2023-24 WNBA Offseason Guides: Dallas Wings
Our breakdowns of where WNBA teams stand heading into the offseason continue with the Dallas Wings
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Previously published 2023-24 Offseason Guides:
Seattle Storm
Phoenix Mercury
Indiana Fever
Los Angeles Sparks
Chicago Sky
Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream
Minnesota Lynx
2023 record: 22-18, defeated Atlanta 2-0 in first-round, eliminated 3-0 in semifinals by Las Vegas
2024 draft picks: The Wings have two 2024 first-round picks, Chicago's from the Marina Mabrey trade and their own, which will be the No. 5 and No. 9 overall. Their second-round pick is going to Washington as part of the trade for Stephanie Soares, so their only other 2024 pick is their own third-rounder.
Free agents: Diamond DeShields (UFA), Odyssey Sims (UFA), Satou Sabally (RFA)
Under contract: Arike Ogunbowale, Natasha Howard, Teaira McCowan, Awak Kuier, Crystal Dangerfield, Veronica Burton, Maddy Siegrist, Lou Lopez Sénéchal
2023 performance: While it came to a disappointing conclusion in the three-game sweep by Las Vegas, 2023 largely has to be considered another season of progress for the Dallas Wings. Both in the standings and by net rating the Wings finished fourth, with a meaningful gap between them and the trailing pack. That's better than any season the franchise has managed since they were still known as the Detroit Shock, well over a decade ago. They backed it up with two double-digit wins over Atlanta in the first round, and then making the Aces work pretty damn hard to dispatch them in the semifinals, even if it was 3-0.
They did find themselves leaning increasingly on their veteran players in order to achieve that progression, but the core of Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally and Teaira McCowan are all still in that sweet spot where they're hitting their prime but with enough youth to still be improving. Sabally finally managing to have a largely healthy WNBA season was key to their step forward this year, although she struggled a little in the playoffs. The combination of adding Natasha Howard and new head coach Latricia Trammell seemed to help the group cohere more than in previous years, and even Ogunbowale showed some willingness to try on defense. They still looked a little undisciplined at times, but the vast majority of teams have to suffer through a few painful growth years before they really break through. As long as the forward momentum continues, 2023 could be looked back on as a vital step in the Wings' journey to where they eventually want to be.
Offseason finances: Now the problem with the core of a team growing up together and adding a piece or two along the way is that all those young pieces tend to get more expensive right around the same time. However, Dallas likely saw this coming, and the costs of the upcoming offseason were part of why they were willing to move on from Marina Mabrey before the 2023 season (along with her own desire to change teams). Ogunbowale, McCowan and Howard are all signed to hefty contracts, taking up a big chunk of cap room. But everyone else under contract is still on their rookie scale deal (plus Crystal Dangerfield, who's signed to a deal at right around a rookie-scale price). If they keep the eight players all currently under contract, they would have $395,676 left for the remaining three or four spots on the roster.
Assuming they're willing to go with an 11-player roster, that's enough to add the 2024 No. 5 pick ($73,439), sign last year's No. 4 overall pick Stephanie Soares ($76,535), and give restricted free agent Satou Sabally the max ($208,219). That would leave over $37,000 in space, which is nowhere near enough to add a 12th player at the start of the season but could allow some room for manoeuvre if they want to make deals along the way. In the scenario above, the only other signings they could make before training camp would be rookie-scale deals and training camp contracts. Someone like Kalani Brown might get better offers than that after her performances for the Wings this year.
Offseason priorities: Item No. 1 is obviously to get Satou Sabally re-signed. She seemed happy in Dallas this year, finally able to show what she can do when she's healthy, so hopefully that won't be too problematic. She's a restricted free agent, so the Wings could simply match any offer sheet she signed elsewhere, but we've seen several players over the years reach this stage of their WNBA careers and push for a move when their initial rookie-scale contract expires. Dallas would demand a huge haul in return but will undoubtedly prefer to simply retain her, even if it costs them the full max. She's not eligible for the supermax (unless the Wings core her, which makes no sense with a restricted free agent), so compared to Ogunbowale and Howard it might feel like they're saving money anyway only paying Sabally the $208,219.
After that, it depends on how much they're willing to change the core that this year's successful season was built on. If they're keeping Ogunbowale, Howard, McCowan and Sabally it's hard to make big changes because of how much cap space that group swallows. By way of comparison, if Sabally gets the max, those four would be on $880,253 combined next year; Las Vegas's big four of Wilson, Plum, Gray and Young will combine for $766,217 next season. That's the difference of a solid mid-range veteran. My guess is that Dallas will bring all four back (barring a Sabally trade demand that upsets the apple cart), stay young elsewhere, and hope to build from within. This year probably went too well for them to make big changes again unless forced into it.
Beyond the cap maths, the other issue in Dallas could be one we've seen the Wings run into before - a roster crunch. They have eight under contract before considering Sabally, two rotation vets from this year in Brown and Odyssey Sims, an unsigned lottery pick from this year in Stephanie Soares, plus two first-round picks in the upcoming 2024 draft (and even Diamond DeShields, if they have any interest in re-signing her after she spent the entire 2023 season on their bench). That's a lot more than 11 in total. So I suppose the 'consolidation' trade that has been a theoretical possibility for years could be an option again, turning several pieces into one as an upgrade. However, unless one of their big four is involved, the one piece coming back would still need to be fairly cheap. They might like an upgrade at point guard, where the playoffs saw them once again flipping between Dangerfield, Sims and Veronica Burton at will, but it's hard to come up with a name that would fit in their space. Don't be surprised if they once again bring everyone they can to training camp and simply have to cut their way down to a legal roster.
Future assets: As mentioned, they still have to sign Soares (who could technically re-enter the draft in the same scenario I wrote about regarding Nyara Sabally this year, but that's unlikely). They also still have the rights to this year's third-round pick Paige Robinson, and suspended rights to Latvian gunner Kitija Laksa. Finally, as part of the Mabrey trade, they have swap rights to Chicago's first-round pick in 2025. So they can play as well as they like next season and still sit comfortably with the knowledge that if the Sky are bad in 2024, then they could be picking in the lottery yet again anyway.
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I like Burton too so I looked up her stats. She's just a very poor shooter, which means her defender can help on the others. You have to have a minimum of offensive production, and after two years, Burton doesn't appear to have cleared that bar.
Have to disagree with Josh. For Dallas to improve, they need a point guard who can play both ends of the floor. Tiny guards must be exceptional to survive in postseason, and though Dangerfield can be good, she is not exceptional.
Dallas needs a quality point guard to challenge for the title, and I'm not exactly sure who that might be.