Tracking the Wetz Bets: 2022 WNBA Futures
A log of Calvin Wetzel’s WNBA championship and MVP bets throughout the 2022 season
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Not quite a year has passed since perhaps the wildest free agency period in WNBA history. If you ask Breanna Stewart, though, this next month-plus could even top it.
That’s why it’s time to start thinking about WNBA futures bets. Sportsbooks are irritatingly slow to update their WNBA odds, but during this hectic time of year, savvy bettors can take advantage of that.
There will likely be some windows of opportunity between when a big name agrees to a deal with a new team and when that team’s championship odds move. That means there’s money to be made by buying at the right time.
I’ve already placed one futures bet for this coming season: a Washington Mystics championship bet at +3000. Those odds were available for a few hours after the Mystics landed the No. 1 pick in last month’s lottery, but they have since disappeared and now sit at around +2200 at most books.
Last year was my first year betting the WNBA, and that came with plenty of mixed results. If you followed our tracker, you’ll remember that the final result was a gain of 3.34 units, despite a cold streak to close the season when player motivations became tougher to predict at the end of the regular season and through the playoffs. If you had started with a bankroll of $1,000 and bet $100 dollars on each game I bet, you’d have ended up with $1,334 at the end of the season.
For that 2021 tracker, I only included pregame bets, but it’s time to expand the arsenal for year two. I’ll be making several changes to how the Wetz Bets are operated this season. Most of them will be detailed in a piece leading up to opening day, but the first one is that I’ll be officially tracking all futures bets on this page.
Last May, we put out articles on the best championship bets and best MVP bets. While I didn’t officially track those plays, the Sky (+1000) and Jonquel Jones (+1300) both made their respective lists.
I’m not counting on hitting both winners again, and even if I do, there will also be several losses — Chicago was one of two teams I bet on and Jones was one of eight players. But I do think there will be value in certain spots, so it’s worth logging the specifics in one place. Just know if you tail these bets that I’m still relatively new to the game and can’t guarantee a net positive.
It’s also important to note that I sometimes utilize the cash-out feature some sportsbooks offer, meaning that I cash the bet early based on its current value rather than waiting until the end of the season. For example, last year I cashed out the +10000 Betnijah Laney MVP bet when her odds reached +1600. That line later moved to +1400 before rising again, so I didn’t quite hit its peak value, but I came away with a 250% profit on the original bet (e.g. if you had placed a $10 bet on Laney when I did and cashed out when I did, you would have received your original $10 back plus $25 in winnings). If I had played it out, that profit would have been 0% since Laney didn’t win the MVP.
Those cashouts will be part of my tracking here as well, so you’ll be able to see exactly how I played my bets and how much I gained or lost on each one. Since lines move over time, I’ll be tweeting each play as I place it as well as each cash out. If you’re interested in tailing these in real-time, make sure to follow us at @herhoopstats on Twitter to get those notifications as soon as the bets are placed so you can get your action down while the lines are still available.
One other important clarification for this year’s bets is that I’ll be varying my unit sizes and betting “to win” rather than “to risk.” The next article will have more details on this as well, but the short explanation is that I will be risking larger amounts on bets I am more confident in as well using amounts that will win me a certain amount of units in the end. In my Mystics bet, for example, I risked 0.0333 units — sort of a goofy number — because that was the amount needed in order to win a round number of one unit.
On that note, let’s get to the bets:
CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES
12/19: Washington Mystics
Odds: +3000
Book: FanDuel
Units risked: 0.0333
To win: 1 unit
2/4: Phoenix Mercury
Odds: +800
Book: DraftKings
Units risked: 0.125
To win: 1 unit
2/5: Los Angeles Sparks
Odds: +6600
Book: PointsBet
Units risked: 0.015
To win: 0.99 units
MVP FUTURES
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
Haven’t subscribed to the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter yet?
This is probably a stupid question but when looking at wnba odds… I see stupid (who makes these? Have they watched a game)?
How does someone bet if not in Vegas?