2023-24 WNBA Offseason Guides: New York Liberty
In the penultimate entry in this series, we take a look at where the Liberty stand heading into the 2024 WNBA offseason
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Previously published 2023-24 Offseason Guides:
Seattle Storm
Phoenix Mercury
Indiana Fever
Los Angeles Sparks
Chicago Sky
Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream
Minnesota Lynx
Dallas Wings
Connecticut Sun
2023 record: 32-8, defeated Washington 2-0 in first-round, defeated Connecticut 3-1 in semifinals, eliminated 3-1 in Finals by Las Vegas
2024 draft picks: The Liberty have all their own 2024 draft picks, including a first-rounder that will be No. 11 overall. They also have an extra second-rounder from Chicago thanks to the four-team Michaela Onyenwere trade back in February.
Free agents: Jonquel Jones (uncoreable unrestricted free agent), Breanna Stewart (UFA), Stefanie Dolson (UFA), Jocelyn Willoughby (RFA), Marine Johannès (Reserved), Han Xu (Suspended-Contract Expired)
Under contract: Sabrina Ionescu, Courtney Vandersloot, Betnijah Laney, Kayla Thornton, Nyara Sabally
2023 performance: Right now, to both the Liberty organisation and their fans, the 2023 season probably feels like a failure. And maybe there's an element of truth to that when you assemble a 'superteam' and come up short of a championship. However, this year was a major step forward for the New York Liberty. Their 32-8 (.800) record was comfortably the best in team history; they made their first trip to the Finals since the last time a team repeated as champions, over 20 years ago; they established themselves a destination team for free agents; and they won the franchise's first ever trophy by beating Las Vegas in the final of the Commissioner's Cup back in August. The disappointment of the Finals is real and recent, but this was a year of real progress.
It felt like it took them a while to settle as a group, which is natural for a team bringing in so many major new pieces, but they were winning most of their games from the very start anyway. This was an example of assembling a roster with a little drafting, a bunch of trading, and some significant free agency moves to build a group with overwhelming talent and it worked. That isn't always the case. We've seen plenty of other supposed 'superteams' implode for a variety of reasons without ever winning anything (the recent Brooklyn Nets debacle, for example, or even the Phoenix Mercury of a couple of years ago). They didn't manage to clear the final hurdle - largely just because they ran into one of the best teams in league history in the current version of the Las Vegas Aces - but the result only feels bitter because they raised expectations so high. Now the question is, can they come again and go one step further?
Offseason finances: The Liberty only have five players under contract for next season, and two of the players who are unsigned are former MVPs. That would be a little scary if those two players hadn't chosen New York as their destination before last season, and then generally expressed their happiness with where they are now. Only the players themselves know for sure, but it seems a fair assumption that both Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones would like to return to this squad (although Jones could've signed an extension before the end of the season and didn't, for what that's worth).
Jones can't be cored, because she's reached the limit of two years played under a core-designated contract, but Stewart can. In fact, Stewart (and her agent), may well want to be cored. Assuming she signs for at least two years, that would remove the option for teams to core her for the rest of her WNBA career (as long as rules don't become stricter in future Collective Bargaining Agreements). It's also the only way for her to meet the criteria to receive up to the supermax of $241,984 in 2024 rather than be limited to the regular max of $208,219. Jones, because she was traded to New York rather than changing teams as a free agent, is already eligible for up to the supermax.
The players are still going to have to work with the Liberty front office if they want to keep the core of this squad together. Their $703,803 in cap space is not enough to retain the current five, give Stewart and Jones the supermax, and then legally fill the final four spots on the roster. However, it's not a million miles away. If those last four players were all on the base minimum of $64,154, there would be $447,187 left for Stewart and Jones to split. The Liberty would probably like a little more room than that to work with - at least enough for reserved qualifying offers to Marine Johannès and Han Xu, or to sign a couple of players on the veteran minimum of $76,535 rather than that base minimum - but the space is there to give their free agent stars at least something vaguely approaching what they're worth.
Of course, as we've seen in various places in recent years, there's also the chance that players are willing to take a major discount to help their teams fill out the roster around them. If Stewart and/or Jones are willing to do that, then obviously the maths could change dramatically, and at least a little free agent shopping could be back on the table.
Offseason priorities: Despite the disappointing conclusion, it seems likely that New York will essentially try to just "go again" as long as Stewart and Jones are onboard. The other core pieces are all signed already, and Courtney Vandersloot is the only starter over 29. Unless anyone is disgruntled and wants out, making changes to that core in order to upgrade looks difficult - primarily because of how good they are already, rather than any issues with money or the cap.
However, a lot of the supporting roles around them could be re-cast. Johannès could be out due to France national team commitments in the year of the Paris Olympics (and Prioritization rules likely applying to her now). Han Xu might be reluctant to return after barely being used by Sandy Brondello this year on the rare occasions when Han was actually in town and available. Stefanie Dolson may be pushed out by the cap crunch of trying to pay the rest of the roster, and after four years of waiting on Jocelyn Willoughby to break through, she could be gone as well.
So rebuilding the bench is likely to be high on the list for Brondello and general manager Jonathan Kolb, potentially while not being able to spend much money. Finding a piece or two who can strengthen the perimeter defense while not taking too much away from the offense - i.e. players who'll actually crack the rotation, even in the playoffs - would be useful. They clearly need a Plan B on the perimeter, which they didn't really have this year for the toughest opposition at moments of highest tension.
All of that, of course, is assuming that Stewart and Jones are coming back. Those are the first priorities, including the decision on whether it's necessary to core Stewart. If Jones decides to walk away it would obviously be disappointing after only having her in the fold for a year, but it would open up some room to go shopping, presumably for free agent posts to replace her (Ogwumike? Griner? Delle Donne? Brionna Jones?). But if they're both back, it becomes all about the bench.
Future assets: As another part of that Michaela Onyenwere trade, New York own swap rights to the Phoenix Mercury's first-round pick in 2025, which could be very valuable given the current state of the Mercury and the potential draft pool that year. They also continue to hold draft rights to a host of talented foreign youngsters, including Leonie Fiebich, Raquel Carrera and Marine Fauthoux. 2024 may not be the easiest year to entice them over with an Olympic Games on the horizon, but they could help fill out a bench with talent at a cheap price.
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The reason for the disappointment was simple: The Liberty should never have lost game four, and if Gray was out for game five, should have won the series.
And the reason for the game four loss is obvious: Sandy Brondello is an old-school WNBA coach who was completely exposed by Becky Hammon (and her NBA training). If Jonquel Jones leaves, blame Brondello for failing to take full advantage of her skills in the playoffs. And of course, listening to that panicked huddle, and nearly incomprehensible instructions, in the last few seconds would make any professional question the ability of the coach and the chances of delivering under pressure.
It is almost incomprehensible how New York lost game four. It's as if the Liberty went into the game without Vandersloot and Laney and still won. The talent edge for New York was massive, yet the end result was a loss, and thus the crushing disappointment of the fans and players.
I have to agree about Brondello. Not a terrible coach, but rigid and unimaginative. She's been blessed with numerous All-Stars during her career -- most of them future Hall of Famers -- but has managed only one championship. Her husband/chief assistant Olaf Lange won two Euroleague titles in five years with UMMC. That sounds good, but is actually disappointing when you consider Ekaterinburg usually has All-Star level talent even on the bench. So, that Brondello-Lange combination has a history of getting you into the playoffs but not finishing the job.
Las Vegas under Laimbeer was in a similar good-but-not-good-enough state. Hammon took the Aces that extra mile. Part of it was developing Wilson, Young, and Plum to their fullest. Those players were already good or very good, but Becky was able to raise them another level (two for Young). That's before we get to the X's and O's.
Coming into the season, NY's bench was viewed as their advantage. However, except for Thornton, Sandy didn't use anyone regularly. Players either lost effectiveness, confidence or both. I don't remember if it was Myles Ehrlich or Jackie Powell, but one of them said that Han was only scheduled to attend the University Games. Nonetheless, Han ended up being recalled for the Asia Cup and the Asian Games. I have to believe that Han being glued to the bench was at least partially responsible for China's decision. Note that the Chinese bureaurcrats were much more lenient with Li Meng. She departed for Asia Cup six days later than Han and didn't leave for the other tournaments. I'm sure the Chinese saw Brondello relegating Han to last on the bench behind Nyara Sabally despite Xu's good performance the season before. Then, Sandy lost confidence in Nyara, and she disappeared too. Johannes received a lot of playing time, but her production declined as the season progressed. There was talk about Marine feeling insecure. Dolson never fully reclaimed her playing time after a midseason injury, and Willoughby never found a role. Overall, except for Thornton, the bench was mosly a nonfactor.
As for rebuilding NY's bench with cheap young talent, Brondello has a poor history of developing young players. She mostly ignores them. Just ask Courtney Williams, Isabelle Harrison, Sophie Cunningham, Alanna Smith, and even Ezi Magbegor. I'm sure Han will do well for a WNBA team one of these days. It's ironic that Brondello quickly yanked Lauren Jackson in that semifinal against China last year when Han scored a couple of baskets. We're talking about LAUREN JACKSON! Yes, LJ was 41 years old, but she scored 30 in the next game against Canada. No confidence in LJ against Han, but no confidence in Han in the WNBA regular season. Weird.