Weekly Roundup: How Connecticut and Seattle Can Force a Game 5
What needs to happen in each series for it to go the distance
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This may sound a little too prisoner of the moment, but is this the best grouping of semifinal series in league history? Each one has a little something for every basketball fan. If you’re a fan of physical, hard-nosed defense (that frankly borders on ugly) with a smidgen of Pistons-Bulls bad blood, then look no further than the Sky-Sun series. That one saw Chicago take a 2-1 lead after a gritty 76-72 victory in Game 3 featuring a down-to-the-wire defensive battle that saw multiple hard (perhaps flagrant) fouls and both teams shoot below 40%. If a more aesthetically pleasing battle is your jam, then the Storm-Aces series is the one for you. In Game 3’s instant classic that saw the two teams combine for 12 points in the final 11.3 seconds, Las Vegas forced overtime on a Jackie Young short-porch bank shot at the buzzer and dominated in the extra period to take a 2-1 series lead.
I want each series to go the full five games. Heck, I want them to go seven, or nine - they’re just that compelling. What needs to happen in order for each series to go the distance? Here are three things that must occur in order for Connecticut and Seattle to travel for series-deciding Game 5s.
Chicago vs. Connecticut
1. Win messy, but clean things up
Connecticut’s mantra this series has been to win messy. The Sun succeeded in Game 1, holding Chicago to its worst scoring output all season (63 points). In Game 3, the Sky scored 76 points on just 37.1% shooting from the field. Entering Game 3, playoff teams that shot 37.1% or worse from the field won only 17.9% of the time (a record of 28-128). Per usual, the Sun also claimed a 10-to-5 edge on the offensive glass. Sounds like a recipe for success, right? Unfortunately for the Sun, they themselves finished the night with a sub-37.1% performance from the field. In itself that’s fine, but Connecticut also lost the turnover battle 17-to-9.
Some were forced by the length of Chicago’s defense; some were careless mental mistakes. The bottom line is the Sky ended up with a 17-to-9 lead in points off turnovers and effectively canceled out the additional opportunities generated by Connecticut’s offensive rebounding advantage, giving Chicago more field-goal attempts for the first time in the teams’ seven meetings this season. These were surprising developments, given that the Sun had committed 4.5 fewer turnovers per game and attempted 15.3 more field goals per game than Chicago in their six previous games. All of this added up to a four-point Chicago win on Sunday.
So yes, win messy if you can, but if that messiness extends to taking care of the ball like it did in Game 3, rest assured that Chicago will be punching its ticket to the Finals come 10 p.m. Eastern tonight.
2. ‘Reward ourselves’
In what surely ranks right up there with Dennis Green’s “They are who we thought they were” and Mike Gundy’s “I’m a man, I’m 40” in the pantheon of coaching rants, Connecticut coach Curt Miller expressed his frustration about his team’s missed layups in a rather unique way.
The Sun were just 16-for-41 (39%) in Game 3 on shots within five feet, including an abysmal 8-for-24 (33%) in the first half. Granted, “make your layups” isn’t the hottest of takes, but this is the definition of low-hanging fruit, particularly for a team like Connecticut that led the league in field-goal attempts within five feet with 27.9 per contest. While it’s possible for the Sun to win despite a subpar shooting night, it’s extraordinarily difficult to keep a high-powered offense like Chicago down for long. The Sky have shot under 40% from the field just five times all season, two of those coming against Connecticut in this series. And yes, maybe the Sun have figured something out defensively and low-scoring, gritty contests will rule the day during the remainder of the series. But if that’s not the case, why not have that necessary extra offense come from your highest percentage shots? Connecticut has proven adept at creating such close-range opportunities all season long, it just needs to execute them.
3. In Jonquel Jones we trust
With 3:37 remaining in the fourth quarter of Game 3 and Connecticut trailing 66-64, Curt Miller subbed out Jonquel Jones for Courtney Williams. Jones wouldn’t reenter the game until the 54.4-second mark when Chicago had extended its lead to 72-66. When asked in the postgame press conference about Jones’ absence during crunch-time, Miller explained that he thought his team would get better spacing on offense with a smaller lineup and Jones on the bench.
Perhaps I’m playing checkers and Miller is playing 3D chess, but it feels like things are being a tad over-engineered when the reigning league MVP misses the majority of crunch time during a playoff game. Granted, Jones had been struggling, and the Connecticut offense no doubt needed an offensive spark on Sunday (and needs one tonight), but the solution isn’t to shy away from utilizing Jonquel Jones. It’s quite the opposite. The Sun’s net rating with her on the court during the regular season was +14.4 points per 100 possessions (and just +4.6 with her on the bench). So, get Jones more touches and trust her to recognize the inevitable double teams and make the right decisions.
Las Vegas vs. Seattle
1. Prevent Chelsea Gray’s dribble penetration, make her uncomfortable, and pray she comes back to earth
I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that Chelsea Gray is having one of the best postseasons in WNBA history. She’s averaging 22.6 points and 7.2 assists during the Aces’ five playoff games to date, but that barely scratches the surface on how important she’s been to the Aces’ postseason success. Her offensive efficiency is off the charts. If the postseason ended today, Gray would have the highest effective field goal percentage (76.8%) and individual offensive rating (an estimated 142 points produced per 100 individual possessions) in a single postseason in WNBA history (minimum five games and 100 minutes played). Taking all of her playoff contributions together this season, Gray has produced 0.43 win shares per 40 minutes. That’s bested only by Maya Moore’s 0.47 win shares per 40 minutes during Minnesota’s 2013 championship run.
So, what can Seattle do? While Gray’s recent unconscious shooting is probably fleeting, her ability to create opportunities for her teammates is a constant. To that end, it’s important to prevent dribble penetration and Gray from getting into the lane. Whether it’s Jewell Loyd, Gabby Williams, or Steph Talbot, this will likely be done by committee. It’s a veritable pick your poison with Gray - give her space, and she’ll knock down the triple; guard her closely, and she’ll slash to the rim or stop on a dime, turn, and pull up for one of her patented fadeaway jumpers. As a defender, I’d imagine you have to go with the former - she shot 34% from long distance during the regular season and is shooting 62.1% in the postseason. You’ve got to hope she regresses to some semblance of a mean if you’re Seattle.
2. Minimize A’ja Wilson’s opportunities down low
A’ja Wilson can score at all three levels - she’s developed a three-point shot, can drain the mid-range jumper, and score down low. However, of those three, she’s by far most effective down low (i.e., within five feet), where she’s averaged nearly five shots per game and hit a whopping 91.3% of those attempts.
If she has the ball on the perimeter, give her space and force her to beat you from long distance. She shot 37.3% from beyond the arc in the regular season; that’s certainly respectable but by no means lights out. If you’re Seattle, would you rather have Wilson get a decent look at the three or have this happen? And if Wilson gets the ball down low, double the 2020 MVP and live with the consequences if the defensive rotations aren’t always quick enough to prevent the open three-point attempt.
3. Stick to what you do best on offense
Whether it be when Las Vegas goes with its smaller lineup or when a pick-and-roll creates the opportunity, there are situations where Breanna Stewart has a mismatch against an Aces defender. That’s great. However, as we saw in Game 2, it can actually disrupt the flow of the Storm’s offense if they use it as a crutch.
So, if you’re Seattle, stick to what you do best on offense: generate good ball movement that produces open opportunities from long distance (where the Storm shot better than anyone in the W during the regular season) and generate fast-break opportunities off of steals or defensive rebounds. And of course, if Stewart has, say, Kelsey Plum pinned on the lower block, exploit that mismatch.
Kahleah Copper’s DoorDash misadventure, the sequel
Kahleah Copper hasn’t had the greatest luck with the food delivery app DoorDash lately. First, there was Calvin, the DoorDash driver who canceled Kahleah Copper’s order from a Brooklyn restaurant while Chicago was in town for its series-deciding game against New York. Now, there’s Lily, the Connecticut-based DoorDash driver turned prankster tasked with delivering Copper food yesterday.
Kahleah, I know DoorDash is a WNBA sponsor and all, but maybe it’s time to try UberEats?
Her Hoop Stats content in case you missed it
On the latest episode of Dice it Up, WNBA.com’s Mark Schindler and Nuts & Bolts Sports’ Stephen Garner joined Dano Mataya and Ice Young to discuss the two semifinal series and what lies ahead in tonight’s Game 4s.
On Courtside, Gabe Ibrahim and Christy Winters-Scott discussed the first two games of each semifinal series and offered their thoughts on A’ja Wilson being awarded Defensive Player of the Year.
What statistics have voters historically valued the most in the MVP race? Ford Higgins, Aaron Barzilai, and I used this information to forecast who will win this year’s top individual prize.
Richard Cohen detailed risky-but-gutsy moves each remaining playoff team could make to help turn each semifinal playoff series in the latest edition of WNBA Dissected.
Are Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson the WNBA’s answer to the NBA’s Bird-Magic rivalry? Alford Corriette outlined the parallels between the two situations and discussed the massive potential benefits of cultivating the A’ja-Stewie rivalry.
Other recommended content
The Athletic’s Chantel Jennings chronicled how a summer spent in northern Minnesota helped Tara VanDerveer gain peace, appreciate the need for balance in life, and possibly kept her from retiring in 2015.
For The New York Times, Mary Pilon explored the treatment of women’s basketball in Russia versus the United States and touched on how the historic underinvestment has exacerbated pay gaps between men’s and women’s athletes.
The Chicago Sun-Times’ Annie Constabile described how the physicality in the Sun-Sky series has occasionally veered into malicious territory.
For Bleacher Report, Scott Polacek spoke with A’ja Wilson about this year’s MVP race, her team’s success this season, and her experience playing under Becky Hammon.
For Yahoo! Sports, Cassandra Negley thoroughly broke down the MVP case for each of the two front-runners: A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart.
Trivia question of the week
First, here’s the answer to last week’s trivia question:
Who are the only two players in WNBA history to rank in the top 10 in career playoff points, assists, and rebounds?
Answer: Tamika Catchings and Candace Parker
And now, here’s this week’s question:
Who is the only player in WNBA history under six feet tall to win regular-season MVP?
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.