WNBA MVP Odds Shifts
WNBA MVP Odds Shifts
Analyzing the changes in WNBA futures odds over the first half of the season: Part II
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PointsBet didn’t offer WNBA MVP markets at the start of the season, but on May 22, just over a week into the season, they posted their first odds. Breanna Stewart was the favorite at +210, but Jonquel Jones, who started tied for sixth at +1300, slowly gained ground until she passed Stewart on June 9. The Connecticut star has been the favorite ever since.
Which players joined Jones in bettering their odds over the first half of the season, and which players saw their odds plummet as games got underway? Let’s take a look at the biggest movers in the MVP futures odds so far.
Biggest risers
In addition to Jones, Tina Charles and Betnijah Laney have seen their stock increase significantly. There were also two players added to the board on July 3: Kahleah Copper and Jonquel’s teammate Brionna Jones. Both broke out last season and have taken another step forward this season, and both converted that momentum into their first All-Star appearance.
Charles returned to the court this year after shooting 39% from the field in her last season in 2019 and missing the Wubble in 2020. At age 32, the books understandably didn’t have her in the top 12. Between her much-improved three-point shot and the increased volume she’s gotten from Delle Donne’s absence, Charles has vaulted all the way to second, passing Breanna Stewart in the process. Delle Donne’s presence could change things, but more than halfway through the season Charles is on pace to break Diana Taurasi’s 15-year-old record for scoring average. Charles’ current average of 26.3 puts her a full point ahead of Taurasi’s 2006 mark (25.3).
Like Brionna Jones and Copper, Betnijah Laney broke out in the Bradenton bubble last season and has taken another leap forward this year. After starting at +10000 odds to win the MVP, Laney stormed out of the gates this season to lead New York’s hot start. Less than two years after being cut by Indiana, Laney is on track to become just the fourth player in league history to average a points/rebounds/assists line of at least 19/4/5, and the first since Candace Parker in 2015.
Jewell Loyd also deserves a special mention here, even though her odds (+5000) are almost back to where they started. The Gold Mamba came out white-hot in May and June, averaging 18.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game over that stretch, and her start was enough to move her from +6000 (tied for 17th) to +800 (tied for fourth at the time).
Biggest fallers
The list of players who have fallen the furthest is mostly an unfortunate collection of injuries. Sabrina Ionescu, Candace Parker, Diana Taurasi, and Nneka Ogwumike have all missed time, and all have seen their odds at least triple since the preseason.
Ionescu technically only missed two games, so her fall from +600 to +8000 isn’t solely based on missed time. When she returned, she had her minutes managed and came off the bench for four games. The former Oregon standout showed a lot of rust during that stretch, shooting 3-for-20 from the floor. By the time she was inserted back into the starting lineup on June 26, her odds had already dropped to +2000.
Parker’s missed time came at the beginning of the season — after playing in Chicago’s season opener, she missed the next eight games. After returning on June 9, Parker’s odds actually improved over the next several weeks, going from +4000 to +2000 at one point. On the final day of the first half of the season, however, her odds regressed all the way to +7000.
Then there are those who have dropped off the list entirely. Some of those are due to injuries as well, such as Delle Donne and Chiney Ogwumike. Others, like Charli Collier and Awak Kuier, simply haven’t gotten enough minutes to warrant realistic MVP consideration.
Here is the timeline of the top contenders in PointsBet’s MVP odds.
This is Part 7 of our 2021 WNBA betting series. Here are our previous installments:
This series is about learning, so we want to hear from you! If you have any questions or any betting topics you’d like to see covered, please feel free to let us know in the comments or tweet at us @herhoopstats.
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. You can also buy Her Hoop Stats gear, such as laptop stickers, mugs, and shirts!
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