Weekly Roundup: The Gold Mamba Strikes Again
Highlights from Sunday’s pair of Game 1s
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
Welcome to the WNBA semifinals, and boy, are we in for a treat if Sunday’s pair of semifinal games are any indication of what we can expect during the rest of each series! In two thrilling contests that came down to the wire, both lower-seeded teams, Connecticut and Seattle, claimed road victories in Game 1.
The Sun compiled arguably their most impressive defensive performance of the season in Sunday evening’s 68-63 road win over Chicago, limiting the Sky to their lowest scoring output in 14 months. Kudos to Candace Parker for one of the most complete games in WNBA history, becoming the first player with at least 15 points, 15 boards, five blocks, and five assists in a playoff game by virtue of her 19-point, 18-rebound, six-block, and five-assist masterpiece (by the way, she also owns the only two regular-season 15/15/5/5 games). But somehow, it just wasn’t enough. Did Chicago, who was lights out from the field against Connecticut during the regular season, simply have an off shooting night? Or did the Sun defense solve the mystery of a Sky offense that averaged nearly 90 points per contest over their six meetings before Sunday (all Sun losses)? My apologies for giving you the equivalent of the Magic 8 Ball’s “Ask Again Later” reply, but more than a one-game sample is needed to definitively answer such questions.
It bears repeating that these series are going to be a blast to watch. I know, I sound like a kid on Christmas, but the teams in each series are so evenly matched that it feels blasphemous to even characterize Sunday’s Game 1s as upsets. Chicago swept its four-game regular-season series with Connecticut this year, but 1) the four games were all decided by single digits (more on that below), and 2) it was the Sun that had the league’s best net rating this season. Prior to Game 1 on Sunday, FiveThirtyEight effectively had the series as a coin flip. On the other side of the bracket, the Aces and Storm were neck and neck in net rating during the regular season, ranking No. 3 and No. 4, respectively.
We’ve touched on the Sky-Sun series, so now let’s dive into Game 1 of the other semifinal series, a classic that saw a quartet of former No. 1 draft picks propel Seattle to a critical road victory.
Loyd’s late-game heroics lift Seattle to Game 1 win
If someone from the future told me before Game 1’s semifinal matchup between Seattle and Las Vegas Sunday afternoon that the Storm would finish with 76 points, I would have hightailed it to my nearest sportsbook and placed a bet on Las Vegas to win. The Aces had the league’s top offense this year, dropping over 90 points per game, and finished the 2022 regular season with the second-best offensive rating in WNBA history. Just twice all season had Las Vegas’ high-octane offense failed to score at least 76 points. However, a combination of stifling defense and Jewell Loyd’s late-game heroics led Seattle to a 76-73 victory in Game 1 of the best-of-five series.
Loyd was sensational down the stretch, scoring 10 of her game-high 26 points in the fourth quarter. In fact, the Gold Mamba either scored or assisted on all but two of Seattle’s 16 points in the final frame, most notably a three-pointer to put Seattle ahead 73-71 with 1:45 remaining and a stepback jumper over the outstretched hand of A’ja Wilson to extend her team’s lead to 76-73 with 34.6 seconds left.
“I’ve taken that shot millions of times,” Loyd said to ESPN’s Holly Rowe as she explained what was going through her mind during that last-minute shot. “A’ja’s a very hard person to go at; she’s very long. So, as long as I held my follow through, I thought it was a good shot.”
Las Vegas struggled to find its offensive rhythm in the early going, committing nearly as many turnovers (four) as made field goals (five) in the first quarter, resulting in a 26-15 Storm advantage at the end of the quarter. That’s a credit to Seattle, a defense that held MVP candidate A’ja Wilson to a season-low eight points. The Aces eventually found their footing. What ensued was sensational shotmaking by both teams, whether it was Breanna Stewart’s (24 points and six rebounds) fadeaway jumpers over 6-foot-3 Kiah Stokes or Chelsea Gray’s version of the fadeaway, one that involves contorting your body to a 45-degree angle and would send most viewers to the hospital if they dared replicate it.
The Aces grabbed their first lead of the game on a Riquna Williams triple with 6:15 remaining in the fourth, blowing the roof off of Michelob Ultra Arena. However, Seattle clamped down on defense during the remainder of the game, limiting one of the best offenses in league history to just seven points and forcing four turnovers over the final 6:15. To be sure, the Storm were fortunate that Kelsey Plum (20 points), a 42% three-point shooter on 7.5 attempts per game this season, missed two pretty good opportunities from beyond the arc in the game’s final 35 seconds. The second of those was a beautifully designed set out of a Las Vegas timeout that gave Plum a decent last-second look at a game-tying three. In the end, Seattle’s defense ruled the day, holding the Aces to a tie for their second-lowest scoring output of the season.
Seattle and Las Vegas shot near-identical percentages from the field (41.3% for the Storm and 41.2% for the Aces). If you incorporate each team’s 11 free-throw attempts, the Aces actually had a slight edge in true shooting percentage, 50.1% to 47.6%. Despite this edge, Seattle had seven more field-goal attempts than Las Vegas. That’s primarily due to the Storm’s 7-to-4 advantage on the offensive glass and committing four fewer turnovers than Las Vegas. The former was the result of Tina Charles' dominance on the boards - five of her playoff franchise record 18 rebounds were on the offensive end. Of course, taking care of the ball is a team effort, but no one was more adept at doing so while also creating opportunities for her teammates than Sue Bird. The league’s career leader in assists had 12 of them on Sunday without committing a turnover, the third player to accomplish that feat in WNBA playoff history. In her three playoff games this year, Bird has compiled 24 assists and just one turnover.
For further evidence of Seattle’s Game 1 win being a total team effort, look no further than Steph Talbot. The Storm were missing the playmaking ability and defensive prowess of Gabby Williams (out with a concussion) on Sunday. Just how valuable has Williams been to Seattle this season? When she’s on the floor, the Storm outscore opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions. When she’s on the bench, opponents outscore Seattle by 3.3 points per 100 possessions. That’s who Talbot was tasked with replacing in the starting lineup Sunday afternoon. Talbot rose to the occasion, scoring seven points to go along with a steal and a block during Seattle’s tone-setting 26-15 first quarter. She also notched a key assist in the fourth quarter, setting up Loyd for the aforementioned go-ahead three-pointer.
Can Las Vegas reclaim home-court advantage, or will Seattle take a commanding 2-0 lead back to Climate Pledge Arena? We’ll find out Wednesday night, when Game 2 tips off at Michelob Ultra Arena at 10 p.m. Eastern.
Stat of the Week: Quantity versus accuracy
Chicago and Connecticut had a fascinating regular-season series and are primed for a blockbuster of a semifinal series. You wouldn’t think so at first glance, as Chicago swept all four meetings. Digging a bit deeper, you’ll notice that all four games were decided by single digits, with the average margin of victory just 4.5 points. That’s the smallest average winning margin between two playoff teams during the regular season this year.
Close games are fun; therefore, the Sky-Sun playoff series is poised to be exciting. Q.E.D., right? Well, yes, but analyzing the results of those four regular-season games also reveals an interesting subplot. Connecticut attempted an average of 19.5 more field-goal attempts than Chicago during their regular-season series. That’s a massive difference, so how did this happen? The Sun accomplished this by doing what they do best - dominating the offensive glass and forcing turnovers. Connecticut averaged 9.5 more offensive rebounds and 6.5 fewer turnovers than Chicago during their four regular-season games.
With so many more opportunities to score, how on earth did the Sky win all four games? Well, by doing what they do best - shooting better. Chicago, the WNBA’s leader in field-goal percentage and effective field-goal percentage, shot 55.5% from the field across those four games (versus 43.7% for the Sun). That’s the highest field-goal percentage by any team against another over the course of the regular season.
Quantity versus accuracy: which will prevail in the playoffs? While Game 1 featured a departure from this narrative (Chicago shot just 35.3% from the field), it’s a question that could decide whether Chicago will make its second straight Finals or if Connecticut will dethrone the defending champs.
WNBA schedule this week (All times Eastern)
Here is a complete listing of this week’s games, start times, and where you can catch the action.
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
On last week’s Courtside, Gabe Ibrahim and Christy Winters-Scott recapped the first-round series, previewed the semifinal series, and talked about postseason awards, including a spirited discussion about the definition of MVP.
In Part 2 of her offseason check-in of the Pac-12, Kim Doss previewed the 2022-23 campaigns for Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, and UCLA.
In this week’s WNBA Dissected, Richard Cohen previewed the Aces-Storm semifinal series and touched on the benefits of series play in the first round of this year’s playoffs as well as the problems with the 2-1 format.
Other recommended content
From her formative years in Poway, California to her current tenure with the Las Vegas Aces, Kelsey Plum has been obsessed with winning. For ESPN, Katie Barnes explored how this fixation has influenced Plum’s growth both on and off the court.
For the Chicago Sun-Times, Annie Costabile discussed Candace Parker’s struggles from long distance during the Sky’s first-round series versus the Liberty and how the two-time MVP deals with shooting slumps.
For The Next, Arie Graham reflected on the Dallas Wings 2022 season - one that included a playoff berth despite 10 different starting lineups throughout the year - and what the future holds for the second youngest team in the W.
From Hong Kong to Brazil and several locales in between, fans from all over the world have flocked to the United States to watch Sue Bird in her final WNBA season. The Athletic’s Chantel Jennings told several of these fans’ stories - how they became fans of Bird and the impact she’s had on their lives.
Trivia question of the week
First, here’s the answer to last week’s trivia question:
Who was the last WNBA team to lose its first game in a postseason and then go on to win the title that same year?
Answer: The 2012 Indiana Fever
And now, here’s this week’s question:
Who are the only two players in WNBA history to rank in the top 10 in career playoff points, assists, and rebounds?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.