of defender, but has been playing some great stuff overseas and could be a good secondary facilitator for the Fever. She'd also be returning to the state where she spent a couple of years at Notre Dame, so she might be happier with the move than some players would be. Williams signed an extension in Chicago and has likely been protected by the Sky, so that would require some kind of complicated three-way trade (assuming the league would allow that at all, without waiting until January/February). Shepard's rights may well be available simply as Golden State's expansion pick from Minnesota (barring the trade I suggested above).

Even after a rough 2024 season for Smith, and the fact that these other players might be a better fit for their team, you'd want more than that if you're the Fever. Smith was considered a potential star not long ago. So I think it would take at least one more piece alongside Shepard (or Williams, if you can get a separate deal done with Chicago to obtain her). Maybe Kate Martin to make Clark extra happy and implode #WNBATwitter? Karlie Samuelson to add the Samuelson sister who'd actually help the Fever significantly more? Or the easy switch would be swapping Golden State's No. 5 pick for Indiana's No. 8, jumping the Fever to a stronger drafting position but not hurting the Valkyries too much.

If Smith is going to move this offseason, I actually think it's more likely to happen in a couple of months when there are more options. But I'd at least investigate the possibility if I'm Golden State.

Picks!

This is more a general statement of what I think Golden State should be looking for than a specific deal. If anyone wants to give them a first-round pick, whether in 2025 or 2026, for almost any player/move related to this expansion draft, they should strongly consider it. Just like when a team rebuilds, you want to stockpile as many useful assets as possible - which means first-round picks and young talent. Obviously not all first-round picks are created equal. But to go back to my earlier example, if Las Vegas wanted to offer their 2026 first-rounder in return for taking Kayla Thornton for them, you'd have to consider it. Maybe you value Han or Johannès or Davis or even Thornton herself more highly than what is likely to be a late-first, but there's always the chance that A'ja Wilson gets hurt. Then maybe you fall into something like the No. 6 pick instead of the No. 11 you might expect.

That's also a pretty rare example. Almost every team in the league apart from the Aces and Liberty have a chance to be ordinary next season. So if the Fever are desperate for Karlie Samuelson or Dallas continue to value their own players higher than anyone else, listen hard and milk them for every worthwhile pick you can get.

EDD Deal?

This is one of those situations where you really need additional inside information. Does Elena Delle Donne still want to play basketball? Where is she physically, both relative to the injuries/illnesses that have plagued much of her career and just in terms of staying in physical condition to play professional sport? Is there still a shortlist of teams she'd want to play for, or would she return to the WNBA anywhere?

If someone can get straight answers to all of that, even at 35 years old, WNBA teams will be interested. If they believe she'll want to play again, Washington will have to have considered including her on their protected list, because the value from a Delle Donne trade might still be greater than just retaining a Sika Koné or Jade Melbourne. And if the Mystics didn't protect her - especially considering the mediocre alternatives likely to be available with the one Golden State UFA pick - she has to be a consideration both for the Valkyries and other teams around the league who might want to deal for her.

A big-name player like Delle Donne would be a nice bonus to help launch the Valkyries themselves, if she's willing to play for them. But if they were taking her for a deal we get into the thorny issue of what she's worth. At her peak, Delle Donne was a WNBA MVP and one of the best players in the world, but even then her teams were always on tenterhooks hoping she would stay on the floor. At 35 and not having played basketball since a fractured 2023 season in Washington, teams will want her but not want to give up too much in the process. Maybe you get that 2026 first-round pick from Las Vegas and an extra one of their backups? Phoenix don't have a lot to trade, but would probably hand over this year's No. 12 pick if Golden State were at all excited by that (they shouldn't be). Seattle have this year's No. 9 and two first-rounders next year, and could be looking to replace Nneka Ogwumike if she walks away as a free agent.

Any of these deals might well have to wait until January/February when the Valkyries could core Delle Donne themselves, as trading cored rights might not be allowed at this time of year (it's a weird niche situation). But regardless of how it plays out, unless someone surprising has been left available, she remains perhaps the most intriguing possibility with that one UFA selection.

On Dec. 6, we'll finally get to find out exactly what choices the Valkyries have made, and whether any deals have been completed to spice up the proceedings.

---

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.