2023-24 WNBA Offseason Guides: Minnesota Lynx

Our 2023-24 WNBA offseason guides continue with the one team that pushed a higher seed to a deciding game in the first round of the playoffs, the Minnesota Lynx

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Previously published 2023-24 Offseason Guides:
Seattle Storm
Phoenix Mercury
Indiana Fever
Los Angeles Sparks
Chicago Sky
Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream

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Photo Credit: Chris Poss

2023 record: 19-21, eliminated 2-1 in first round by Connecticut

2024 draft picks: The Lynx have all of their own 2024 picks, including a first-rounder that will be No. 7 overall.

Free agents: Aerial Powers (UFA), Natalie Achonwa (UFA), Bridget Carleton (UFA), Rachel Banham (UFA), Lindsay Allen (UFA), Nikolina Milić (Reserved)

Under contract: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Tiffany Mitchell, Jessica Shepard, Diamond Miller, Dorka Juhász

2023 performance: The Lynx weren't really supposed to be as good as they turned out to be in 2023. After a 14-22 season in 2022, the retirement of Sylvia Fowles truly ending their old era, and with Napheesa Collier in her first full season post-pregnancy, this was expected by most to be a rebuilding year. It wouldn't have been a surprise to see them in the lottery for the second year in a row (and that may have quietly been the expected outcome of the season even by their own front office). However, after a rocky 0-6 start, they eventually got rolling. Collier was better than ever, Diamond Miller showed real promise, Dorka Juhász was a very pleasant surprise as a second-round pick, and they even put a scare into Connecticut in the first round of the playoffs. A truly cynical Lynx fan might've been disappointed that they played their way out of that lottery pick, but most will have been more entertained by their team's 2023 season than they were probably expecting heading into it.

All of that said, dig a little bit deeper and the numbers say there is still plenty of work to be done. They finished just short of .500 at 19-21, but by net rating and Pythagorean record were the 10th-best team in the league, above only Phoenix and Seattle. Maybe you credit them for having a talent for winning close games and allowing the defeats to drift away into blowouts, but typically that means they got lucky. More games to allow the league to settle into more realistic positions might've seen the Lynx drop down the standings (although please don't add more regular season games, WNBA). Even though they may have been closer to contention than expected this year, there's still a way to go to get back to where this franchise once was, and they know it.

Offseason finances: I've seen a couple of people question the Kayla McBride extension ($208,000/$205,000 for 2024/25) because of how much it cuts into the potential Lynx spending power in free agency, but even with that on the books they still have plenty of room for shopping. Collier is the only other big contract, with Tiffany Mitchell and Jessica Shepard in the mid-range and Miller and Juhász on rookie-scale deals. That leaves them with six players under contract for a total of $821,258, and therefore $641,942 in cap space. If you add their first-round pick and a base minimum, they'd still have $504,349 left for the final three or four spots. If they can find people worth spending it on, that's enough for two max deals and to top-up a third vet beyond the minimum to tempt them to Minnesota rather than somewhere else.

That would be without re-signing their own free agents like Lindsay Allen, Rachel Banham, Bridget Carleton, Natalie Achonwa or Aerial Powers, but it illustrates the possibilities that are there if they find the right piece (or pieces) to add to the established Collier/Miller/McBride core.

Offseason priorities: Back when they extended McBride, I liked the idea of retaining a very good player who complements pretty much anybody she plays alongside, but it did seem like it was removing them from the conversation for several of the big impending free agents. With McBride, Miller and Collier in established spots at 2/3/4 (maybe 3/4/5 in occasional small lineups), spending big on any kind of perimeter scoring weapon wasn't going to make much sense, either to the Lynx or the player themselves. Then, both Jewell Loyd and Kahleah Copper signed extensions and that immediately seemed like less of an issue.

So if they do try to spend big in free agency, it seems most likely to be at one end or the other of the starting lineup. Both Shepard and Juhász have shown talent (although Shepard's propensity for missing games is concerning), but the Lynx may feel like there's room to upgrade and turn those two into rotation pieces, rather than competing for a starting role. If one of the star bigs on the market is interested - Jonquel Jones? Brionna Jones, if you're willing to wait out her injury? Nneka Ogwumike if fans can forgive the history? - then they'd probably make room.

The other obvious potential spot to target is point guard, where the Lynx have still never really found a path since Lindsay Whalen retired after the 2018 season. However, I'm still not entirely sure whether Cheryl Reeve actually wants to spend money on finding an answer. For several years now she's gone into the year with the question of their lead ballhandler somewhat up in the air, and eventually worked it out - usually with someone on the minimum (or less). This year it was Lindsay Allen, although her injured hand meant she missed the final weeks of the season and the playoffs. But maybe someone like Jordin Canada, Natasha Cloud or even Skylar Diggins-Smith could simplify that spot in Minnesota and give them a stability that they haven't had for some time.

However, Miller is 22 and Collier just turned 27, so they may be looking more for young pieces who can continue to grow as part of their core rather than veterans looking to make them as good as possible immediately. That would suggest maybe Canada or Brionna Jones, but not necessarily any of the other names mentioned so far. Maybe they look to less starry names like Alanna Smith or Rebecca Allen, looking to build more fluid and switchy lineups than were ever possible with Fowles around. They could also throw a big contract at restricted free agent Satou Sabally but I've resisted mentioning her in most of these guides because I assume Dallas would simply match any offer.

I also imagine they'd quite like to bring back several of this year's pieces, as long as they're not too costly. Powers is almost certainly gone given how far she fell down Reeve's rotation (and the general disaster of her expensive contract in Minnesota), but all the others could well return to a team that seemed to come together fairly well this year. It's just a matter of whether the Lynx find someone else worth spending on that means some of the 2023 pieces are pushed out.

Future assets: Minnesota's 2025 picks are untouched at this point, and also haven't been supplemented with anyone else's. They continue to hold the rights to Anna Cruz and Cecilia Zandalasini, but as the years go on it seems increasingly unlikely that we'll see them back in the US again. Last year's No. 12 overall pick Maïa Hirsch may be more likely to appear at some point but remains a raw prospect who could probably use more development overseas.

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